As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and PPR leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best tight end value lies.
Travis Kelce ADP and AAV
Standard: 1st among TEs, 16th overall
PPR: 1st among TEs, 17th overall
Travis Kelce Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $39
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 1st | 191.6 | 1st | 12 |
| 2017 | 2nd | 150.5 | 2nd | 10.0 |
| 2016 | 1s | 138.01 | 1st | 8.6 |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 1st | 294.6 | 1st | 18.4 |
| 2017 | 1st | 233.5 | 2nd | 15.6 |
| 2016 | 1st | 223.0 | 2nd | 13.9 |
PLAYER USAGE
| Receptions | Receptions Per Game | Targets | Targets Per Game | |
| 2018 | 103 | 6.4 | 150 | 9.3 |
| 2017 | 83 | 5.5 | 122 | 8.1 |
| 2016 | 85 | 5.3 | 117 | 7.3 |
Overview: For the last three years, Kelce has ended the year as the league’s top fantasy football tight end, and his stats in the last two seasons would have made him a WR1. There were questions about Tyreek Hill’s unavailability that could have changed his outlook, but it’s all systems go for the league’s best tight end.
Strategy: Our Auction Value ($200 Budget): $43
The gap between the top-three tight ends and the rest of the pack is black hole sized. Kelce remains the top tier tight with the highest floor in the potent Chiefs offense. He hasn’t suffered any major injuries in recent history, and he’s established himself as the go-to target for the highest-producing fantasy quarterback. We expect him to creep into the end of the first round ADPs come August, and we’ll gladly take him at the start of the second. We’d pay more than Travis Kelce’s AAV, as top tight ends are scarce and well-worth the positional advantage they grant.
Best Case Scenario: Travis Kelce and the Chiefs offense picks right up where it left off, leaving a path of devastation in their wake. He re-breaks the tight end yardage record that he held for an hour in the 2018 season.
Worst Case Scenario: Kelce finishes, like, third among tight ends? It’s rare that a tight end gets so close to first-round ADP, and this is why.
