Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
3-1 last week, including hitting on my long-shot pick! I gotta say, it feels pretty good when your accountability process goes well (looking at you, Dez Bryant). As the season winds down, it’s pretty important to focus on who still has the incentive to do whatever it takes to win. Fantasy playoffs being done a week before the season ends is great for fantasy teams, but for gambling degenerates like us, it provides another data point to focus on as we look for an edge. With that in mind, let’s look at the games.
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 (-108)
When the Rams are healthy, they’re one of the most dangerous teams in the league. The Rams are healthy. When the Giants play football, they’re one of the worst teams in the league. The Giants are playing football in this game. This line should be higher, and it isn’t. Give me the team that is on an absolute heater, with a QB and RB that are absolutely dealing right now. I don’t think this one is remotely close, and if it is, I still think these two are separated by more than a touchdown.
Philadelphia Eagles -11.5 (-110)
Blowout City continues in Philly, as the Eagles look to continue holding 1st place in the division over Dallas. The Eagles haven’t been playing their best football over the course of the past 4 weeks, going 2-2. The problem is that Arizona hasn’t been playing good football all season, and because of the Philly run game and lack of rush defense on the other side, running the ball to slow down the clock in the second half might still result in some long rushing touchdowns. I expect Philly to win by two of ‘em.
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-102)
I saw a stat during Thursday night football that said Baltimore was great against teams with a winning record, but I was a little blitzed so I had to look it up today: against teams with a winning record in 2023, the Ravens are 6-1 and have a +133 point differential. Conversely, the Dolphins beat Dallas last week, making their record 2-6 against teams with a winning record under the Mike McDaniel regime, with the last one coming against Buffalo in week 3 of 2022. This game has number one overall seeding ramifications, so I expect both teams to bring their best, but the Ravens defense comes out on top. The -3.5 is scary, so if you want to lose a little to make it -2.5 you can. I’m sticking to my guns.
Long Shot Play of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline (+140)
I hit one long shot play and all of a sudden I think I’m smart enough to bet on Pittsburgh. Geno Smith’s regression to a pumpkin is this year’s longest-developing Animorphs cover since it’s taken all year despite herculean performances by his skill position players and beat-up offensive line. Both quarterbacks suck, so I’m taking a shot on the team with the running back matchup I like more and the best edge rusher. Geno is terrible under pressure, the Seahawks give up big plays on the ground constantly, and the 12th man can’t do anything about it as Pittsburgh steals a road win in December.
