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As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and points per game leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best running back value lies.
Devonta Freeman ADP and AAV
Standard: 15th among RBs, 29th overall
PPR: 15th among TEs, 33rd overall
Devonta Freeman Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $31
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | N/A | 9.1 | N/A | 4.6 |
| 2017 | 13th | 164.2 | 11th | 11.7 |
| 2016 | 6th | 230.1 | 7th | 14.4 |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | N/A | 11.6 | N/A | 5.8 |
| 2017 | 13th | 200.2 | 14th | 14.3 |
| 2016 | 6th | 284.1 | 7th | 17.8 |
FANTASY USAGE
| Carries | Carries Per Game | Targets | Targets Per Game | |
| 2018 | 14 | 7.0 | 7 | 3.5 |
| 2017 | 196 | 14.0 | 47 | 4.3 |
| 2016 | 227 | 14.2 | 65 | 4.0 |
Overview: Freeman followed up three straight strong seasons with a 2018 cut dramatically short due to a bone bruise and sports hernia surgery. With Tevin Coleman out of the building, Freeman could get an uptick in touches if he can stay healthy.
Strategy: Our Devonta Freeman Auction Value ($200 Budget): $34
Full disclosure, Football Absurdity co-owner Jeff Krisko is high on Freeman, whereas I am kind of in the middle. It comes down to whether you like to gamble on upside in the third round or get a safe floor. Freeman definitely has a huge upside, Atlanta’s offense should be potent and the only one in the backfield who could steal carries is the ho-hum Ito Smith. If that speaks to you, grab Freeman.
However, with my third round RB, I like a nice floor. Give me a boring guy who checks in with 10 points per game and never goes down, and let my two first round picks win the games for me. So I can’t use my third round pick on Freeman, who has picked up 7 injuries in the past two seasons. In addition to the hernia surgery, he’s had a bruised foot, a bruised knee, two sprained knees, and two concussions. I just can’t spend a third round pick or almost 20% of my auction budget on this sixth-year back. Don’t get me wrong, if he falls into the 4th round or around 15 % of my budget, I’ll snap him up in a heartbeat.
Best Case Scenario: Freeman doesn’t get injured and has his best season, yet, finishing as a top end RB1
Worst Case Scenario: Freeman gets dinged up throughout the season, but never misses time, ending up as a RB3 who owners mistakenly start week after week.
