Welcome back to another season of 30 Team Parlay, where I give you all the NFL gambling advice I can muster in my soul to bring you the best odds at making some money. 2018 was a roller coaster for NFL gambling advice. I made the mistake of gambling against Patrick Mahomes (as did many) and paid the price. Bad beats aside, though, the numbers don’t lie: I was correct on 63.3% of my season under/over win totals, I laid out a 5 team parlay week 2 (when most everyone was still trying to get their head around which teams were bad and which teams were surprisingly good) that brought a 32-to-1 return on your bet, and had a four week streak of hitting at least one 3 team parlay.
It’s a new year, it’s new money, and it’s time to get back to gambling! Every week i’m going to bring you the best bets and parlays to maximize your NFL gambling satisfaction.
And as always, and most importantly: Never gamble what you can’t afford to lose. Gambling is inherently a loss leader and only the best of the best can consistently stay ahead of the curve and stay in the black. Never bet beyond your means: If you only have 10 bucks to bet, then don’t bet 50. Gambling can be a great way to enhance your NFL football viewing experience, but I promise you it’s not worth losing everything.
And as we dawn on another year, just a reminder on why it’s 30 Team Parlay: Because you never bet on the Raiders, and you never bet against the Patriots.
Now, let’s look at the Super Bowl odds and team under/overs on all 32 NFL teams and find the best NFL Super Bowl winner gambling bets. We will sort teams from most shortest odds to longest odds.
Team: New England Patriots
2018 Record: 11-5
2019 Strength of Schedule: 27th Hardest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 7 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 11
I nearly pulled off one of my favorite betting moments last year in the Super Bowl. This was a longshot bet: 150 to 1 odds that 14 or fewer points would be scored in the Super Bowl. I’d put 10 dollars on the bet and as the minutes clicked away, I genuinely thought I was going to win. The Patriots had the ball with just over 2 minutes left, and they had a second and two. It appeared that they had a first down but didn’t get the ball placement. They didn’t get the yards on third down, and kicked a field goal in the final minute and a half of the game which put them at a 10 point lead. If they had gotten the first down, they would have been able to ice the game and win the Super Bowl, and I would have won 1500 dollars. That one hurt a bit.
Anyway, I never recommend betting on Super Bowl odds this low under any circumstance, unless you feel confident enough to parlay it with the winner of the opposing conference’s championship. With that being said, the Patriots are literally in this every year. You can almost set your clock to the fact that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are just gonna be contenders.
You could write a science fiction novel that revolves around a dystopian race in 2040 that is controlled by robots, but humans have free will for one day of the year only because Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, who are recognized by the robots to be the true gods, will still be playing in the Super Bowl.
As for the wins, while the Jets could be on the come up in the East, it’s still a division that is pretty much booty. The Dolphins are actively trying to get relegated to the XFL where owner Stephen Ross can find more like minded owners, and the Bills continue to be a beautiful disaster that employs the worst looking running back committee I’ve seen in a long time. The Patriots might push here, but they don’t exactly have a murderers’ row of a schedule, so 12 wins is definitely in play.
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
2018 Record: 12-4
2019 Strength of Schedule: 5th Hardest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 8 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 10.5
Going into last year, I was skeptical of the Chiefs because Patrick Mahomes hadn’t showed himself, and there was reason to wonder if Andy Reid could evolve in a changing NFL. Their preseason performances didn’t do much to change my feelings on the team. Then the regular season happened and I looked like a total NFL gambling advice noob.
Mahomes had a lot of “he can’t do that over multiple seasons” variance in his performance, but the arm is there, and the decision-making ability is there. They have made strides to improve their defense, even though the defense still sucks. They had the moral stamina to get rid of Kareem Hunt, but couldn’t bring themselves to get rid of Tyreek Hill, too. Ya know, when you are the Chiefs, and you’ve had literally no players that have ever had terrible abuse histories, you can afford to keep a bad egg or two.
Anyway, I stand by my statement to never gamble on a line that low for a Super Bowl win, but with the Chargers having a never ending array of injuries, the Broncos employing Joe Flacco, and the Raiders being the Raiders, I‘d say hitting the over on 10.5 wins is pretty much a lock.
Team: New Orleans Saints
2018 Record:13-3
2019 Strength of Schedule: 22nd Hardest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 9 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 10.5
You could argue that the Saints were jobbed out of going to the Super Bowl last year in what could be Drew Brees’ last great run, but if one play makes or breaks your season like that, then maybe you should have, oh, I don’t know, played better during the first 59 minutes to not put yourself in that position [Editor’s note: This isn’t exactly fair- They also should have played better in overtime]. Just a thought. In response to this, the NFL has added an asinine new replay rule allowing teams to challenge pass interference calls. Roger Goodell and the NFL look at the time an average baseball game takes and salivate at the idea of having that much TV time.
The Saints still return almost everyone at every key position. Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara are still here to help the team average 500 yards of offense every week.
