2019 Fantasy Football Ezekiel Elliott Player Profile

As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts.  When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper.  Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players.  We are only focusing on the top-rated running backs in standard scoring and points per game leagues.  If you like to handcuff your running backs and also like them in handcuffs,  then this Ezekiel Elliott player profile is for you.

With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years.  I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore.  I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span.  We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best running back value lies.

Ezekiel Elliott

Current ADP: As of 6/10/2019

Standard: Number 2 among running backs.  Number 2 overall.

PPR: Number 2 among running backs.  Number 2 overall.

 

Stats:

FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD

Rank Total Points PPG Rank PPG
2018 5 252.2 8 16.8
2017 10 163.1 2 18.1
2016 2 293.4 3 19.6

FANTASY SCORING — PPR

Rank Total Points PPG Rank PPG
2018 5 329.2 6 21.9
2017 12 203.2 3 20.3
2016 2 325.4 3 21.7

FANTASY USAGE

Carries Carries Per Game Targets Targets Per Game
2018 304 20.3 95 6.3
2017 242 24.2 38 3.8
2016 322 21.5 39 2.6

 

Overview: After a disappointing 2017 season, Ezekiel Elliott came back in 2018 to lead the NFL in rushing for the second time in three years.  And just like after his inaugural season as the NFL rushing champion, Zeke decided to try getting arrested again. While this incident is being dismissed by the Cowboys, the NFL is draconian when it comes to its image.  Getting arrested at music festivals in Las Vegas is exactly the type of thing the NFL would suspend someone for, whether they are at fault or not.

If Ezekiel Elliott avoids being suspended, I can’t think of a better bet to be the number one scorer in fantasy football.  As crazy as it sounds, Zeke might have had a down year in 2018.  Even though he led the league in rushing, he was only 20th in rushing touchdowns.  For his usage, he should have scored a lot more.  Numbers two through eleven on the rushing leader list all had more touchdowns than him.  Moreover, in 2018 Ezekiel Elliot had more targets in the passing game than his previous two seasons combined.

The crux of all this is that we don’t really know yet if we can trust him to be on the field.  Zeke has missed 17% of his NFL games and it has nothing to do with his health.  How the NFL handles the Vegas situation will go a long way in setting his value.

Strategy: The strategy here is simple.  If he is suspended, don’t draft him in the first.  If he isn’t, all aboard.  I suspect this profile will be updated as we get closer to fantasy drafts and we have a more definitive answer as to Ezekiel Elliott’s availability.

Best Case Scenario:  The best case scenario is that the NFL finally realizes that it isn’t fooling anyone with its dumb player personal conduct policies and just lets Zeke have the chance to lead the NFL in rushing.

Worst Case Scenario:  What will actually happen is that every other year, Ezekiel Elliott will lead the NFL in rushing and on the opposite years, end up suspended and disappointing his fantasy owners.  Unfortunately for you, if you draft him this year, you drafted him in the wrong year.