(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Phillip_Lindsay_2018.JPG under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en)
As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and PPR leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best running back value lies.
Leonard Fournette ADP and AAV
Standard: 14th among RBs, 24th overall
PPR: 14th among RBs, 29th overall
Leonard Fournette Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $33
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 37th | 98.4 | 14th | 12.3 |
| 2017 | 8th | 194.2 | 5th | 14.9 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 40th | 120.4 | 12th | 15.1 |
| 2017 | 9th | 230.2 | 7th | 17.7 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
FANTASY USAGE
| Carries | Carries Per Game | Targets | Targets Per Game | |
| 2018 | 133 | 16.6 | 26 | 3.3 |
| 2017 | 268 | 20.6 | 48 | 3.7 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Overview: When he’s on the field, Fournette is one of the most powerful RB1s. When he’s on the field. However, injuries have plagued Fournette, both in the pros and college (and we wouldn’t be surprised if this goes all the way back to his pee wee football days.) Since 2016, he has suffered 7 injuries to his legs and feet, five in the NFL, including one injury because someone “stepped on his foot.” With Bortles most likely out in Jacksonville, Fournette’s production should improve if he can stay healthy.
Strategy: Our Leonard Fournette Auction Value ($200 Budget): $30
He’s going in the 2nd/3rd round and for higher-en RB2 auction money. I won’t touch him until the fourth or if he falls to the $low 30s. I’ve watched Fournette since his college days, and his nagging leg and foot issues make it difficult for him to perform well for stretches of several games. For instance, in 2017 he started the season with 6 solid games, then never went a three-game stretch without having a four-point or less fantasy stinker. In 2018 he had a three-game stretch with 22, 19, and 22 points, but his other totals for the 5 games he played were 5, 3, 3, 5, 12. He’s been that guy you hate to have in your lineup because you never can be sure if he’s playing injured. Don’t reach for him
Best Case Scenario: Fournette actually sits when injured and gives you 10 solid starts.
Worst Case Scenario: Fournette continues his streak of imploding when fantasy owners need him most. Take that in: Fournette going out for the season in week 4 is not the worst-case scenario, because it means you won’t have to start him for <6 measly points.
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