Team: Los Angeles Rams
2018 Record: 13-3
2019 Strength of Schedule: 27th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 11-1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 10.5
The Rams represented the NFC in the Super Bowl last year. Just don’t mention that in the city of New Orleans. After they reached the Super Bowl, they proceeded to crap the bed on a level reminiscent of the Broncos’ Super Bowl teams of the 80’s that would show up and get their croups beat in. These low odds might be a product as much of a potentially very soft division (more on this with the 49ers) than anything else. There are red flags for sure. Jared Goff looked badly exposed multiple times late in the season. Todd Gurley might not be able to make it an entire season on his knee. Ndamukong Suh is gone.
Reaching the Super Bowl feels unlikely. Super Bowl losers have a long, well known history of not only not making the Super Bowl the next year, but actually missing the playoffs completely (Patriots don’t count). So let’s look at the 10.5 wins: They should be able to knock out 4 easy wins in the division against the 49ers and Cardinals. If they split with the Seahawks, they get to 5-1. They have two more gimme wins in the Bengals and Buccaneers. If they split against the Steelers, Falcons, Ravens, and Bears, that gets them to 7-3, meaning they still have to go four and two the rest of the way. I’d bet the under.
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
2018 Record: 9-7
2019 Strength of Schedule: 26th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 14-1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 9
The Eagles have established themselves over the past few seasons as being incredibly shrewd in free agency, building with spare pieces to fill gaps of smart drafting. The issue is at quarterback, where some issues seem to keep arising with former number two pick Carson Wentz. After tearing his ACL in 2017, he broke his back and then tried to keep playing before giving way to Nick Foles again. On top of that, there are reports that Wentz isn’t well liked in his own locker room, with Jay Cutlerish words being thrown his way: “Selfish.” “Aloof.” “Standoffish.”
On top of that, Nick Foles is gone, too. His first backup is Nate Sudfeld, who isn’t good AND is out for two months. Beyond that is Cody Kessler, continuing to try to be a mediocre backup for every team in the NFL. Behind him is Josh McCown, who has made mediocre comebacks more than Saw movies regurgitate plotlines.
I’m gonna go ahead and pull a full-on stay away on all bets on the Eagles. They could make you look smart, but they are just as likely to make you look very stupid and very broke.
Team: Los Angeles Chargers
2018 Record: 12-4
2019 Strength of Schedule: 16th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 15-1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 12
I’m honestly shocked the odds haven’t fallen on this team. They have lost a couple offensive linemen already, and top safety Derwin James is injured as well. I say I’m shocked because I feel like there would be value in a drop in their odds or wins. I really like the Chargers this season, assuming Melvin Gordon eventually rejoins the team. I’d like them better as a bet for a Super Bowl win at around 20-1 or 25-1.
On the wins side, I’d really like this team at 10.5 wins because I HATE this team at 12. The injuries haven’t dropped this line down, but there is still a week until the season starts. I’d monitor these lines to see if either one changes. If either does, it feels like a pretty good play.
Team: Cleveland Browns
2018 Record: 7-8-1
2019 Strength of Schedule: 23rd Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 15 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 9
ALERT!!! ALERT!!! HYPE TRAIN OUT OF CONTROL!!!
Momentum was on the Browns side after the 2018 season, and then the team went out and got better. They traded for Odell Beckham. They signed Kareem Hunt (every team needs a creep I guess). Baker Mayfield is on a storyline for MVP. But where there is this much smoke, there is probably some fire. The Browns are good. Probably the best team they’ve had since Earnest Byner was fumbling the city’s heart. There is so much talent on this team that a lot of people forget that Myles Garrett is on this team and is absolutely amazing.
I’m not willing to bet the Super Bowl because I really, really, really, really, really don’t trust Freddie Kitchens at head coach, so let’s look at a much more interesting number: the season win under/over. The team has been gifted a soft start to the season, with games against the Titans and Jets that should be wins if this team wants to be a contender. Their schedule gets tough for four games, with them being pitted against the Patriots, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers. It’s not out of the realm to think they go 1-3 in that run and are sitting at 3-3 after six games. No worries though, as their schedule goes pudding soft from there. Non-conference, they get Buffalo, Miami, Denver, and Arizona in their non-conference schedule. That should have them at 7-3 with their conference games to look at. They get two games against the Bengals. That will get them to nine wins, as the Bengals are terrible. All they have to do is go 1-3 against the Steelers and Bengals to hit the over. I’ll take that bet every time.
Team: Chicago Bears
2018 Record: 12-4
2019 Strength of Schedule: 5th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 19 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 9
What you think of the Bears this season depends almost entirely on what you think of the NFC North as a whole. The Packers will be better this season. The Vikings are still good. Some people are inexplicably (looking in your direction, Sports Illustrated) thinking the Lions will be good this year. If all of those things happen, this division is going to turn into a slugfest.
The Bears also have some regression trends going against them, namely the health of their team last season and their turnovers created. This defense has a scary amount of similarities to the Jaguars of 2017: They also lost their offensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, who went to coach the Broncos. He was replaced by Chuck Pagano, but nobody is quite sure what the defense is going to look like, because nobody important has played a single snap in the preseason. I’m not even gonna waste more space on the kicking situation. We’ve all seen it talked to death.
