I feel quite a bit like a fraud, putting quarterbacks in my fantasy football top ten, only to call them potential busts just two days later. However, that is the case, as a good amount of fantasy prognostication includes weighing the upside of players. That isn’t that I don’t believe that these players could end up being worthy starters, but I think that there are some definite flaws in their fantasy football output that could have them as busts. There, that should shut up the haters. These are the three quarterbacks currently being drafted as starting quarterbacks that have the best chance of busting out of usefulness entirely.
Tom Brady (4.02, QB2)
Hear me out, the greatest quarterback of all time played extremely well in the Super Bowl, but there is too much swirling around the Patriots for me to feel good about taking him as the #2 quarterback off the board. He’s unlikely to crater, but he’s also extremely unlikely to return this value next year. He turns 41 in August, had a terrible December going into the playoffs, and he may be without his top weapon (Rob Gronkowski is mulling retirement). Brady wasn’t even the #2 quarterback this year, so why are people drafting him like he’s going to take another step forward? Oh, and the kiss with his kid was really weird.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (6.02, QB6)
In the QB sleepers piece, I touted Marcus Mariota’s Chicxulub-esque cratering in TD rate as a reason he would bounce back this season and well overproduce his draft stock. Deshaun Watson has the opposite problem going for him. Last season, 9.3% of his passes went for touchdowns. With Mariota, I compared it to his career average, which you can’t do with Watson. Instead, let’s check out historical trends: no player has a career rate higher than 9%, and only 2004 Peyton Manning has a touchdown rate over 9% for a whole season. Want more to worry about? His interception rate sate between Trevor Siemian and Brett Hundley. Woof, no thank you.
Andrew Luck (8.07, QB10)
Is this a joke? Are you havin’ a laugh, mate? Andrew Luck might need more surgery, and even if he does play next year, he currently has the body of a high school freshman. The shoulder is complicated and clearly something is still wrong with his. Even if he’s on the road to recovery, that is an extremely long and windy road (as he’s already shown). He also will be nearly two years removed from throwing a football in a real game by the time the season rolls around. Pass.