2018 Fantasy Football Lamar Miller Player Profile

If you draft your running backs hoping they will finally be good, then this fantasy football Lamar Miller player profile is for you. As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts.  When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper.  Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players.  We are only focusing on the top-rated running backs in standard scoring and points per game leagues.

With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years.  I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore.  I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span.  We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best running back value lies.

Fantasy Football Lamar Miller

Current ADP (As of 9/3/2018):

Standard: Number 21 among running backs.  Number 45 overall.

PPR: Number 21 among running backs.  Number 46 overall.

Stats:

FANTASY FOOTBALL LAMAR MILLER SCORING — STANDARD

FANTASY FOOTBALL LAMAR MILLER SCORING — PPR

FANTASY FOOTBALL LAMAR MILLER USAGE

Overview: Let me tell you about Lamar Miller, my favorite value play at running back this fantasy football season.  Right now, Lamar Miller is the 26th ranked running back in standard leagues and 27th ranked running back in points per receptions leagues.  In contrast, Deshaun Watson’s ADP makes him the 2nd drafted quarterback.  The question is why he is Lamar Miller ranked so low? Last year, he was an RB1 in standard leagues and a mid-level RB2 in PPR leagues.  Moreover, if people really think that Watson is going to break out, why has nobody looked at Miller’s numbers during this stretch and adjusted them accordingly?  Lamar Miller, in the four-game stretch that catapulted Watson’s stock, rushed for 244 yards, had 12 receptions for 130 receiving yards and had 4 touchdowns.  That means Miller was averaging 93.5 all-purpose yards and one touchdown a game.  If Watson continues with his insane streak, that will mean that Miller should score 245 points in standard leagues in 2018.  In comparison, Kareem Hunt scores 248 points in 2017.  Alvin Kamara only scored 229 points.  Obviously, this comparison isn’t fair, as Miller has proven himself to be a flawed back.  However, I think people are letting emotions cloud their judgment in regards to Lamar Miller.  The last couple of years, he has not lived up to his draft stock.  Because of this, it seems people are overcompensating and devaluing his stock a ridiculous amount.  I get it.  You’ve been hurt before.  Despite my argument above, Lamar Miller shouldn’t be drafted in the first round, but he should not be going in the fifth round either! Yet that is where his current ADP has him going.

Strategy: If I didn’t make myself clear earlier, Lamar Miller’s value is way out of whack.  He is one of the best values available right now.  His production and potential in what might be the most explosive offense in football merits, at the very least, a third-round grade.  If he falls to the late-third/early-fourth, I’ll be hard pressed to pass on him.  I’d much rather have him over half of the backs that will be available in the third or fourth round.

Ceiling: When Deshaun Watson turns into Football Jesus, Lamar Miller will bask in the bounty of his passes and end the year as a high-end RB1.

Floor:  What will actually happen is Lamar Miller will turn into Football Judas, betraying you one more time.  You will wonder why you let Lamar Miller talk you into drafting him again with his smooth words and oily machismo.  He told you he’d changed.  That this time, he would outperform his ADP.  He just seemed so sincere this time.  When he looked at you with those big, brown eyes, you should have known he’d let you down again.  Just like he always does.