It’s week 14 of the NFL season, meaning we are hitting the betting home stretch. It also means, for those of you that have survived this long, we have hit the fantasy football playoffs. Every year, millions of Americans log onto their client of choice weekly thinking they have created the perfect football team, only to find that by this point of the year, they are praying for Mike Gesicki touchdowns and for the Cardinals to throw a garbage-time touchdown to knock down the Rams defensive points. But, this article is about NFL gambling, why am I bringing up fantasy football?
Fantasy football creates a skewed vision of what is actually happening on a football field. As more and more people become football agnostic, eschewing cheering for their own teams for rooting for individual players and whatever team they gambled on, it can become more difficult to see what is real and what is fake out there on a week to week basis. You aren’t thinking about the Patriots not covering the spread when James White scored you a bunch of garbage time points. The Lions losing on Thanksgiving and not covering the spread doesn’t really matter because Kenny Golladay had a big game.
It is easy to let individual performances skew what you think about a team’s talent level. The key is, if you have a football eye of any kind, you should be able to see, plain as day, which teams are good, and which teams are bad. Week 14 is laying out some golden NFL gambling opportunities if you are able to see through the fantasy haze. Let’s get gambling!
NFL Gambling Advice:
Indianapolis Colts (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What we absolutely know about the Colts:
They are currently operating on the strength of their run game. They are getting contributions from everyone on the depth chart that is taking the game out of Jacoby Brissett’s hands as he seems to have been slowed in recent weeks by injury.
What we absolutely know about the Bucs:
They turn the ball over. Kind of a lot. Jameis Winston is Brett Favre with a lot of “outside football” stuff that makes him super unlikeable. They also put up a ton of points and have a very good offense.
What this comes down to:
Can the Colts defense slow the Buccaneers offense down enough on the road to keep the game close enough that they can focus on the running game? They were not able to do it against Tennessee last week, and Jameis Winston is generally (always) a more dangerous quarterback than Ryan Tannehill. The Colts are 12th in interception percentage, 13th in yards per attempt, and 14th in yards per attempt in the air. They are 12th in sack percentage.
The Colts defense is decent at a lot of stuff but isn’t great at anything. If they try to blitz too much, Winston is simply going to take to the air. If they don’t blitz, they will give Jameis time to scramble around and do Jameis stuff. I like the Bucs getting points at home this week.
NFL Gambling Advice:
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Oakland Raiders
What we absolutely know about the Titans:
Their offense has been revitalized with the benching of Marcus Mariota and “back from the dead” routine of Ryan Tannehill.
What we absolutely know about the Raiders:
The NFL has figured out that Derek Carr can’t throw a deep pass to save his life and is completely dependent on his tight ends to keep his passing game functional.
What this comes down to:
Can either team stop the opposing running back? Josh Jacobs is on pace for a 1,300 rushing yard rookie season. Derrick Henry is in December Derrick Henry Mode. Over his past 16 games, he has rushed for 1,700 yards. It’s also the time of the year when he usually rips off a 200-yard rushing game. In some respects, the defenses are even, especially against the run.
But, the Raiders are giving up points on 41% of the time, while the Titans are only giving up points 31% of the time. All things equal, I’ll take the Titans giving points on the road.
NFL Gambling Advice:
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
What we absolutely know about the Steelers:
In spite of the fact that they are on their third-string quarterback, they are still in the playoff hunt on the strength of their defense, which has played among the best in the NFL over the past eight weeks.
What we absolutely know about the Cardinals:
Their offensive line is basically a Wal-Mart on Black Friday, just an absolute free for all, with people getting run over everywhere.
What this comes down to:
How little does the Steelers offense really need to score to not only get the win but cover the spread? There is every chance in the world that the Steelers defense is going to manage around six sacks, hold whoever is picked out of the barrel to rush for the Cardinals this week under 3.0 yards rushing, and slow down the passing attack by putting Minkah Fitzpatrick on Larry Fitzgerald all day.
But can Duck Hodges actually get the ball downfield enough to get the Steelers in a comfortable spot? The answer should be yes. Even with his lack of experience, the Cardinals are, by far, the worst pass defense in football. They have given up nearly 3700 yards and 31 touchdowns so far this season. That means opposing quarterbacks are averaging over 300 yards per game and more than two touchdowns per game.
Even with an anemic rush offense, the Steelers should be able to get it down through the air and win easily. I’ll take the Steelers on the road giving points.
NFL Gambling Advice:
Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at New England Patriots
What we absolutely know about the Chiefs:
Their offense, when running at full gear, is the best in the league, and can put 40 points on anybody
What we absolutely know about the Patriots:
Their defense, which is considered their strength, hasn’t been able to stop teams with explosive quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson.
What this comes down to:
Does Bill Belichick have the ability to dial-up enough pressure on Patrick Mahomes that he isn’t able to sit in the pocket and wait for his armada of speedy receivers to get open? Even though the Chiefs defense isn’t great, the Patriots have shown just as much that their offense is going to struggle to get the job done, especially against teams that can put up a lot of points. You can get away with what’s left of Tom Brady when you are playing the Jets. You can’t when you are playing the Chiefs.
The Patriots are going to have to win on the ground, and that’s not gonna be enough to slow down the Chiefs offense. I like the Chiefs getting a field goal on the road.
NFL Gambling Advice:
Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) at Cleveland Browns
What we absolutely know about the Bengals:
They got their one win, now it’s time to pack in and go back into tanking mode so they can get the number one pick in the draft next season.
What we absolutely know about the Browns:
They have the talent to be one of the top teams in the conference but are one of the most poorly coached teams in the NFL. And their offensive line sucks. And their best player is suspended until god knows when.
What this comes down to:
Nick Chubb. If Nick Chubb gets going, then it’s not going to matter how many times Baker Mayfield tries throwing it to a shocked Bengals defender. This has the feel of a 150 yard, two-touchdown day for the Browns running back, and if he is tearing it up on the ground that should easily give the Browns passing game the opportunity to move downfield.
The season is over for both teams, and none of this matters, so it feels like a really obvious time for the Browns to randomly spurt out a 38 point game and comfortably win by 18 at home. I like the Browns giving the points.
Brandon Andreasen is the founder of Fancy Boys Club. You can find him on Twitter @theBman. He offers his NFL gambling tips every week in the 30 Team Parlay
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You can find the rest of our Week 14 advice here (be sure to check back as the week develops!)
