Our start-or-sits where our expert tries to out-predict his wife are quite popular. So we wanted to see if we could do a piece that actually beats an industry-standard site. Each week I’ll be taking three similarly ranked players and tell you if they are a start (they will score more than the average for the player currently at the position where they are ranked) or a sit (they will score less than the average). I’ll also rank them. Then, I’ll take the Yahoo Fantasy Football app’s predictions and see if I’m doing better or worse. At the end of week 4 fantasy football games, I’ll tally the scores: If I’m doing worse, I’ll have an exciting meltdown, then probably give up and start directing questions to the Yahoo app, because life is too short. The scoring will be HPPR, but the predictions work for 0 PPR or 1 point-per-reception scoring, as well.
Start or Sit Wayne Gallman, James White, or Adrian Peterson in Week Four
Start or Sit Wayne Gallman Week Four
Currently Ranked on ESPN: 24th
Average Weekly Score for the 24th-Ranked RB in 2019: 10.2
Wayne Gallman is probably the most popular player that people are wondering whether to start or sit in week 4. On the one hand, he is stepping in for last year’s #1 fantasy player, and he’s on a team with an improved offense. On the other hand, he is Wayne Gallman, the name itself reflects how average he is. Filling in for the injured Saquon Barkley, Gallman had 5 carries for 13 yards. The Giants play Washington, who has allowed a dismal 142 rushing yards per game(4th worst in the league). Still, the Bears could only muster up 90 rushing yards against them on Monday night, at less than 4 yards per carry. I’m pretty low on Gallman, and didn’t pick him up in any of my leagues. Still, he’s going to get the work against a soft defense, and the odds of him clearing 102 yards or getting a score are better than 50/50. I say start Wayne Gallman in week four.
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football predicts Gallman to have 10.67 points, so they also say to start Wayne Gallman in week four.
Start or Sit James White Week Four
Currently Ranked on ESPN: 22nd
Average Weekly Score for the 22nd-Ranked RB in 2019: 10.77
James White was a healthy scratch last week with his wife giving birth. This week, the barreling Patriots head to Buffalo, who is ranked 8th best in rushing yards allowed per game. However, a more accurate way to measure would probably be to examine how pass-catching running backs fared against the Bills. They’ve faced a trio of good pass catchers: Barkley, Le’Veon Bell, and Giovani Bernard. None of those had more than 32 receiving yards. That’s enough for me to rule that you should sit James White in week four.
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football predicts White to score 9.57 points, which means they also want to sit James White in week four.
Start or Sit Adrian Peterson Week Four
Currently Ranked on ESPN: 30th
Average Weekly Score for the 30th-Ranked RB in 2019: 9.07
Adrian Peterson has been a desperation start ever since Derrius Guice went down with an injury. Guice definitely won’t play at the Giants on Sunday, leaving AP to again get the bulk of the carries. The Giants’s run defense has been bottom-third. Still, Peterson hasn’t topped a dozen carries in a game, and has averaged 2.8 yards per carry. I don’t see this being a high-scoring shootout, and there’s even a chance AP gets a short yardage touchdown and still doesn’t clear 9 points. Sit Adrian Peterson week four.
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football estimates Peterson will score 11.24 points, so they say Start Adrian Peterson in week four.
Wayne Gallman, James White, and Adrian Peterson ranked:
Evan Hoovler (that’s me): Gallman > White > Peterson
Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football: Peterson > Gallman > White