I’m passing on the Super Bowl, but for a 12-win team the prior season, the under/over at nine is a very interesting bet. Even if they lose week one to the Packers, they have four straight winnable games after that against the Vikings, Broncos, Redskins and Raiders in London before their bye week. That should put them at 4-1. Now, can they go 6-5 the rest of the way? They have two games against the Lions, who I refuse to believe are good. That gets them to 6-1. They also have the Giants, which gets them to seven. Lets say they split the season with the Packers and Vikings. That gets them to 7-2. A Giants game is a gimme, getting them to 8-2. They would need to go 2-4 against the following teams: Saints, Chargers, Eagles, Rams, Cowboys, Chiefs. The Cowboys, Eagles, and Rams all provide winnable games and a path to 10 victories. I’ll take the over.
Team: Green Bay Packers
2018 Record: 6-9-1
2019 Strength of Schedule: 14th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 19 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 9
The combination of Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams is one of the best skill set combos in the entire NFL. Just based on those three, you would believe that this is a contending team every year. The issue is: the Packers have not a single goddamn clue what they are doing at head coach. They let Mike McCarthy get massaged, literally, during team meetings, dopily stroll up and down the sidelines without a single clue what he was doing, and they actually let this go on for enough years that Aaron Rodgers, one of the most talented people in the NFL, openly hated the guy. After they finally let McCarthy return to his old job as a Bob’s Big Boy sign, they were in a position to bring in any coach they wanted, as there was a line of people willing to work with that much talent on offense. They brought in…
Matt LaFleur. For you non-coordinator buffs out there, LaFleur was the offensive coordinator for the LA Rams in 2017. The team thought so much of him, that they up and let him go for a lateral move, as he became the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans. Interesting fact for those who don’t know: In the NFL, there is an actual rule saying that teams can bar assistant coaches on their team from taking the same job or a lesser job on a different team as long as he is under contract with his current team. The Rams just up and let him go.
What happened after that? The Rams went to the Super Bowl and the Titans had the 25th ranked offense in the NFL. It wasn’t that long ago that people could have a legitimate conversation over who the better quarterback was, Jared Goff or Marcus Mariota. After his trash season last year, there are people wondering if Mariota might lose his job to Ryan Goddamn Tannehill. You know how bad things have to go for you when Ryan Tannehill, who would probably lose his job to Chad Pennington today, is the guy letting you keep the seat warm for him. And Matt LaFleur was the architect of that offense last year.
I still think the talent is there, and Rodgers will just audible his way out of every bad play call, and this team will get to ten wins this year. I’ll take the over, but not for too much, because I genuinely think this coach might screw it up.
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
2018 Record: 9-6-1
2019 Strength of Schedule: 19th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 19 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 9
Get rid of your best running back? Check.
Get rid of your best wide receiver? Check.
Don’t find a suitable replacement for your aging quarterback? Check.
Yep, Pittsburgh is right in it’s sweet spot. You know for a fact they love this. Nobody in the NFL this side of Bill Belichick gets off harder by running as many no-name players onto the field than the Steelers and the Rooney family. That’s the type of football they were born and bred for. It’s shocking their entire stadium wasn’t built to resemble Franco Harris standing over the word “GRIT.”
Needless to say, I’m a complete and total no-go on their Super Bowl odds. The odds are this low because the Steelers are a heavily-bet public team.
For those that don’t know: A “public” team is a team that gets heavily bet on because they have large fan bases of loyal fans, built over generations. The Packers, Bears, Steelers, and Cowboys are public teams. Count the Patriots in that group, too. Vegas knows that these teams are going to get bet more heavily than others, so their lines have to be worse to reflect that. That’s why Pittsburgh, a team I don’t even think makes the playoffs this year, is sitting at only 19-to-1 odds. I’m also fairly confident in taking the under, regardless of the Steelers middling schedule. Remember, strength of schedule is based on the records last year of the teams they are playing. The Browns are better than last year.
In fact, I’m putting definite money on the Steelers hitting the under on wins, and I very well might parlay that with the Browns hitting the over.
Team: Dallas Cowboys
2018 Record: 10-6
2019 Strength of Schedule: 14th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 25 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 9
The Cowboys show up to 2019 with the exact same caveats that they have had every season under Jason Garrett: Can this team be disciplined enough to not shoot themselves in both feet, then the groin every game? The answer has always been an emphatic “NO!” Now their crypt keeper of an owner is getting in a passive aggressive pissing match with the best player they have had in 20 years. Oh, and their tight end unretired after being bad at announcing football games so he could be bad at football. Oh, and their quarterback, who is basically a glorified Jason Campbell, is asking for 40 million dollars per year, much like I’m asking for a steamy night with Daniella Monet.
With that being said, if you don’t believe in the Eagles (I’m on the fence) there is only one other team that is actually going to compete for anything this season in the NFC East, and you are looking at them. There under over is at 9, and they should get four wins just by beating the Redskins and the Giants twice in the division. Can they go .500 in their other 12 games to get to ten wins? Probably, with the caveat noted above. Also, they really really really need Ezekiel Elliott in their backfield. I’ve written 15k words across multiple websites previewing the NFL season, and I still can’t tell you the name of the guy who would be starting running back on this team.
