Over one-third of the NFL season is in the books, and if your team has nobody on bye, is at full strength, and isn’t missing a key player, then bully for you. I am not mad at you at all. For the rest of us, I have three players available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues, with a player at each position available in at least 90% of leagues. Let’s hop in!
QUARTERBACKS
Malik Willis versus Detroit (24% rostered)
Malik Willis is starting to round into shape and has been a pretty good 2QB league quarterback for a few weeks now. He’s posted top-15 finishes in each of the last three weeks, against tougher matchups than the Lions. Willis is starting to run (17 rush attempts in his last three games) and has multiple scores in three straight. The Lions are the matchup to target for quarterbacks and tight ends (more on that later). The Lions allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and give up the eighth-highest yards per carry to quarterbacks.
Drew Lock versus Arizona (6% rostered)
Drew Lock provides a high floor, but he isn’t the most exciting quarterback out there. He played in one game this season, also against Arizona, and finished with three passing touchdowns (though under 250 passing yards). The Cardinals are a fantasy sieve, allowing the highest fantasy points per dropback in the league. This one might be a two-step too, as the Seahawks ruled Darnold out early this week (Wednesday morning local time), and the Seahawks go on bye after week ten, meaning that it’s likely we see Drew Lock against the Raiders, as well.
Joe Milton versus N.Y. Giants (3% rostered)
The Eagles decided the Tanner McKee Era was over and are starting the league’s worst, most exciting quarterback against the New York Football Giants. Milton is a loose cannon, but he has the biggest arm in the world and runs a lot. He’s probably not a good real-life quarterback, but he’s a helluva fantasy QB. He has played 105 snaps in his career, and has 15 carries (for 66 yards and a score). His career average depth of target is over 10 yards, and the Giants are allowing the tenth-highest QB rating and fantasy points per pass attempt on those passes over the last four weeks. This is getting really weird with it, but it should work.
RUNNING BACKS
Seth McGowan versus Dallas (32% rostered)
This might be in a post-Jonathan Taylor world, which means that McGowan is the next man up. DJ Giddens led the team in rushing yards last week, but he did all his work in garbage time, so I feel confident that McGowan will get a crack at it in this one. This is a pure matchup-based play, as the Cowboys are the league’s worst run defense over the last month, as they allow 5.52 yards per carry to running backs in that span.
Dylan Sampson at New Orleans (19% rostered)
Dylan Sampson and Quinshon Judkins both returned from injury two weeks ago, and Sampson promptly took over the passing downs role. He has eleven targets, nine catches, and 94 yards over the last two games, and Judkins has three targets, three catches, and 32 yards. The Saints are the best matchup in the league for running backs, and Sampson should cobble together a double-digit fantasy day, even without scoring a touchdown.
Deep Dive: Justice Hill versus Jacksonville (5% rostered) TNF SPECIAL
The Ravens are in trouble, trading for Jacoby Brissett (too late to play this week), and are turning to Joe Fagnano for one game on Thursday Night Football against the (best in the AFC?) Jacksonville Jaguars. This means they are about to get the doors blown off them on Thursday Night Football, meaning less rushing and more passing. That means more Justice Hill, and less Derrick Henry. Last week, Hill had 8 targets with Fagnano as the pass-down back, and I expect about five or six targets this week. This play is in the same mold as Dylan Sampson, and given the matchup, I prefer Sampson.
WIDE RECEIVERS
“Pop” Douglas versus Green Bay (39% rostered)
AJ Brown missed last week, and Hunter Henry left the game with an injury. That means both are likely to be on the wrong side of questionable when injury reports come out this week. In the last three games without AJ Brown, Douglas is averaging three catches for 76 yards and 1.3 touchdowns (16.2 PPR points) per game. The Packers are not a tough matchup of late, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and have given up six double-digit PPR days in their last three games.
Ryan Flournoy at Indianapolis (36% rostered)
Flournoy quietly has four straight double-digit PPR games as the Cowboys throw the ball all over the field. In those games, he has 21 targets for a 17/241/1 line. The one touchdown is a bit discouraging, but he’s averaging four catches for 60 yards as of late, so in PPR, that touchdown would just be a nice bonus. The Colts are technically a bad matchup, but they have no good players left, and are circling the drain. They are a perfect team to attack for your sleeper players.
Deep Dive: Malachi Fields at Philadelphia (5% rostered)
Speaking of circling the drain, Malachi Fields gets the Philadelphia Eagles. Fields has 13 targets in his last two games, both with J.J. McCarthy for at least part of them. In his first full game with McCarthy, he finished with five catches for 83 yards, and he is emerging as JJM’s #2 target (sorry, Isaiah Likely managers). The Eagles allow the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and have allowed six double-digit PPR games in the last two weeks, as they took on the Cowboys and Commanders.
TIGHT ENDS
Tyler Higbee at Washington (22% rostered)
While Detroit allows the most fantasy points per game to tight ends, the Commanders allow the most fantasy points per target to the position (2.54 PPR points per target). Higbee’s been on a skid since I last suggested him a few weeks ago, but the Rams will be forced to turn to him this week, with no Colby Parkinson, no Terrance Ferguson, and no Davante Adams. That leaves HCH and Puka Nacua as the two viable passing game options available in Los Angeles (and I say Los Angeles because I am including the Chargers).
AJ Barner versus Arizona (11% rostered)
Barner is quietly carving out a consistent role in Seattle, and the Seahawks will need him on Sunday against the Cardinals, as they will be without Sam Darnold and with a subpar running game. Barner has at least five targets in three of the last four games, and that is a great benchmark for the Cardinals. Six of the seven tight ends to get to five targets finished with double-digit PPR points, and the only one who didn’t was Brevyn Spann-Ford last week. They allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position, and the sixth-most fantasy points per target.
Deep Dive: Greg Dulcich versus Detroit (7% rostered)
This one is the free-space sleeper this week; I’m just glad I got to snag him at 7% rostership. The Lions allow the most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and by a wide margin. Their 27.9 PPR points per game to the position are more fantasy points to TE than any other team allows to quarterbacks, to give you an idea of how much of a sieve they are. Through eight weeks, they have given up at least 13 PPR points to nine tight ends. Dulcich has five or more targets in three straight, and four out of the last five games, so he is the one getting the opportunities to produce, and he should return a double-digit PPR game on Sunday.
