Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
Finally, a return to .500 on a week for me, which all things considered wasn’t too bad given the long shot play of the week was up 28-7 late in the 3rd quarter. Learning and adapting to new information is what keeps us ahead of the pack, and so far I’ve learned a couple of things: stop betting against the Titans (but the under is always in play), because they either look completely helpless, or they read these articles and are winning out of spite.
ANYWAYS, I never got my job offer to work at Bank of America, which is probably for the best. I’ll still hold out hope, mostly because I already threw away my Guy Fawkes mask. Let’s move on to the picks and hope that we elevate ourselves from the rest of the 99%.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots UNDER 39.5 (-110)
Hey look, it’s a matchup that we won’t see on Red Zone more than four times on Sunday! The Saints go into this matchup averaging 15.7 points per game, while the Patriots are averaging 13.7. Both teams feature offenses with skill position relevancy behind the bottom 10 offensive lines and quarterbacks that just can’t get done. Both defenses are banged up, but inefficiency at QB and bad running games mean this one should be a punt fest.
Carolina Panthers +10 @ Detroit Lions (-110)
Don’t interpret this as anything more than a garbage time pick, because if I’m being honest there are very few worlds where Carolina is even in the same league as the Lions. That said, last year the blueprint for beating the boys from Detroit was written partially by the Panthers: establish the run, shorten the game, and you have a chance. I don’t think Carolina is going to win, but I do think they keep it within two scores with a few mop-up drives against a Lions defense playing a very soft zone to run out the clock.
Miami Dolphins -11.5 vs New York Giants (-115)
This game should allow for another few clips to be added to the mixtape of Brian Daboll yelling at players or coaches on the sideline. The Giants play a lot of man coverage, which means Jaylen Waddle should shred a defense that can’t cover particularly well. While Tua is traditionally much better against zone defenses and weaker against the blitz, we know Wink Martindale’s pressures just don’t have the same panache when the guys in the back can’t stop anyone. At the same time, the Miami defense should clean up against what has been easily the worst offensive line in the league. Even if Andrew Thomas comes back, injuries have decimated this unit. This one should be a 20-25 point Dolphins home win.
Long Shot Play of the Week: Houston Texans Moneyline (+108) @ Atlanta
The best thing a degenerate gambler can do is look for narrative-induced mispriced lines, and this is one of them for me. We know historically the Texans can’t stop the run, and Atlanta has one of the best in the league in their backfield, while also playing at home. With that said, the Falcons offense has been on a cold streak, scoring 13 combined points over the past two weeks as defenses have caught on to how bad Desmond Ridder truly is. To keep up with a Houston team scoring over 20 points a game, they’re going to need to pass. As a result, they won’t be able to. CJ Stroud, Bijan Robinson, and Nico Collins are all going to go off, but it’ll be an easy Texans win on Sunday.
Last Week: 2-2
Total: 11-5 (1-3 on Long Shot Plays)