The Degenerate’s Gambit: 2023 Week 13 NFL Gambling Lines with Tony

Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700. 

Okay, we’re back on track here, folks. My days of feeling like the Gambling George Santos are over, and unlike some people, I beat the charges. As a free man, I can take a few risks and not worry too much about the repercussions, but since I’m still only making a teacher’s salary, I can’t afford to get THAT cocky (wouldn’t mind stealing from some of my constituents, though- the holidays are expensive). This week’s theme will be “Tony Accidentally Picked All Road Teams.” While neither intentional nor catchy, we’re going with it regardless. 

Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 (-110) 

My goodness, how the mighty have fallen. From a dark horse Super Bowl candidate at the start of last season, the collective bed-shitting of the Chargers organization finds themselves measly 5.5 road favorites against one of the three worst teams in football. The Chargers are a much superior team, and should easily go into Foxborough and beat ass, warts and all. The best way to beat LA is through the air, but I don’t want to bet that Bailey Zappe can come in and take advantage to a degree that keeps this game within a touchdown. 

Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110)

The Saints can’t seem to rush the passer this season, and a painful loss to the Desmond Ridder-led Falcons doesn’t inspire me when they go up against one of the top seeds in the NFC at home this week. Sure, Jared Goff can animorph into Jared Goof on the road in December, but in a dome, against a team that can’t get to the QB, that struggles to score? Yeah, I’m taking the Lions and the points. 

Arizona Cardinals/Pittsburgh Steelers Over 41.5 (-105)

Okay, here me out: betting Steelers overs sounds like a bad time, right? If I told you Arizona is falling apart even more now than they were before Kyler came back, you’d agree, I’d hope? I’m taking the over here for a couple of reasons: both of these teams have enough skill position firepower to beat incredibly vulnerable defenses. Arizona can’t stop the run, Pittsburgh can’t stop the pass. The new Domestic Steelers offense (nothing Canadian) is going to hammer Pat Freiermuth over the middle, both backs should eat, and Kyler/James Conner/Hollywood Brown are a trio that can put points up on a front like Pittsburgh’s. I’m taking the points and hoping for a real sneaky shootout. 

Long Shot Play of the Week: Denver Broncos Moneyline (+142) 

I hate rooting for Sean Payton more than most, but seeing these odds for a Denver road win caught me off guard. I feel like the discrepancy I’m identifying in this pricing is rooted in the fact that America wants Houston to beat ass, because they’re young and fun, whereas Denver is boring and the offense is led by a dude with the vibes of a megachurch pastor that can’t skateboard. However, in my mind, the edge in this game comes from a defense that can do just enough against the pass, and a sneakily improving running game. Denver is on a five-game winning streak, and these two teams are tied with Indianapolis for the last playoff spot. I’m taking the upset here, and hoping for a high-scoring matchup. 

Last Week: 3-1
Year To Date: 27-21 (3-9 on Long Shot Plays) 

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