The fantasy football playoffs are here! Your rosters should be tight, and your rosters should be at the peak of their game. Unfortunately, fantasy football is a huge nightmare that plagues us. An addiction that forces us to continue to reach in, week after week, and year after year. Fantasy football is a pain, which means your roster likely isn’t at full strength as we hit the fantasy football playoffs. We’ll be here until week seventeen, helping you plug those holes in your fantasy football roster to pull out a victory. As with every other week, we have two players available in at least 50% of fantasy football leagues, and one in at least 90% of leagues, at every position. Let’s dive in!
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston versus Kansas City (34% rostered)
Steve Spagnuolo had quarterbacks in a blender in the first few weeks of the season. But, cracks are forming for the Chiefs’ defense since their bye week. Don’t get me wrong, they’re still 12-1, and their defense isn’t immune from the sprinkling of pixie dust. But, they’ve been a targetable defense for streaming quarterbacks, In the eight games since their bye, six different quarterbacks tallied multiple touchdowns against them. Jameis won’t be any different. The Nick Chubb injuries rendered their running game useless, and subsequently, Winston averages 43 pass attempts per game as a starter. That’s enough to make it all work against what’s been a beatable pass defense lately. Since their week six bye, five of seven quarterbacks have multiple touchdowns against them, and three of the last four quarterbacks to play against them topped 280 total yards.
Will Levis versus Cincinnati (15% rostered)
What’s the definition of insanity? Will Levis failed to take advantage of an on-paper plus matchup last week against the Jaguars? But, the Jags have quietly been very good lately against not the Lions or Eagles, two of the best teams in the NFC. Since week 8, they held the Packers guys, Sam Darnold, C.J. Stroud, and Will Levis to under 16 fantasy points. The Bengals have no such resume, as only Desmond Ridder failed to top 14 fantasy points in their last six games, with only Ridder & Cooper Rush failing to top 24 fantasy points. The Bengals are a sieve on defense, and Will Levis can still take advantage of it.
Bryce Young Versus Dallas (7% rostered)
Bryce Young’s development took a hard turn recently from “likely bust” to “there could be something there.” We haven’t yet reached the heights of “that boy good,” but we are well on our way to him at least having consistent fantasy value if the Panthers can put something around him. He didn’t quite put up gaudy fantasy numbers last week (191 passing yards, one touchdown, one pick, and 29 rushing yards). But, he did that against the Eagles’ defense, who have evolved into one of the league’s best units since their bye week. The fact that he didn’t throw up on himself was an encouraging development. This week, he gets the Cowboys’ defense, which has become the antithesis of the Eagles’ defense. Since their week seven bye, five of the seven quarterbacks to go up against them finished with multiple touchdowns. The two that didn’t—C.J. Stroud and Drew Lock—did so while Joe Mixon ran all over them, and on a short week on Thanksgiving, respectively. Young should finish with about 275 passing yards, at least two touchdowns, and should kick in about 30 rushing yards, all for a nice little fantasy day.
Wide Receivers
Cedric Tillman versus Kansas City (33% rostered)
Tillman is a forgotten man now, but before his concussion, he was the toast of the fantasy town. In his four games from weeks 7-11, he averaged 10 targets, 6 receptions, and 75.5 yards per game, with three touchdowns in those four contests. He was a top-twelve wide receiver in three of those four games, and now he’s set to return against the Chiefs. While Kansas City is a bad matchup on paper, they’ve given up double-digit fantasy points to seven wide receivers in the last four games, with Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen both topping 8.5 PPR points, to boot. The Chiefs are a good pass defense this season, but they are susceptible to the deep ball: they allow the third-most yards per game on 20+ air-yard passes, and of the 137 receivers with at least 30 targets, Tillman’s 17.2% deep target rate ranks 43rd. On passes traveling at least 20 air yards, Tillman is averaging 27.5 yards per reception and has two touchdowns.
Quentin Johnston versus Tampa Bay (41% rostered)
On the Football Absurdity Podcast, Walker Kelly called QJ a “being wide open merchant” and Tampa Bay is the perfect team to take advantage of that… ability(?). Johnston will take on a Buccaneers squad that allows the second-highest wide receiver separation in the NFL (3.9 yards per target). Johnston, on open targets (3+ yards of separation, per NFL Next Gen Stats), has 20 receptions on 23 targets for 309 yards and 5 touchdowns. This ranks sixth in the NFL on a yards-per-target basis (min 20 wide-open targets). On his other targets, he has 6 catches on 36 targets, for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns.
