Drunk. That’s the only word that you can use to explain Sunday’s NFL action. The whole league was drunk. There were at least four “tipped in the open field and plucked by a defender” interceptions, and we saw Lamar Jackson leave after one play, the Buccaneers not complete a pass, but catching four interceptions (and win!), the Titans almost beat the Bengals, the Cardinals actually beat the Cowboys, and the Jets-Raiders somehow turn into an absolute shootout!
Is Tony Pollard Must-Start?
Tony Pollard finished week eight with 24 touches for 137 yards and two scores. It is his second-straight game with over 20 touches, over 130 yards, and multiple scores. Last week, he finished as RB1, and he is set to finish inside the top-ten at the position yet again this week. Pollard’s been a touch machine all season long, as this is the fourth game in his last six with at least nineteen touches, and his seventh-straight game with at least 14 touches. The Titans are not a good team, and they are down a lot, but they played two close games in the last two weeks thanks to Pollard’s production. They’ve shunted the backups off to the side (no carries for any running back other than Pollard today).
But Pollard has a huge problem on his hands: he will only be a good start in one of the next four weeks. In week nine, Pollard has a bye, so obviously, you can’t start him there. Then, he has the Jaguars in week ten. The Jaguars, who are freshly off holding Jonathan Taylor to 2.9 yards per carry and who allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game, and the lowest yards per carry to running backs by nearly half a yard. Pollard then gets a cupcake matchup with the Dallas Cowboys in week eleven, but guess who is back on the docket in week twelve? Those pesky Jacksonville Jaguars. So, Tony Pollard is running hot, but he is not a must-start in three out of the next four weeks (including his bye).
The good news? He has four matchups against teams ranked in the top five in fantasy points allowed to running backs in the last six weeks of the season. So, things are going to be tough for the next month, but open up nicely to end the season.
Are the Ravens in Trouble?
The Ravens, as I write this, are about 100 hours away from playing on Thursday Night Football, and they announced that Lamar Jackson was getting IR-inducing thumb surgery during the game. They ended up getting bounced from the contest thanks to not only Lamar Jackson going down with an injury, but also backup Snoop Huntley (with turf toe, undergoing an MRI on Monday). The Ravens are going to be down bad going into Thursday Night Football, but how bad, with Joe Fagnano?
Well, pretty much as bad as humanly possible. The Bills are one of the easier defenses to throw against, allowing the seventh-highest quarterback rating, fifth-highest adjusted net yards per pass attempt, and fourth-highest passing success rate. They’re a decent run defense up front, allowing the 20th-lowest success rate on rushes, but if a back can get past the defenders, they allow the eighth-highest explosive run rate. That all is to say: the Ravens were set up pretty nicely to do something this week. Unfortunately, with Fagnano, they did nothing. They ran 39 plays (excluding kneeling at the end of the first half) with him under center, gained 147 total yards, and punted five times (going three-and-out three times, and running six or fewer plays on seven-of-eight drives).
The Jags, who they play on Thursday Night Football, as previously mentioned, are a stifling run defense. They are a bit porous passing, though overall they are one of the better EPA/DB defenses out there. However, we saw Joe Fagnano completely incapable of taking advantage of that on Sunday. Combine that with the run defense of the Jaguars, and I can’t find myself feeling good about starting anyone on the Ravens. You’ll be hard-pressed to find three receivers better than Zay Flowers on your roster, even with Fagnano, so you’ll probably have to run him back out there. With the Jags’ already dominant run defense keying in on Derrick Henry, however, I can’t see myself starting him anywhere.
Is Dylan Sampson the New J.D. McKissic?
We’ve been in a drought, and one that you probably didn’t even realize we were in: we haven’t had a good PPR scam back in years. It’s been a true problem, as the league was left between haves and have-nots at running back. However, the Browns have brought us a savior in the form of Dylan Sampson, who takes receiving work away from Quinshon Judkins. In the five games before Sampson and Judkins played together, Judkins averaged four targets per game. He has three in the last two games with Sampson, and Sampson has stepped up to fill in the passing game role for the Browns. Sampson has eleven targets in his two games this season, catching nine of them for 94 yards. Toss in his seven carries for 52 yards, and baby, you’ve got a stew going.
Sampson isn’t the most dynamic back in the league, but the Browns have a plan for running backs to catch passes, and they are moving away from Judkins in that role and toward Sampson. This is clear, and it has left him with back-to-back double-digit fantasy days in his only two weeks of the season. Next week they get the New Orleans Saints, who allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs (and the eighth-most receiving fantasy points per game to the position). This makes Sampson an immediate streamer for anyone desperate for fantasy points, or a flex, in week nine.