If Zeke comes back, plays a full season and Amari Cooper can replicate his Cowboys season last year, then I don’t specifically hate the Cowboys bet, but (and you are going to keep hearing this from me) I really don’t trust the coach.
Team: Minnesota Vikings
2018 Record: 8-7-1
2019 Strength of Schedule: 10th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 30 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 9
Is this going to be the year? Is any year going to be the year for this team? I see 30 to 1 odds on the Super Bowl for this team, and I look at their roster and think, “yes, this is a good bet.” But it’s been a good bet for three seasons, and for three seasons, this team has found a way to underperform. Steph Diggs and Adam Thielen is a formidable wide receiving duo. Kyle Rudolph, when healthy, is a really good tight end, and they used a second round pick to bring in Irv Smith at the position. Dalvin Cook is a good runner when healthy and Alex Mattison has been turning heads in camp.
And then you get to the quarterback position: Kirk Cousins is perpetually going to be good enough to get you to a .500 record. They really aren’t going to be more than that. Part of this might have to do with the porous offensive line that the Vikings run out every week. Part of it is because, in the 4th quarter, Cousins shrinks in the moment. He is not built to engineer comebacks. If he can get the team out to an early lead and the defense is playing well, then he can manage a game. He isn’t going to be the guy to come roaring back.
Going over the schedule, I have them at 8-5 going into the final three games of the season. One win gets them a push. Two gets them the win on the bet. Their last three opponents? Chargers, Packers, Bears. 8-8. Right where they should probably be.
Team: Houston Texans
2018 Record: 11-5
2019 Strength of Schedule: 4th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 30 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 8.5
Part of the reason the Texans have the 4th hardest schedule in the NFL is weighted on the Colts’ record last year, so we can pretty well throw this out the window. There is a very real possibility that if this team wasn’t coached by a corn cob in a windbreaker, they would go 5-1 in the division and really only need to get to nine wins to win this division. Then, once the playoffs start, anything can happen. Coach Bill O’Brien is allergic to competent offensive line play and I secretly think he puts a belt around his neck and auto-erotic asphyxiates to footage of Deshaun Watson scrambling around because his offensive line is essentially a barn door fallen partially off the hinge. The offensive line has been bad and continues to be bad in the current form.
This is mitigated a bit by how good Watson is. It, of course, doesn’t help that the only thing O’Brien loves more than bad offensive line play is a lack of depth and talent at running back. Now that Lamar Miller has gone down with an injury, it’s the Duke Johnson show. Johnson was an okay complimentary back who struggled to get playing time behind Carlos Hyde and Isaiah Crowell for the Browns back when they sucked out loud. Behind him is Buddy Howell who, judging by the name is actually a golden retriever.
I don’t think Andrew Luck going down helps the Texans as much as it helps the Jaguars. I do believe that the Super Bowl odds are in a good range, though. And I very much like the over on 8.5 wins.
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
2018 Record: 5-11
2019 Strength of Schedule: 3rd Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 31 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 8
Every year, there is a team which underperformed the previous season that wayyyyyyyyy too many people bandwagon jump on, driving the numbers out of whack. After their surprisingly deep playoff run in 2017, the Jaguars well apart last year, driven by injuries, underperformance, and Blake Bortles-related offensive inertia.
They have stuffed Bortles into a cannon and shot him towards the sun, replacing him with “guy who was good as an Eagle and bad everywhere else” Nick Foles. A garbage can with a loosely spinning windmill on a skateboard is a better quarterback option than Bortles, which is helping to inflate the Jaguars numbers. They should see positive regression towards the mean when it comes to several of their defensive stats, including takeaways. Leonard Fournette might, MIGHT, be better with a decent quarterback at the helm. DeDe Westbrook seems to have a connection with Foles and seems poised to break out this season. There is reason for upside.
A quick look at the schedule shows that the key to them making the over on wins is a three game stretch in November that has them playing the Colts, Titans, and Buccaneers. If they go 3-0 in those games, that means they only have to go 6-7 in the rest of their games to make the over. I’ll fade the Super Bowl Bet, but I like the over on the Jaguars, possibly parlayed with under on the Titans.
Team: Seattle Seahawks
2018 Record: 10-6
2019 Strength of Schedule: 19th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 32 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 8.5
Now here is some good old fashioned gambling that I like. Why do I like it? Unlike a lot of teams, the Seahawks are a well-coached team! Noted conspiracy theory loon Pete Carroll always has teams that are ready to play week in and week out. This team has been expected to go into rebuild mode for years, and I’m at the point where I give up trying to figure out when/if it will happen. Russell Wilson has lost his top receiving threat in Doug Baldwin, but there is hope that Tyler Lockett and can step into that role, with rookie DK Metcalf acting as a deep play threat.
