Everything sucks and everyone has COVID! Gambling is becoming a measured crapshoot and your choices are half chance, just like everyone else. Unless you are me, and you had a hunch on the Lions money line last week. I did just fine! Let’s talk about Week 16!
At this point in the season, regardless of COVID, we have a pretty good feel for which teams play hard every week (Chiefs, Lions, Packers) and the teams that have given up (Jets, Jaguars, Bears). It might just be easiest to bet the spread on the teams that are coming around and playing good football.
And yes, I do actually include the Lions in the play-hard part of this discussion. They are going out and legitimately trying to win every week, and their human Miller Genuine Draft keg of a head coach, Dan Campbell, has them ready to run through brick walls as soon as the game starts. It’s worth remembering that they are a tie, a miracle Justin Tucker field goal, and two other game-winning field goals by the other team away from having six wins and still having a shot to make the playoffs this season. For a team whose best player showed up to training camp insanely overweight (D’Andre Swift) and their best receiving being the somehow less famous of the St. Brown brothers, this team might actually be closer to contending than people think. It’s a shame they are the Lions and will inevitably screw this up.
Sometimes the easiest bets are just betting the teams that are playing hard at this point in the season, and those are the bets we are making this week. Let’s take a look.
Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers
The NFC is a mess behind the Packers. The Bucs might be the second-best team in the conference, but they aren’t playing like it. The Cowboys might be the second-best team, but their offense hasn’t worked in weeks. The Cardinals might be the second-best team, but losing to the Lions is a cannonball hole through their credibility. The Rams have the same record as the Cardinals but are currently fifth in the NFC standings. Are the Eagles the team to watch? Will someone else from the bottom emerge?
Well, none of it really matters past the first sentence. The Packers are the best team in the NFC. They seem poised to have Aaron Rodgers complete one of the all-time F.U. seasons in NFL history.
The Browns are a try-hard mess right now that’s been ravaged not only by COVID but also by more garden variety injuries, too. At one point, it looked like the Browns were in line to take over the AFC North and run with it. Then they remembered they were the Browns and promptly fell apart faster than my annual New Year’s Resolution to go on a diet.
I’m taking the Packers giving the points at home. This feels like an easy one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) at Carolina Panthers
The Buccaneers have three weeks to get themselves right. Chris Godwin is out for the year, which hurts. But noted “guy who has no business being allowed to be in the NFL” Antonio Brown is back. Leonard Fournette is out. Rob Gronkowski is going to be intentionally hit by a car at some point for those gawd-awful insurance commercials he is doing. Tom Brady might actually, dare I say, look like a guy in his mid 40’s trying to play the toughest position in sports.
And yet, none of that really matters because they are playing a Panthers team that has functionally given up. I know I say this every week, but who would have thought that praying Sam Darnold would get good was a bad quarterback plan, or that Cam Newton could be their savior? Panthers fans ate it up, too! When Justin Fields and Mac Jones were still on the board in the NFL draft, they drafted a cornerback with injury concerns and their fans were like, “we are going to be so good!”
Well, your team isn’t good, and whatever drugs Carolina fans take to make themselves feel good about their team, I’d like to take so I can feel good about mine.
I’m taking the Bucs, who are most likely going to win this game by 30.
New York Giants (+9.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have rushed for at least 170 yards per game for a couple of months now, which is a really good thing when nobody is sure your quarterback could hit the broad side of the barn with a pass, or if any of his receivers would actually catch it if it was thrown to them. They are playing on a short week, which would be an issue, except…
They are playing a Giants team that might be the most pathetic in the NFL. If you haven’t read about it, last week the Giants decided to hold fan appreciation day at the stadium. Not only were the fans treated to a Mike Glennon-led helpless loss to a Cowboys team that didn’t look interested to be there, but all season ticket holders were also given a free medium Pepsi.
And when I say all season ticket holders, I mean specifically the person who bought the season tickets. Do you have 2 season tickets? Here is a voucher for one free Pepsi. You got six? Here is a voucher for one free Pepsi. That was it. I recently read a biography about the birth of the NFL called “The League.” It is worth the read if you want to do one thing and one thing only: Hate the Giants more than you already do. The Mara family has been a group of prolapsed anuses since the 1920s.
Anyway, the Giants are trying to make sure Mike Glennon is healthy enough to play, I assume to keep any crows from landing on the field and picking at the sod. Otherwise, it will be Jake Fromm, and the fact that Fromm gives Giants fans hopes tells you everything you need to know about this dilapidated franchise.
The Eagles seem to be playing their best football at the right time of the season and should have no problem beating a team that doesn’t even respect their fans enough to give them an NFL quarterback.
I’m taking the Eagles.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
You might not be lying if you said that you didn’t watch the Bears vs. Vikings taffy pull on Monday Night Football this past week. You would probably also be a liar. It was the most-watched Monday Night Football game in ten years! And it was trash! I am not speaking in hyperbole when I say the ENTIRE Bears secondary was out. They were starting a guy whose name was BoPete. His first name! One of their starting cornerbacks hadn’t played a meaningful snap of football since the Rose Bowl in January of 2020, 23 months ago, for you keeping track.
Against that secondary, Kirk Cousins threw for 87 yards, completing 50% of his passes.
The Vikings might have a playoff spot currently, but Minnesota making the playoffs is proof that a seven-team playoff is garbage. This team couldn’t win the Roof Claim dot com Boca Raton Bowl, let alone a playoff game. The Rams are back in the race to win a division title. Also, Cooper Kupp might get 200 receiving yards against this dumpy ass defense.
I’m taking the Rams, and like the Bucs, I might push the spread out by a bunch. If you parlay the Rams -13.5 with the Bucs -19.5 right now, you are getting 13 to 1 odds on your money, which might be the closest a longshot will be to free money all season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
One of these teams hasn’t lost in two months. The other team is the Chiefs.
I’m taking the Chiefs and not looking back. Happy Holidays and Happy Gambling, everyone!
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