As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and PPR leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best tight end value lies.
Eric Ebron ADP and AAV
Current ADP: As of 06/19/2019
Standard: 7th among TEs, 65th overall
PPR: 7th among TEs, 74th overall
Average Auction Value ($200 Budget): $7
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 4th | 156.2 | 4th | 9.8 |
| 2017 | 13th | 79.4 | 16th | 5.0 |
| 2016 | 15th | 83.2 | 16th | 6.4 |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 4th | 222.2 | 4th | 13.9 |
| 2017 | 13th | 132.4 | 16th | 8.3 |
| 2016 | 14th | 144.2 | 13th | 11.1 |
PLAYER USAGE
| Receptions | Receptions Per Game | Targets | Targets Per Game | |
| 2018 | 66 | 4.1 | 110 | 6.9 |
| 2017 | 53 | 3.3 | 86 | 5.4 |
| 2016 | 61 | 4.7 | 85 | 6.5 |
Overview: Ebron finally had the breakout season the Lions were counting on… the only problem for them was he did it as a Colt. He scored a whopping 14 touchdowns to go with 750 receiving yards. Touchdowns traditionally are an inconsistent area among all positions, and his numbers could certainly regress. However with Andrew Luck throwing him the rock and tight-end focused Frank Reich calling plays, Ebron is definitely in the top-five tight end discussion.
Strategy: Our Auction Value ($200 Budget): $0
The big argument against Ebron is touchdown regression, with Jack Doyle healed, and Parris Cambell joining the team. Of Andrew Luck’s 100 red zone passes in 2018, 21 were thrown at Ebron. This was the second-highest total for red zone passes in the league; only Patrick Mahomes had more. Ebron’s 21% share was fourth among tight ends, with only Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle getting a higher share. T.Y. Hilton had the next highest percentage of red zone targets on the Colts with 16%, and Nyheim Hines was third with just under 10%. So, Ebron is a clear favorite of Luck’s in the red zone (which we kind of already knew from his huge touchdown totals.) With the offense getting even better, it’s likely that they could be in the red zone even more times, and Ebron should benefit. I’m not saying he’s going to equal his 2018 totals, but he seems far safer than Evan Engram or O.J. Howard, who both have injury concerns. Ebron hasn’t missed a game in the past two seasons. I think he’s clearly all by himself in Tier 2 of tight ends and is worth a few extra bucks or a 6th round pick.
Best Case Scenario: Ebron increases his rapport with Luck and starts getting more work between the 20s, causing him to enter the Tier 1 Tight End tier with the big boys.
Worst Case Scenario: Wakes up, looks in the mirror, and remembers that he’s Eric Ebron, returns to his perennial disappointment ways.
