Fantasy Football: Start or Sit Jordy Nelson in Week Twelve?

There’s a mantra in fantasy football that says “Don’t Sit Your Studs.” The DSYS mentality is extremely prevalent, and useful, given most people tend to overthink matchups and end up benching guys they should have started. For example, some idiot last week told people to sit Keenan Allen and he went off. Luckily that idiot was forced into not listening to his own advice thanks to a Sterling Shepard migraine. This week, however, we take a look at a player who was drafted as a stud, top ten wide receiver. An injury to his quarterback has seen him fall apart recently, through no fault of his own. This week we ask the question: should we start or sit Jordy Nelson this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers?

This year has been two distinct seasons for Jordy Nelson, the half of his games with Aaron Rodgers, and the half without. With Aaron Rodgers, he’s averaging five catches on 7.6 targets. He had 58 yards per game, and the money stat: 1.2 touchdowns per game. Without Aaron Rodgers, it’s, uh… well it’s not been good for Jordy. No touchdowns. 5.25 target a game… but just 2.5 catches, which speaks to the quality of “targets” Brett Hundley is sending his way. His yardage, which was already somewhat low, has gone down to just 23 yards. That’s fewer than 70 feet per game, forget yards. Twenty running backs average more than 23 receiving yards a game this season, and fifty wide receivers do as well. It all adds up to just 4.8 full PPR points a game (2.3 standard). You can literally get that from any loser off the waiver wire. Brett Hundley is just not good, and it drags Jordy Nelson all the way down with him.

Forgetting that Jordy and Hundley aren’t good together, the matchup is extremely dire for even a functional QB-WR duo. The Steelers allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Granted, they’ve slipped a bit lately, as a broken play to Rishard Matthews to open the second half on Thursday Night Football demonstrated. They’ve given up three TDs to wide receivers in their last couple of games, and two hundred-yard contests in the same span. The loss of Mike Mitchell certainly didn’t help in that stretch, but he’s set to be back Sunday, all to crush the hopes and dreams of the Packers passing game.

Don’t Sit Your Studs is a smart mantra, it helps new fantasy football players from overthinking decisions and starting their players that shouldn’t be in their starting lineups over studly weekly starters. However, Jordy Nelson is demonstrably not a stud anymore, not without Aaron Rodgers. The anemic Packers passing game takes on a Steelers team that is one of the worst fantasy football matchups he could have. Stay away from Jordy Nelson, and if the Packers announce Rodgers won’t return, do the unthinkable: cut bait.

About Jeff Krisko

You can follow me on twitter, @jeffkrisko for the same lukewarm takes you read here.

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