There is really no telling what will happen with the running backs. Chris Carson is the best running back on the roster and showed it when healthy last year. He had more rushing yards than Christian McCaffrey last season. The offensive line….is a work in progress. The defense always seems to find a way to unearth players who are perfect for their scheme. Their defense is the St. Louis Cardinals of the NFL, and I do mean that in a begrudgingly respectful way.
They start the season with a team that has preemptively rolled over and died in the Bengals, and get the Cardinals in week 4. They end the season with the Cardinals and the 49ers. Beyond those games, though, they have a huge undertaking of teams that are much more difficult than the strength of schedule would indicate. Their schedule has non-divisional games against the Steelers, Ravens, Panthers, Vikings, Eagles, and Falcons. It’s very easy to see why the under/over is lower than some of the perceived-worse teams in the league, but I’m bullish on the Seahawks this year. If they can split wins against the 49ers and Rams, it should set them up to get to 10 wins. Once the playoffs come, never bet against the experienced coach, regardless of his feelings on how jet fuel melts steel beams.
Team: Atlanta Falcons
2018 Record: 7-9
2019 Strength of Schedule: 7th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 32 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 8.5
In case anyone is wondering where my larger bets have gone/are going, it’s right here. I already placed a bet at a lower Super Bowl odds than the Falcons are getting right now. I hated this team last year because their offensive coordinator was Steve Sarkisian, who is a trash pile that keeps failing upward. They were smart enough to replace them with [checks notes] DIRK KOETTER??? Oh come the hell on, how can this be? Dirk Koetter, for those who have smartly blotted out the memory by huffing ether, was the coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the past several years, helming a team that didn’t just fly too close to irrelevance, they crashed into irrelevant mountain, and started eating each other.
I take back everything good I was planning to say about this team, though it’s gonna be thrilling watching Julio Jones get murdered running three yard crossing patterns. Jesus. This is a coach who has gone into more than one season thinking “Hey you know who should be the starting running back of my team? Peyton Barber!” Peyton Barber isn’t the starting running back in electric football, let alone the actual game. I was researching another project today (Facebook argument) and found that Jameis Winston is the 12th quarterback being taken in standard fantasy football leagues. He’s getting taken ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers because he is getting the “Dirk Koetter is gone so things should be better now” bump.
I don’t even know with this team. Bet at your own risk.
Team: Baltimore Ravens
2018 Record: 10-6
2019 Strength of Schedule: 19th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 32 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 8.5
It’s been well noted by football pundits that Lamar Jackson might not be able to throw a forward pass. I stand behind this. The Ravens are probably going to be thoroughly uninteresting to watch this season as they try to break all sorts of rushing attempts records. I’m not even sure I can name a wide receiver on this team. Is Breshad Perriman still playing for them? With that being said, they do have the weapons to unleash a 1920’s college style offense on the NFL that should actually work for a while until defensive coordinators wise up to it. Jackson brings enough speed on the outside to keep people from burying the box, while Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards provide enough bruising force up the middle to keep moving the chains. I’m not sure how long this works, but the over/under placed on this team currently leads me to believe that Vegas thinks it could work. They have two gimmes against the Bengals: You can almost guarantee the Browns will blow one game to the Ravens. That puts then at 6-7 in every other game to hit the over. Their first two games are against the Dolphins and Cardinals, the two worst teams in the league. That means they only have to go 4-7 the rest of the schedule. I like the over a lot. Just not the Super Bowl.
Team: San Francisco 49ers
2018 Record: 4-12
2019 Strength of Schedule: 11th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 36 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 8
I don’t understand this line. Jimmy Garoppolo is back, but Carson Wentz proved last season that it’s not that easy to quickly return from an ACL tear at the quarterback position. There is a story that goes back to Carson Palmer’s disastrous time with the Raiders years ago, before he resurrected his career with the Arizona Cardinals. After he moved on to another team, it was asked of Palmers offensive coordinator in Oakland what went wrong. The OC said that Palmer struggled to gain confidence in his knee during his first year back. He wasn’t comfortable planting his foot. He wasn’t confident stepping up in the pocket. He wasn’t comfortable scrambling to extend a play. It took a long time for him to start feeling better about what he was doing in game.
We saw a similar thing last year with Wentz and I think we might see something similar in Garoppolo. Being tentative in the pocket is expected, and that could hurt the offense initially. Beyond that, their wide receiving situation is all over the place. Tevin Coleman might end up being their feature back after being brought in to be a complimentary piece. They continue to struggle to draft on defense. I’m not really on the Nick Bosa bandwagon.
On top of that, the 49ers do have a difficult schedule no matter how you cut it. They are lacking in enough gimme games for me to be confident in this team getting to .500. I’m gonna take the under on this one and I’m confident enough to parlay it with other options.
Team: Tennessee Titans
2018 Record: 9-7
2019 Strength of Schedule: 9th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 40 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 8
This is, in my opinion, the least exciting team in football. I pretty genuinely hate writing about this team. This team exists so the Jaguars have someone to play on Thursday Night Football twice a year. Derrick Henry is gonna have a couple huge games for your fantasy team. Is Delanie Walker still on the team? He’ll get a few touchdowns. Marcus Mariota isn’t very good. In a quarterback driven league, he doesn’t really do anything interesting enough that even makes the team worth watching. Josh Allen in Buffalo isn’t very good, but at least he runs around a bunch and throws the ball 60 yards downfield with confidence.
