Start or Sit Chris Carson
In this article we answer the question: should you start or sit Chris Carson in week two as the Chicago Bears host the Seattle Seahawks?
The first week of the NFL fantasy football season is in the books, and at this point, you’re either on pace to go undefeated, or more likely, you’re an endless pit of death and despair, wondering why you wasted your time even thinking about fantasy football. After all, Joan from Accounting auto-drafted Tyreek Hill, Alvin Kamara, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Cook and smashed the thoroughly-researched players you took after countless hours of research during a long offseason. A wasted summer spent on nightly mock drafts instead of tending to your relationships with your loved ones. Whether you won or lost, it’s time to move on from week one and set your lineups for week two. Here at Football Absurdity, we try to help you out with your weekly lineup questions.
If you look at the results of their week one game against the Denver Broncos, the Seattle Seahawks had one clear back run away with the job (Carson). However, if you drill down into the opportunities provided to both Carson and presumptive backup Rashaad Penny, a clear pattern emerges. Carson had 25 snaps to Penny’s… 25 snaps. The lead back, Carson, had seven carries; the clear backup, Penny had… seven carries. While they matched in snaps and carries, Carson had five targets and Penny had… you guessed it, five targets. Their usage split almost exactly down the middle last week. While Carson outgained Penny, 73 yards to 43, they were provided equal opportunities. That will likely repeat this week, as the Seahawks need to get Penny worked into the game flow. That means another split usage backfield, likely a ceiling of fifteen touches a piece. Carson cannot keep up his torrid seven yards per carry pace, meaning a fall back down to earth for efficiency, and continued suppressed volume. That goes a long way toward answering whether you should start or sit Chris Carson.
The suppressed volume means Bad News Bears… I mean, technically, it means good news for the Bears, but I wanted to make that joke. The Bears dominated the Packers rushing game last week. I feel safe not going back to last year when evaluating this defense, considering the Bears might have added the best defensive player in the NFL on top of the best LB in the draft. This ain’t your daddy’s Bears defense. Ok, it is. Look, you know what I mean by that, don’t bring up the ‘85 Bears. Anyway, they stomped Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery into a fine paste in the running game, holding them to a combined 54 rushing yards on seventeen carries. It was a dang mess, and it took only Aaron Rodgers turning into Willis Reed to salvage the day for the Pack.
While Chris Carson had an encouraging week one, he split his opportunities right down the middle with “backup” Rashaad Penny. Carson was far more efficient, and far too efficient for my tastes. This week will see a continued workload split, which means that Carson will work on reduced volume. His likely efficiency at his touch volume makes the answer to “start or sit Chris Carson this week?” easy. Sit him.
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