Start or Sit Corey Davis
It’s week three of the NFL season, and as crazy as it seems, we will already be a major chunk of the way through the 2018 fantasy football regular season when the Steelers and Buccaneers wind down on Monday Night Football. So far, we’ve had some spectacular ups-and-downs in terms of out-of-nowhere players suddenly playing amazing, and amazing players suddenly playing as though they’ve never seen a football field before. We now have two samples of data for the NFL season, and it’s a mess to try to make heads or tails of this so early in the year. However, we at Football Absurdity are here to help you think through some of your tough weekly lineup decisions. For example, should you start or sit Corey Davis as the Tennessee Titans take on their AFC South rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars?
Things aren’t going as planned for Corey Davis owners so far this year, just like they didn’t go too great for them last season. This year, however, he doesn’t have the injury excuse to fall back on. He does, however, have the Blaine Gabbert excuse. Unfortunately, Davis has just 58.5 yards per game in the first two games and no scores. These numbers get even worse when you look under the hood. He has a high market share of air yards (44%), but those air yards are useless when Blaine freaking Gabbert throwing him the ball. Gabbert’s so bad for Davis that the Titans hoped a mostly numb Marcus Mariota would be a better option (banking on their mostly numb fan base not noticing). One of every three Titan targets goes his way, but they’re Blaine Gabbert targets, which means he’s converted only 52% of those targets into catches, and he boasts only 179 air yards with an aDOT below possession guys like Michael Crabtree, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, and Quincy Enunwa. That’s not great for a guy that’s supposed to be a game-breaking talent. Tons of errant targets that barely travel anywhere.
This week, Davis gets one of the worst possible matchups, even if Marcus Mariota returns from having no feeling in his throwing hand. The Titans travel to Jacksonville, where Corey Davis will get the Jalen Ramsey treatment and the rest of the offense gets the… well, the Jacksonville Jaguars treatment. Ramsay and his personal rival Odell Beckham, Jr. squared off in week one. Beckham got 111 yards out of the deal (that’s good news for Davis), but that topped the top three WR yard-getters on the Pats in week two (that’s bad news for Davis). Two games is a small sample size, so let’s see what the Jags did last yea—oh ok only Antonio Brown topped 90 yards last year. Against these Titans in 2017, the Jaguars allowed just 146 receiving yards to wide receivers… in two games. Total! The pieces are falling into place as to whether to start or sit Corey Davis.
Corey Davis has not been capable of converting his targets this season into production, and there’s a lot to not like when you dive deeply into the numbers. Even worse, he gets the stifling Jacksonville Jaguars defense and EVEN WORSE THAN THAT, he likely gets the stifling Blaine Gabbert offense. Corey Davis is a great talent, but if you’re wondering if you should start or sit Corey Davis this week? Sit him. Pass. And hope you pass better than Blaine freakin’ Gabbert.