The Indianapolis Colts are a team with two huge question marks headed into 2026. First, Daniel Jones tore his Achilles at the end of the 2025 season, which is putting his viability moving forward in doubt, as it likely saps the mobility and power that define his game. Second, we weren’t really sure if Daniel Jones was any good before the injury. They traded away their WR1 to give Alec Pierce $100 million. How will they fare in 2026? Let’s take a look at the 2026 Indianapolis Colts’ fantasy football sleeper, undervalued, and overvalued players!
Sleeper: Josh Downs, Wide Receiver (WR44, Pick 105 OVR)
The Colts moved on from Michael Pittman, which opened up a lot of targets for the Colts’ offense. This likely moves a ton toward Josh Downs, who had 88 targets last season (resulting in 566 catches and four touchdowns). He mostly was outside the usable ranks, but if you take 40 of Michael Pittman’s 111 vacated targets and move them Downs’ way, then he drops into the 120 target range, and jumps up into being a backend WR3, and that’s just off of the volume bump alone. If the fourth-year pro (in a contract year) takes a step forward from a skills perspective, then top-30 is easily within his skill set.
Undervalued: Alec Pierce, Wide Receiver ( WR36, Pick 77 OVR)
Alec Pierce is recovering from offseason ankle surgery, so folks are a bit hesitant to jump in on him. And I get it, he seems like a one-year wonder who got paid and who is unlikely to return on investment. But what if I told you that Alec Pierce’s 2025 campaign was just his 2024 campaign, but on more targets? Pierce led the NFL in yards per reception in each of the last two seasons (22.3 in 2024, 21.3 in 2024), and his yards per target were identical. His catch rates were also nearly identical (54% in 2024, 56% in 2025). He just grew from 4.3 targets in 2024 to 5.6 targets in 2025. I expect Pierce’s target volume to grow going into 2026, which will negatively impact his rate stats, but he also has some rate stats to give back. He will likely end up as a high-end WR3 (rather than a low-end one) when all is said and done.
Overvalued: Tyler Warren, Tight End (TE4, Pick 52 OVR)
This isn’t a, “I don’t like Tyler Warren” sentiment. I have him as my TE5. This is simply a, “the drop-off from Tyler Warren to Tucker Kraft isn’t going to be as big as you think (and I have Kraft higher, for what it’s worth), and that makes Warren a bad value” sentiment. Kraft goes a round and a half later, and if you tier Warren with Colston Loveland, then go for it. But Tucker Kraft is an elite talent who is getting unduly pushed down, and his value compared to Warren’s value makes Warren a less interesting click, for me.
There is a bear case for Warren, as he slowed in the second half of the season (after averaging 6.7 targets, 5.0 catches, and 61.7 yards per game in the first ten games of his career), just like the rest of the Colts. From weeks twelve through eighteen, Warren paced out to just 6.4 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 28.6 yards per game. Should those struggles continue, Warren is on the fast track to Bustville. I don’t think that is the case, but the struggles do concern me a bit, just enough to put him behind Tucker Kraft.
