Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
Let me tell you a little secret of the trade: it’s all about confidence. I am, if nothing else, a man of confidence. A confidence man, if you will. Now, there’s a fine line between being a confidence man and being a gaslighter, and the secret to the grift is simple: a pure, unshakeable level of confidence in oneself.
Did I go 1-4 last week? Maybe, but my god it absolutely wasn’t my fault. How could I have known? I would never lead you astray on purpose. You know that, right?
Seattle/Kansas City OVER 48.5
This game should be an absolute bonanza of scoring. You have two strong offenses, facing defenses that hemorrhage points and yards. Seattle’s stud defensive backfield doesn’t necessarily cover the slot or tight end positions very well, and Kansas City can’t seem to stop wide receivers. Seattle can’t stop the run… you get the picture, right? This might be the highest-scoring game of the weekend, and will absolutely be the highest-rostered game in all DFS slates.
Dallas/Philadelphia UNDER 47.5
No Hurts, no over! Dallas being a pass funnel defense plays perfectly into what I would assume is a somewhat different game plan by Philly. You’d assume they would lean on the run, and that’s the strong suit of the Cowboys’ defense. This point total is just as much a reflection of Gardner Minshew’s charm as it is of the teams playing in the game itself. I get it, trust me. I’ve told every romantic partner I’ve had since 2019 to avert their eyes when he comes on the tv. I’ve only had two romantic partners in that time, and it would be just one if the first partner didn’t accidentally see that gorgeous head of hair, immediately book a flight for Jacksonville, and never call again. Her parents still call, but I stopped answering.
Las Vegas ML
Never underestimate the power of a team who just got the stupidest win in NFL history only a mere 5 days before this game takes place. The Raiders struggle against the run, but the Steelers can’t stop the pass. The X factor here is Kenny Pickett, and by X factor I mean “the reason I’m picking the Raiders.” The Mitchell Trubisky era has ended once again, and Yung Hands himself is back and ready to drag this game directly to hell. I expect a ton of punts, a highlight Davante Adams catch, and a Raiders team ready to ride high and take themselves even further away from a draft pick that they truly, truly need.
LSPOTW: Chicago ML
I, like the loudest parts of the Football Absurdity brain trust, live in the greater Chicagoland area (stop me if you’ve heard this before). I try to avoid naked homerism, so let me explain to you why this isn’t just me being a total idiot: this is actually a bad win for the Bears’ future, should they sneak out a win. They could potentially lose 2-4 draft spots with an upset against the Bills on Sunday. After playing a competitive game against the Eagles on Sunday, the Bears might catch a sleeping Bills team that has truthfully struggled on the defensive side of the ball as of late. I don’t have a ton of confidence in this pick, but I’ve got a sneaking suspicion I might be right (this is what we call “hedging” in the industry).
Underdog (using my winnings from tournaments I entered before I found out it was funded by Blackrock) Parlay!
Joe Mixon Under 59.5 rushing
Jakobi Meyers Over 46.5 receiving
Alvin Kamara Over 65.5 rushing