This is a tricky one because it all hinges on Ladd McConkey’s availability. If McConkey plays, then I would rather play Joshua Palmer (16% rostered, 6/9 for 78 yards last week) as he is the clear backup to McConkey’s role in Los Angeles. But, Johnston’s role doesn’t change
Tim Patrick versus Buffalo (3% rostered)
Tim Patrick came over to the Lions late in the season and has been running as the #4 receiver behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Kalif Raymond. A foot injury sidelined Raymond, moving Tim Patrick up the depth chart. With no Raymond over the last two games due to a foot injury that slammed him onto IR, Patrick has 66% snap share and 70% snap share, running two of his three highest number of routes in the last two games. Last week he kicked in two touchdowns in a tough Green Bay matchup, but this week should be a shootout, and I am more interested in his raw targets than his production: he finished with seven targets last week, a 17% share. It’s likely he will keep the same share this week, and Goff will throw the ball at least 40 times again in a shoot-out with the Bills.
Running Backs
Sincere McCormick versus Atlanta (35% rostered)
The Raiders’ backfield was a mess of Alexander Mattison, Zamir White, and Ameer Abdullah before McCormick emerged last week. He finished with 15 carries for 78 yards and 2 catches for 11 yards against a porous Buccaneers defense. While the production is nice, the usage is what interests me. The 17 touches last week marks just the sixth time this season that a Raiders running back had more than 15 touches in a game. Those six instances rank as the sixth-lowest in the league, just one off the league-leading pace of the Bills, Cowboys, Jags, Browns, and Broncos. That shows a level of dedication that we haven’t seen the Raiders have so far this year. The matchup isn’t the best, as the Falcons allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the year. However, they’ve yielded 15+ PPR points to eight straight running backs to get double-digit touches against them.
Tyler Allgeier at Las Vegas (34% rostered)
On the other side of the field to McCormick, we have Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier is Bijan Robinson’s ostensible backup, but the Falcons have used him more lately, giving him 9+ touches in three of his last four games. Two of those games came in bad matchups, so he failed against the Chargers. Against the Vikings and Saints, he averaged 6.1 yards per carry and scored once. The Vegas defense is not one that particularly frightens me, despite them shutting down the messy Denver and Kansas City backfields lately. Speaking of that backfield…
Jaleel McLaughlin versus Indianapolis (10% rostered)
Before their bye, the Broncos played merry-go-round with their running back room, giving Audric Estimé, Javonte Williams, and Jaleel McLaughlin a crack at starters’ carries, in a row. Estimé finished going 14 for 53 yards, Javonte managed to go 17 for 57 yards across two games, and McLaughlin went 14 for 84 in week thirteen, against a tough Browns run defense. With that in mind, McLaughlin has the lead as the hot hand in that backfield, so I am willing to give him a continuance as the lead running back in this room. With the Colts and their bottom-five run defense on the docket this week (5 running backs with 12+ PPR points in their last three games), McLaughlin should get plenty of fantasy production this week.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz versus New Orleans (48% rostered)
I’m sorry but there isn’t much to say here for Ertz, so this is going to be short: over the last three games he has 21 targets, 15 receptions, 120 yards, and three touchdowns. He’s TE5 in that span and TE11 on the season.
Noah Gray at Cleveland (19% rostered)
Noah Gray went quiet last week, notching only 26 receiving yards. That doesn’t bother me, after all, the Chargers are 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. He is averaging 5 targets per game in the last four games, and he’s caught four of those balls in every contest. That gives him a nice floor. His ceiling comes with his opponent this week; the Browns allow the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Since their bye (removing Taysom Hill’s chaos from this equation), they’ve let Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, and Pat Freiermuth (twice) drop at least 8 PPR points on them. They did it without getting beaucoup targets either; those four players averaged just 3.5 targets in these games.
Grant Calcaterra versus Pittsburgh (5% rostered)
I’m going back to the well with Calcaterra this week, as the Eagles put Dallas Goedert on IR. Last week, Calcaterra came through with 3 catches for 16 yards and, most importantly, a touchdown. He should get more volume this week against the Steelers, who are one of the best matchups for tight ends and one of the worst matchups for wide receivers. So, Jalen Hurts will lean on his tight end in this one. They’ve allowed double-digit PPR games to tight ends in back-to-back weeks, letting Mike Gesicki and David Njoku combine for 27.5 PPR points on a combined 12 receptions, 95 yards, and a touchdown.