The Titans are vanilla ice cream. They are the color beige in football form. I’m not even wasting more space on them. No Super Bowl. I’m taking the under. Let’s move on.
Team: Carolina Panthers
2018 Record: 7-9
2019 Strength of Schedule: 16th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 50 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 8
Now this is a team with some stuff to talk about! Christian McCaffrey is going to be shredded into hamster bedding before his tenure with the Panthers is over, but he’s fun to watch now! When Cam Newton can find him in the open field, he is like a laser-guided missile to the first down marker. AAAANNNNND that’s about where I stop complimenting this team. Cam Newton hurt his ankle playing in a meaningless preseason game. Leave it to Ron Rivera to look at the changing tides, see teams not playing anyone of value, then throw his former MVP out there to get hurt. I think the most fun odds to play on this team is to bet on if Ron Rivera is the first coach fired this season. It is in play.
Luke Kuechly should retire for his literal sanity. His brain is going to be pudding because nobody has the guts to tell him to quit.
I do love the defensive line, though. Gerald McCoy, Kawann Short, and Dontari Poe is a big stacked line that should make life easy on the non-perpetually concussed linebackers. The defense will be better all around than we have seen out of the Panthers in a few seasons. All of what I just said is thrown out the window by the fact that Cam Newton or whoever replaced Cam Newton when he gets injured again, will have nobody not named Christian to throw to.
It’s time for my yearly Carolina Panthers wide receiver rant: How does this team do this, year in and year out? They are allergic to anything that resembles a top wide out. Every year, they jam a different garbage wide receiver into our faces(DJ Moore this year) and we are all supposed to just lie and say “yea, this is the year, this is the guy.” Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, Corey Brown, Curtis Samuel. Every freaking year. Nobody will ever know how good of a quarterback Cam Newton could have been because he plays for a team that chooses wide receivers in the same way people chose cheese during the war effort.
Needless to say, I’m staying away from this team in any betting form, and I’m going to be a happier person for it.
Team: Indianapolis Colts
2018 Record: 10-6
2019 Strength of Schedule: 7th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 60 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 7.5
Ok, so it’s a long shot, but hear me out. I’ve been all over the place on this, and I’m not even sure what I’m thinking right now, because I hate their under/over at 7.5 but I kind of love their Super Bowl odds at 60 to 1. This entire team is a bunch of what-ifs? What if Jacoby Brissett, after experiencing this offense all of last season, is good enough to step in and run it competently? What if Marlon Mack is good enough to justify his fantasy football draft position? What if the offensive line stays healthy all year? What if the defense keeps getting better over their growth performance last year?
Yea, that’s a lot of what-ifs, but are they so far-fetched that 60-to-1 doesn’t feel like a good enough value? I’d actually feel more confident picking the Colts to win the Super Bowl than the 49ers, and San Fran has way better odds to win the Super Bowl. This might be one of the better value bets we will see in the NFL this season. I’m actually willing to put money on the Super Bowl line. I might live by it, and I’ll probably die by it, but there is too much talent on this team for them to be getting worse Super Bowl odds than dumpy teams like the Titans and Jaguars.
Team: New York Jets
2018 Record: 4-12
2019 Strength of Schedule: 27th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 60 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 7.5
This is another team that I have a lot of questions about, but am definitely intrigued by the odds. Someone has to win games in the east outside of the Patriots. The Dolphins are actively trying to tank and the Buffalo Bill are just being the Buffalo Bills. The Jets should be able to go 3-3 in their division, and then would have to go 5-5 the rest of the way. Their out-of-conference schedule has gifted them the Bengals, Giants, Jaguars, and Raiders. That’s 3-1 there, getting them to 6-4. If they can go 2-4 over the rest of their non-conference schedule, which isn’t impossible, considering the Cowboys and Redskins are on the docket.
It’s all going to come down to one thing that I keep pounding the pavement on over and over: Will they be held back by the fact that they have a bad coach? Sam Darnold looks like he could be a franchise quarterback. They have one of the best running backs in the NFL (with fresh legs!) in Le’Veon Bell. But, my God, people: I’ve lived through Adam Gase and Dowell Loggains era in Chicago. It was exciting for 2 months, and only because Josh McCown came in and won the bloated, kielbasa-stuffed hearts of the meatballest Bears fans. Then things went bad and somehow, some way, Gase got another job. He then went and did NOTHING in Miami, and got an even better job! That is absolutely asinine.
I’m going with the over and maybe a small bet on the Super Bowl, but that is not going to be a well coached team.
