As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and points per game leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best running back value lies.
Nick Chubb ADP and AAV
Standard: 12th among RBs, 19th overall
PPR: 12th among TEs, 21nd overall
Nick Chubb Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $32
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 15th | 174.5 | 18th | 10.9 |
| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 17th | 194.5 | 25th | 12.2 |
| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
FANTASY USAGE
| Carries | Carries Per Game | Targets | Targets Per Game | |
| 2018 | 192 | 12.0 | 29 | 1.8 |
| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Overview: Once he finally got the go-ahead to start games in his rookie year, Nick Chubb exploded. He ran for a whopping 5.2 yards per carry. With the Browns getting rid of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson disgruntling his way off the roster, the path is clear for Chubb to take on the workhorse role.
Strategy: Our Nick Chubb Auction Value ($200 Budget): $48
Along with Juju Smith-Schuster, Chubb is the safest 2nd round pick to get you a 1rst round return. Once his workload upped from 3 carries per game to 18 from week 7 on, Chubb was on fire. His numbers during that time would extrapolate to 232.7 points in standard over an entire season, good enough for RB6. With the Browns offense expected to take a step forward, Chubb has a clear path to finishing as a high-end top 12 RB.
Let’s talk about auction. Right now, Chubb’s auction value is going criminally low (as low as $26 on Fantasy Pros). There’s a reason why our humble site is one of the most preferred places for auction values, and you can use it to dominate your league. I’m giving you the key to the mint, here, so listen up:
When the bigger sites calculate their average auction values, they usually do so by taking their draft rankings and converting them to dollars. This linear conversion does not reflect how auctions usually end up. Big sites tend to assign 9th-13th round players a value between $3-10. However, in real life auctions, there are always a huge handful of those players that go for a buck or two. Meanwhile, most sites make up this overestimate by having lower values on the first few rounds, when actually those top-desired players tend to go for above “predicted value.” So always be willing to reach for a first- or second-round player in an auction, you can easily make up the deficit by value shopping the lower ends of your roster. We’d gladly pay mid-$40s for Nick Chubb.
Best Case Scenario: Chubb grows with the Browns’ offense, sees little crowded-box defenses, and cruises to a top 6 finish.
Worst Case Scenario: Chubb has a sophomore slump and gets mid-RB2 values, which is where he is currently being drafted. Get this guy.
