Fantasy Football Absurdity Check: Is Corey Davis Legit?

waiver wire waiver wire wide receiver sleepers corey davis tennessee titans new york jets absurdity check start or sitwide receiver sleepers corey davis tennessee titans absurdity check start or sit

Corey Davis played his fifth game of the year this week (he missed time due to COVID-19). He turned ten targets into eight catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. Obviously, I can’t see the future, so I can’t tell you where he ended the week. But, pending Monday Night Football, he ranks as the WR5 on the week in half-PPR. He’s been good this year, but we had previously left him for dead (just 47% rostered). Is it time to start trusting Corey Davis?

First of all, let’s take a look at Corey Davis’ season thus far. As I said, he missed some games with COVID-19. While new studies show that up to 25% of patients can have adverse effects for months (hello, Cam Newton?), Corey Davis does not appear to be on that list. He has two touchdowns and fourteen catches in his two games since returning from COVID-19 IR. He had just 35 yards last week, but that makes for 163 yards in the last two weeks (and 20 targets!).

If you loop in his first three games before the entire Titans squad fell apart, he is currently on pace for 93 catches, 1,180 yards, and ten touchdowns. This puts him at 13.88 fantasy points per game in half-PPR. This makes him WR17 on a per-game basis, ahead of Will Fuller, Chase Claypool, and Keenan Allen. He has one game under ten HPPR fantasy points, and zero games under nine HPPR fantasy points. That’s #prettygood for a guy who is rostered in less than half of Yahoo! leagues.

There isn’t anything really out of whack with Davis’ production, either. While his yards per target is higher than his career average, his yards per reception remains the same. He has a big spike in catch rate, but playing with Ryan Tannehill instead of Marcus Mariota will do that. An increase in target volume also accounts for a big chunk of his production boost, as well. He’s on a 125 target pace after spending his career at a 95 target pace.

But, here’s the bad news. The next four weeks for Corey Davis are an unmitigated disaster of difficult fantasy football matchups. The Titans host the Bears and the Colts, then they travel to Baltimore and Indianapolis. These teams rank thirtieth (Bears), eighteenth (Colts), and twenty-fourth (Ravens) in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. Unless you are in dire straits at wide receiver, it’s hard to see a matchup in November that looks good for Corey.

But, try to snag him over the next four weeks on the cheap and stash him, if you can.

After that gauntlet, Davis opens December with the Browns (#2 in fantasy points allowed), the Jaguars (#14), and the Lions (#8 in fantasy points allowed). He won’t be a great play for the next four weeks, but things open up for him after that. He’s on a 125 target pace, however, so it’s possible that the matchups won’t matter. After all, he scored last week against the Steelers, who have a strong defense.

Corey Davis is finally breaking through as the fantasy football wide receiver we had all pictured when the Titans took him top-ten in the draft. He is a WR2 right now, but drops down to a WR3 or flex over the next four weeks due to matchups. He is a good start over the last few weeks of the season. Ultimately, I think you should go get Corey Davis. He’s a talented receiver who is getting a lot of targets for a good team. He has some bad matchups coming up, but his target volume might overcome that. You don’t have to immediately start Corey Davis as soon as you add him, it’s legal to keep him on the bench and everything!

But, to answer your question: Corey Davis is legit.

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About Jeff Krisko

You can follow me on twitter, @jeffkrisko for the same lukewarm takes you read here.

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