Team: Denver Broncos
2018 Record: 6-10
2019 Strength of Schedule: 2nd Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 70 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 7
This defense is going to be good under new head coach Vic Fangio. The offense, on the other hand? This is Joe Flacco’s last chance to prove he can be a passable quarterback, after spending most of last season sulking on the sidelines in Baltimore after the Ravens successfully ruined the concept of offense. There has been talk of a running back by committee this season which is incredibly silly because Phillip Lindsey was great last year and Royce Freeman a typhoon of mediocrity.
In a division where they are basically giving away four wins right off the top end to the Chiefs and Chargers, their schedule doesn’t get much easier. This really feels like a team that is going to keep every game competitive this season, but lose by around 8-10 points in the end.
I’m gonna take the under and stay away from the Super Bowl bet.
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2018 Record: 5-11
2019 Strength of Schedule: 12th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 70 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 6.5
There is a lot of momentum in this “Jameis Winston is finally going to be good” storyline that pops up around this time every year. As noted above, Winston is being drafted ahead of Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers in standard fantasy leagues. I’m not buying it. I’ve been down this road before. Jameis Winston is a bad quarterback, and all-around douchehead of a human being. Elsewhere, Ronald Jones, who was an absolutely unmitigated disaster last year is still around, and being praised for his growth in the offseason, while he sits behind the ghost of Mike Alstott on the depth chart.
Defensively, this team is just, kind of, whatever. They will live and die by the quarterback play of Jameis Winston, and I’m not going go ahead and fast forward to around week 10, when Blaine Gabbert is playing, knowing this new coaching experiment failed, too.
Fading everything, but feel good about the under.
Team: Buffalo Bills
2018 Record: 6-10
2019 Strength of Schedule: 24th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 80 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 7
If you are going to be bad, you damn well better be interesting about it. And if nothing else, the Bills are interesting. Josh Allen might not be that good, but i’ll be damned if I don’t have a soft spot for a quarterback who is completely unafraid to throw a ball halfway across the field into triple coverage, and giving you that wonderfully rare and amusing 100 yard rushing game. The defense might actually be decent this year. I’m a believer in Robert Foster.
But, sweet Jesus, this is the most bleak group of running backs I’ve ever seen. This is basically a group of people you look at and say “Hey, good for him for keeping the dream alive” when you see them on an XFL tryout list. Lesean McCoy exists solely to weed out who the shitty fantasy football player in your league is. Frank Gore keeps getting lauded for the fact that he is still playing at 39, and not being goaded about the fact that he is occupying a roster spot on an NFL team exclusively because he is a good story because he aged gracefully. Senorise Perry is on the roster, too, because I suppose he had to be somewhere.
In the end, there just isn’t enough talent here for me to think that this team really has a chance to compete, but if you aren’t gonna compete, you might as well be fun with it. I’m passing on both bets but i’ll check this team out from time to time.
Team: New York Giants
2018 Record: 5-11
2019 Strength of Schedule: 27th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 80 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 6
Okay, so, here we are. This is pretty much where the flotsam meets the jetsam. If you really dream and dream and dream, then you could maybe sorta see a path for the Giants to pull another Super Bowl out of their rears. They don’t play in a good division. Saquon Barkley is one of the best players in football. They lost eight games last year by 7 points or less. Aaaaannnnndddd…..that’s about it. It’s hard to get excited about a team that actively runs Eli Manning out every week even though he was pretty much done as an effective quarterback years ago. They got rid of Odell Beckham for Golden Tate, who promptly got suspended for 4 games for trying to do some drug-aided baby-making.
But still, I can’t quite get over their schedule. They get the Cardinals, they get the Buccaneers, they get two against the Redskins. They get two against the Cowboys. They get two against the Eagles. The Bills are on the schedule. The Lions and Dolphins are on the schedule. I’m actually talking myself into this team as a Super Bowl contender as I sit here writing about them. 80 to 1 odds, coupled with an under/over of 6. If you can parlay the over with a Super Bowl win, you could very easily turn 50 dollars into 7000. Hmm….
Team: Detroit Lions
2018 Record: 6-10
2019 Strength of Schedule: 19th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 80 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 6.5
Sports Illustrated has this team pegged to finish ahead of the Bears and finish above .500 this season. There is a reason that nobody reads that stupid publication anymore. The Lions are coached by quite possibly the worst branch of the Bill Belichick coaching tree, which is really saying something, considering that Eric Mangini is on that coaching tree. Matt Patricia couldn’t coach his way through a Golden Corral buffet line, let alone be the guy to find the right scheme for Matthew “The Apple Cheeked Goon” Stafford. There is some talent on this team: Kerryon Johnson looked good last year. Kenny Golladay is a threat to take the top off the offense. Marvin Jones is dependable. They spent a first round pick on tight end TJ Hockenson. But their offensive line isn’t good. Their defensive line isn’t good. Their linebackers aren’t good. Their secondary isn’t good.
It’s easy this time of year for analysts to take a contrarian view just so they have content to write. I call it like I see it, and I see a team that is gonna hover around 6 wins this season. I’ll pass on all of it.
