The Degenerate’s Gambit: 2023 Week 12 NFL Gambling Lines with Tony

myles garrett cleveland browns

Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700. 

1-3 last week? In THIS economy? I’m feeling your pain, reader. My family had to go without last week, and it’s all due to the Bears refusing to stop anyone, Matt Canada being Matt Canada, and …a Russ Wilson comeback?? What year is this? Quick, young man, what year is this? Is Lil Nas X still popular? Young man, come back here and answer me! 

Tampa Bay/Indianapolis OVER 44.5 (-110) 

The joy of sports gambling and fantasy football is that it gives you a reason to give a shit about two teams you otherwise refuse to acknowledge. Before I made this bet in order to write this blurb, I couldn’t have cared less about this game, except for the fact that each team’s QB is almost guaranteed to be top 5 on the list of NFL starting quarterbacks in terms of how much cocaine they’ve snorted (lifetime, adjusted over average). However, now that I’ve got money invested, I’m going to be glued to the TV. Indy is weak at stopping backs and alpha WRs that can take advantage of the soft zone they play, and while Mike Evans and Rachaad White continue their great seasons, on the other side there’s no reason why Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Josh Downs won’t eat. Take the over and let’s get weird. 

Los Angeles Rams -1.5 (-110) 

You might notice a theme this week, where we’re focusing on mismatches and the corresponding offensive advantages that present themselves. The Cardinals are a mismatch for themselves: they can’t get to the QB, they can’t stop opposing RBs from the end zone, and their zone defense is POROUS. Kyler has injected life into the Arizona offense, but until this defense gets shored up the team is going to be playing from behind a lot. Speaking of playing from behind, did I mention that the Cardinals can’t stop the run? 

Baltimore -3 (-112) 

Betting against the Chargers just always makes a ton of sense (sorry, Shane). As a millennial, the Chargers organization makes a ton of sense to me: there are the poor people who are poor because they never had a chance, and the poor people who are poor because they don’t know how to keep and maintain the opportunities they were given. I grew up poor, so it couldn’t be me. The Chargers are the latter, the trust fund kid that has all the talent and opportunity in the world but would rather do cocaine with NFL QBs than get a good job. I like the Chargers and want to see Justin Herbert be successful, so I’m hoping a Ravens domination moves Brandon Staley one step closer to the unemployment line. 

LONG SHOT PLAY OF THE WEEK: Cleveland Moneyline (+100) 

Okay, remember what I said about looking for offensive mismatches? Fuck it, let’s get weird. Regular, sensible Tony doesn’t write this section of the column- this is Bizarro Tony, and I’m an absolute gremlin. The Broncos are quietly improving, but you can’t beat the fact that Denver misses an absurd amount of tackles on defense, and that’s why Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are going to blow the doors off this team. Russ is trash, ignore all the stats and logic that quietly indicate that he’s improving this year. HE’S TRASH. Cleveland destroys opposing QBs and WRs, and Denver has only scored one rushing touchdown this season. Join me, and let’s make money off the downfall of Sean Payton. 

Last Week: 1-3
Year To Date: 24-20 (3-8 on Long Shot Plays) 

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