Over one-third of the NFL season is in the books, and if your team has nobody on bye, is at full strength, and isn’t missing a key player, then bully for you. I am not mad at you at all. For the rest of us, I have three players available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues, with a player at each position available in at least 90% of leagues. Let’s hop in!
QUARTERBACK
Aaron Rodgers at Cincinnati (43% rostered)
Rodgers hasn’t had a good stretch of games, with his fantasy points falling in each of his last four contests. That coincides with the running game taking over, as Jaylen Warren has turned into a monster in the last four weeks. The last time he had a great fantasy day was week four against Cleveland, and the week before that, against Cincinnati, was another great fantasy day: he finished with 292 yards, three scores, and 23.96 fantasy points. The Bengals are going to throw all over the place against the Steelers, which means that the run game for Pittsburgh won’t have a chance to get going as the Steelers will need to throw to catch up. Rodgers is in a prime position to dink and dunk his way to a big fantasy day, as over the last five weeks, the Bengals allow the sixth-highest yards per target on passes that travel under fifteen yards, as well as the second-most yards after the catch per reception.
Jacoby Brissett versus L.A. Chargers (24% rostered)
Speaking of dinking & dunking your way to victory, the newest Raven Savior, Jacoby Brissett, is Bris-set up to have a nice, soft landing upon arrival in Baltimore. The Chargers allow the fifth-highest yards per pass attempt on passes under ten air yards, and Brissett throws under ten yards 68% of the time. This will allow for the Ravens’ weapons (and by that, I mean Zay Flowers) to take advantage of the Chargers’ defense’s tenth-highest yards-after-catch per reception ranking. Brissett won’t be comfortable playing with the lead, but he will be comfortable dropping back and slinging it as much as he can.
DEEP DIVE: J.J. McCarthy versus Washington (10% rostered) TNF SPECIAL
McCarthy hasn’t been “good” since his first torrid quarter with the Giants, but on a per-target basis, he’s been perfectly cromulent. Since he took over, he ranks tenth in the league in yards per pass attempt, and ninth in completion percentage. He has no touchdowns, but also zero picks. The Giants have reined him in a bit, and he should be able to take advantage of this matchup against the Commanders on TNF. The Commies allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and that includes the corpse of Matthew Stafford and Tanner McKee failing against them in the last two weeks.
RUNNING BACKS
Audric Estimé versus Carolina (38% rostered)
The Carolina Panthers allow the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs and allow the second-most fantasy points per opportunity, as well as the second-most fantasy points rushing to running backs. So that is to say: the run defense, it is quite bad. Estimé is set to get one more week as the lead back in New Orleans, with Travis Etienne not quite ready to make it back. He took full advantage of a similar situation last week, where he ran the ball 15 times for 72 yards and a score. With this one being a high over/under and defense-optional in the dome, it could be a two-touchdown day for Estimé.
Kaelon Black at Dallas (34% rostered)
Black has double-digit touches in back-to-back games, and the 49ers offense is humming after blowing out the Raiders last week. While he had to spell CMC against Atlanta due to an injury, the 49ers rotated him in during the blowout, with Jordan James getting carries when the game was out of hand. Over the last two weeks, he has 23 carries for 133 yards and a score, so he provides a nice floor. The Cowboys are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per opportunity to running backs, with the fourth-highest yards per carry and the fourth-most touchdowns allowed to running backs this season.
DEEP DIVE: Seth McGowan versus Miami (10% rostered)
With Jonathan Taylor staying on the Colts, McGowan’s roster rate has cratered in the last week or so. However, the Colts traded away both Josh Downs and Keenan Allen, leaving McGowan as one of the better options on the Colts. While he won’t usurp Jonathan Taylor, it’s possible that he gets more touches; this one is ultimately a long shot in a good matchup. The Dolphins are also circling the drain and allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Williams at N.Y. Giants (27% rostered) TNF SPECIAL
Williams has been a big beneficiary of the Terry McLaurin injury, jumping up to 13 targets in the last two weeks. He’s also been on the field a lot more, topping 82% of snaps in each of the last two games, after not topping 69% in any game this year. His routes have also gone up, with about 80% route participation in the last two weeks. That all points to a receiver who is getting ramped up in the offense (due to necessity). He’s dropped into an underneath role, with an average depth of target under ten in his increased role. The Giants are good against underneath receivers, allowing the third-lowest yards per target underneath ten yards.
Konata Mumpfield at Arizona (10% rostered)
Mumpfield is probably the wide receiver to most benefit from the Puka Nacua injury, mostly because Tutu Atwell is a serious threat and Matthew Stafford’s arm is shot. He hasn’t had many opportunities to produce this season, as he has just one game with over three targets, and he finished that game with 93 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals are one of the “circling the drain” teams, as their whole offense was traded or went on IR in the last month or so, so Carson Beck and the offense aren’t likely to put up much of a threat. That means a lot of offensive snaps for the Rams, and a chance to score (the Cardinals have given up 19 passing touchdowns, the second-most in the NFL).
DEEP DIVE: Laquon Treadwell versus Miami (1% rostered)
This one doesn’t have much to it; the Colts traded every other NFL wide receiver on the roster, and that means that there is more target volume up for grabs. Treadwell has a good chance to take advantage of that target vacuum and turn into a poor man’s version of Keenan Allen.
TIGHT ENDS
Chig Okonkwo at N.Y. Giants (24% rostered)
Don’t look now, but Chig Okonkwo has finished as a top-twelve TE in two of his last three games and has double-digit PPR points in three of his last four, with the Zack Baun-led Eagles front (who allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends) stymying him. The Giants aren’t exactly a beaucoup matchup, either, unfortunately, as they allow the eleventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. That having been said, every tight end who had more than two targets against them finished with at least 9 PPR points, so you’re looking at a good floor day with Okonkwo, with a chance at a touchdown.
AJ Barner at Las Vegas (11% rostered)
Barner went yard twice last week, scoring a receiving and a rushing touchdown. As of writing this, the Seahawks still aren’t sure who their quarterback will be in week ten (Drew Lock or Jalen Milroe), but Barner is their second-best passing game option. The Raiders will put Fernando Mendoza on the field for his first action, meaning a lot of short fields caused by the opportunistic Seahawks defense, and easy scores for the Seahawks offense. The Raiders are a top-five matchup this season, allowing at least 9 PPR points to a tight end nine times this year.
DEEP DIVE: Colby Parkinson Arizona (2% rostered)
Without Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, the Rams are left turning back to their tight ends. And, to be honest, I’m done worrying about Tyler Higbee’s racist self. Parkinson has had a rough go of it, injury-wise, in the last month or so, but he still managed at least four targets in his last three games, getting six in two of three games. The Cardinals are a defensive sieve, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends on the year. This one is going to be a bloodbath, and Parkinson will benefit greatly from that.
