(Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Patrick_Mahomes_II.JPG under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en)
As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and points per game leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best quarterback value lies.
Patrick Mahomes ADP and AAV
Standard: 1st among QBs, 26th overall
PPR: 1st among QBs, 25th overall
Patrick Mahomes Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $25
|Rank||Total Points||PPG Rank||PPG|
Overview: Mahomes had an all-time top 5 fantasy season, last year. With most of the offense pieces back in play, he is poised to do great things in 2019, however speculation as to how much his 50 TD total will regress makes his evaluation wildly varied.
Strategy: Our Patrick Mahomes Auction Value ($200 Budget): $17
Cool your jets on QBs until at least the 4th round, preferably later. Don’t let the extremely inflated values posted across the Internet sway your no-doubt rock solid judgment. They don’t know… case in point… FantasyPros.com, a great website that aggregates a lot of the pundits rankings has Mahomes 26th in standard yet 25th in PPR. How!? Imagine you’re looking at a sheet of fantasy stat projections. How can increasing the total points for RB and WR but not QB result in the QB getting ranked higher? It makes no sense, and I am thankful to FantasyPros for showing how wildly inaccurate many “experts” can be with that simple stat. Just wait. I like Dave Richard’s strategy of not drafting a QB until you feel like you are getting an absolute steal. Patrick Mahomes is good in the late 4th or the early $teens, not a moment sooner even if you could guarantee him a top 3 finish in 2019.
Best Case Scenario: The train keeps on rollin’ and Mahomes finishes as the top QB.
Worst Case Scenario: His insane TD totals cool off about 25% and you still have yourself a top 5 QB.