Six weeks of the NFL season are (mostly) in the books, with the 49ers hosting the Commanders as the only game left on the docket. Week six, like every other week, had us questioning not only our sanity, but also our preconceived notions, and that was just the Cardinals versus Rams game! Let’s look at three questions that will have fantasy managers scratching their heads moving forward.
Is it Over for Brian Thomas Jr.?
Brian Thomas Jr. ended the London game against the Houston Texans with a goose egg. He finished with zero yards on two targets, finishing tied with Nate Boerkircher for sixth on the team in targets (that’s rookie blocking tight end Nate Boerkircher, who actually caught his targets). But it gets worse from there. Per Nate Jahnke of PFF, the snaps and routes data for “BTJ” are extremely discouraging. He played just fifteen snaps (21%) and ran thirteen routes (29.5% of the dropbacks). The snaps were fourth among the wide receivers by a mile, with Jakobi Meyers & Parker Washington topping 50 snaps and Josh Cameron logging 15. Travis Hunter ranked behind him in both snaps and targets, but was far more productive (four targets, four catches, 59 yards, and a touchdown).
This is a terrible development for BTJ, as he had been uninvolved in the past, but his snap share never dropped below 33% (with him averaging 48% of snaps in the first five weeks of the season). His route share, accordingly, floated at 55%. To see both drop so precipitously, while Travis Hunter’s usage grew (and his production grew alongside it), indicates major issues with Brian Thomas Jr. This dates back to last season, when a preseason hit gave him a case of the “yips” that still haven’t resolved. He now has eight targets over his last four games, and his nine target week one is far in the rearview mirror. He is currently on pace for 57 targets, 26 catches, and 298 yards. The dream is dead, at least for now. You can move on.
Is Germie Bernard for Real?
Germie Bernard finished week six with eleven catches for 87 yards and a touchdown, for a cool 25.7 PPR points, and his definite breakout game after finishing last week with six catches for 80 yards on eight targets. But is it for real, or is it a blip? First, let’s look at where his opportunity came from: the second-round pick worked his way up the depth chart because of injuries to Roman Wilson and Michael Pittman, which placed both on IR. While Wilson was somewhat productive (3.5 catches for 47 yards per game prior to his injury), Michael Wilson has been a nightmare after the trade (2.3 catches for 29 yards per game).
So, the injuries opened a window for Germie Bernard to walk through. Bernard played the entire game, well over 50% of snaps, and finished with twelve targets. This marks the third time this season that Bernard played over 50% of snaps. In those three games, he has 8, 8, and 12 targets, for 4, 6, and 11 catches, and 35, 80, and 87 yards. That puts his averages in games with over 50% of snaps at 9.3 targets, 7 catches, and 67 yards per game. That’s an incredible three-game sample size for the rookie, and fits in with my pre-draft comparison for him (Robert Woods). This was a huge step up for the rookie, and it makes it even more exciting that DK Metcalf had fifteen targets, which means that Germie didn’t just soak up all the targets because of game planning.
With Wilson and Pittman on the shelf for the foreseeable future, Germie Bernard is a must-add wide receiver, and the top waiver wire add of the week. He has the draft pedigree, the skill set, and the production (when given the opportunity)
Are the Chargers Worth Rostering?
Prior to the slaughter at the hands of the Chiefs, the Chargers ranked last in EPA per play, third-to-last in success rate, plays per drive, and turnover differential. They also were second-worst in points per drive. That is to say, they were an offensive disaster. This week, they didn’t do much to change that, as they averaged -0.29 EPA/play, 4.1 yards per play (which is below-average for yards per carry). They ran just 5.25 plays per drive, and… tied in the turnover differential! Look at that!
But they lost 6-22, and finished with 259 total yards. This marks their worst output thus far, and the fifth time in six weeks that they failed to top two touchdowns, and it marked the fifth time in six weeks that they failed to top 5.5 yards per play. That all is to say: they aren’t scoring points, and they aren’t gaining yards. For those of you keeping track at home, those are the main two ways that fantasy football players score points.
Is there any hope here? They have a bye week next week, so you get a merciful reprieve from the “Los Angeles Chargers.” When they return in week eight, they get the Rams, Texans, and Ravens, who are all much better teams than the Chargers. I don’t expect much to happen in the passing game, so I am moving on from Justin Herbert in one-QB leagues. Ladd McConkey is dealing with a foot injury and suffered a nasty concussion, Quentin Johnston isn’t good enough to be a team’s WR1, and the tight ends can’t figure out who should lead the backfield. McConkey is worth a bench stash, but nobody else in that passing game is worth the effort.
That leaves one man: Omarion Hampton. Kimani Vidal matched Hampton with seven carries this week, and Hampton hasn’t had a firm grip on this backfield in several weeks. He has just two top-24 finishes on the season, and just one top-20 finish. But, so much of that is opportunity-based, and that is a coaching decision statistic. With the Jim Harbaugh-Mike McDaniel brain trust leaving sooner rather than later, you should hang onto Omarion Hampton just in case things right slightly, especially since Hampton leads the team in goal-line carries and is their go-to touchdown scorer.