Team: Oakland Raiders
2018 Record: 4-12
2019 Strength of Schedule: Toughest Schedule in NFL
Super Bowl Odds: 100 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 6
There is a well known phenomenon called the “Hard Knocks Bump.” By taking thousands of hours of footage and widdling it down to a few hours, you can make anything seem interesting. Oh look, the players are interacting with Guy Fieri. Oh man, I can’t believe Mike Glennon isn’t a starter, he looks so good! Nathan Peterman, hey there fella! It gives people a false sense of quality on a team. It happens every year. This year is no different. People are starting to talk up the possibility that this might be a brand new team under Jon Gruden. They might be ready to make the leap. Look at all the young guys they have! Antonio Brown and his feet are ready to go!
The truth is, this team is gonna win about 5 or 6 games this year. Jon Gruden isn’t that good of a coach, and the verbal fellating he is doing to Nathan Peterman is proof of that. Jon Gruden doesn’t want to win Super Bowls. He doesn’t want to contend. He wants to take a historically bad reclamation project like Peterman and make him passable because that will somehow prove him as the quarterback whisperer. Meanwhile, this is the guy who forced a trade of Khalil Mack, then openly complained later in the year that his team wasn’t generating enough sacks.
Like I said in the beginning. Never bet on the Raiders. Never bet against the Patriots.
Team: Washington Redskins
2018 Record: 7-9
2019 Strength of Schedule: Easiest Schedule in NFL
Super Bowl Odds: 100 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 6
The only thing worth saying about this team is that I hope Dan Snyder gets run over and fed to angry, horny woodchucks. This man deserves nothing better. Fuck him, and fuck this team.
Team: Arizona Cardinals
2018 Record: 3-13
2019 Strength of Schedule: 12th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 110 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 5
Oh man, there is some serious bust potential in Kyler Murray. Like, showing-up-to-2023-Spring-Training with the Athletics bust potential. I know it’s early, but this is not a good team. His first couple years of development are going to be formed by a guy who couldn’t hold a coaching job at Texas Tech, but is now running an NFL team. This team is going to suck to a level that would be hilarious… if I wasn’t so convinced that the Dolphins were gonna be much worse.
Remember how I listed all the what-ifs on what it would take for the Colts to make the Super Bowl? There are the same number of what-ifs that it would take to get this team to 6 wins, and honestly, i’d rather bet on the Colts.
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
2018 Record: 6-10
2019 Strength of Schedule: 27th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 150 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 6
Shut it down. Just. Shut. It. Down. Nobody cares about the Bengals except people who live in Cincinnati. And the fact is, they like cinnamon chili on their spaghetti, so we might as well just burn the entire city to the ground and give the team to a more deserving town, like Des Moines or something. Literally any other city. Cincinnati has to wake up everyday being thankful that the city of Cleveland exists so that they get to skate below the radar of shitty cities. The entire city of Ohio can jump up its own ass.
As for the team, they decided to play on some impromptu field to appease the hundredth anniversary of the NFL, and naturally AJ Green, their best player went down with a leg injury that will have him out through the first month of the NFL season. Andy Dalton is still here, aiming for just below the middle of mediocrity. Vontaze Burfict is gone, now playing with the Raiders (the only team that more perfectly fits his chud personality than Cincy). People seem to think Tyler Boyd will be good this year. That won’t happen. Whoever picks Boyd in your fantasy league is going to finish in 7th place and then spend the entire offseason saying they would have won the entire league if they had gotten into the playoffs.
Bet this team at your own peril.
Team: Miami Dolphins
2018 Record: 7-9
2019 Strength of Schedule: 18th Toughest Schedule
Super Bowl Odds: 170 to 1
2019 Wins Under/Over: 4.5
Year one of a rebuild is always the toughest. I’m not even sure if the Dolphins seriously think this is a rebuild year, though. This seems like a team that is gonna go out and show grit and whatnot, and win their first game, to the shock of absolutely everyone. They will claim nobody believes in them and that as long as they stick together, nobody will beat them. They will then proceed to get the doors blown off them by at least 40 points in each of the next two games and everyone will just point and laugh.
There isn’t a top player at any position on this team, with the possible exception of Laramy Tunsil (who just got traded). If anyone was gonna just shove Kliff Kingsbury in and let him see if he could make his air raid offense work, why not go to a desolate wasteland like Miami, instead of ruin the number one pick in Arizona? Either way, this team will be bad this year. If I don’t have to watch a single game this year, it would make me so so happy. This team is so bad that i’m legitimately shocked they aren’t playing on Thursday Night Football this year.
Bet the under. Or don’t. I’d recommend not even thinking about this team and retaining your mental health.
For more articles by Brandon Andreasen, check out:
Exclusive Interview: A Few Words with Sports Author Jeff Pearlman
30 Team Parlay Week 2 NFL Betting Advice: Mistakes Were Made (2018)
30 Team Parlay: Over/Under NFL Gambling Advice for Week 1 (2018)
For more analysis with a dose of absurdity, follow us on Twitter
(Photo Credit: https://live.staticflickr.com/5003/5351586600_f691095aa8_b.jpg under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en)
2 Comments on “30 Team Parlay: 2019 NFL Super Bowl and Win Total Gambling Tips”