Things don’t always go how you want. And in the last week, the Eagles learned that more than anyone. They lost Hall of Famer Lane Johnson to retirement, Saquon Barkley to a thigh injury, Tank Bigsby to the IR, Makai Lemon and DeVonta Smith (potentially) to a couple more hamstring injuries, and Big Dom to a RICO charge? No, that last one isn’t right. Oh also, I got COVID on Sunday, and I couldn’t think straight until about 10 AM on Thursday, which is why we got no cut list nor a pre-TNF sleepers list. Better late than never, they say, and with the byes upon us, it’s time to figure out some one-week starters for our teams, guys we could snag off the waiver wire to make our opponents wonder just what the hell happened.
As always, we highlight a player at each of the Big Four fantasy football positions available in at least 50% of leagues, with a third player at each position representing a deep shot, a guy available in at least 90% of leagues.
QUARTERBACK SLEEPERS
Jacoby Brissett versus Detroit (49% rostered)
This one will probably tick over 50% as people realize that they have to set their rosters this weekend, but this is the nuts matchup for Brissett on Sunday. The Lions allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season because they allow the most fantasy points to tight ends (by a wide margin), and since Brissett hyper-targets his tight end, that is a match made in heaven. If you also kick in that this game has the highest over-under, and the Lions & Cardinals have allowed the most and third-most points over the last three weeks, you have a shootout on your hands. Brissett will lean on McBride & Michael Wilson, who he recently remembered is his WR1. Going back to last season, Brissett targeted them both 8+ times in eight games, and in those games, he averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game (in four-point per passing touchdown leagues), which was QB7 last season.
Aaron Rodgers versus Indianapolis (24% rostered)
Don’t look now, but Aaron Rodgers has 39 or more pass attempts in three of four games this season, and ranks seventh in dropbacks per game this year, with 42. Two primo matchups in back-to-back weeks have Rodgers topping 290 yards and three scores in each of his last two games, and a lot of this comes from targeting Rome Wilson over Michael Pittman. With no Pittman this week, Rodgers will have no choice but to break the pact he made with Satan Himself and give Wilson more than six targets, and it should work out well for both Rodgers and Wilson. The Colts are one of the best passing matchups in the league right now, giving up over 300 total yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game to quarterbacks on the season, making them the sixth-best matchup this week.
Geno Smith versus Cleveland (9% rostered)
Geno Smith goes as his matchup goes, and this is a pretty good matchup for Smith. He has two games against top-ten defenses by fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. In those games, he has 334 total passing yards and just one touchdown (across two games). When he plays a gimme defense, like the Detroit Lions two weeks ago, he “balls out,” as the kids say. He finished that game with 321 passing yards and three touchdowns. Fast forward to this weekend against Cleveland, who are currently a top-ten matchup in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They allowed Trevor Lawrence four passing touchdowns in week one, and Aaron Rodgers those three touchdowns last week. However, they are not a slam dunk play, as they held Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young to a combined two touchdowns. But it can’t go as poorly for Geno as it did last week, and this is still just a two-quarterback league recommendation.
RUNNING BACK SLEEPERS
Brian Robinson versus Baltimore (47% rostered)
I recommended Brian Robinson last week, and it worked spectacularly, so we are running it back. “The Other B. Robinson Jr. (RB – ATL)” is not only reductive of his skills, but also a really clunky nickname to try to say aloud. While the other B-Rob stomped the Saints into oblivion last weekend, this B-Rob was also a part of the Turbo Team, turning fifteen touches into 67 yards and three scores. While I don’t expect that to happen this week, I do expect a fourth-straight week of double-digit touches for Robinson, as the Atlanta run game is clicking on all cylinders right now, with both Robinsons dominating team opportunities en route to huge offensive totals. The Ravens aren’t quite the pushover the Saints were, but they’ve given up 100+ yards to two backs this year, and a touchdown to a third.
Keaton Mitchell versus Denver (40% rostered)
Mitchell finished last week with fifteen touches, which led the Chargers’ backfield. While Omarion Hampton stans are in shambles, Keaton Mitchell drafters are rejoicing. He better matches the De’Von Achane mold that Mike McDaniel was able to utilize to churn out fantasy points in Miami. This game will probably be a messy affair, as the Broncos will not have Patrick Surtain or Riley Moss (or Pat Bryant), and they just turned offensive playcalling duties back over to Sean Payton; the Chargers are, of course, perpetually and mercilessly, the Chargers. I foresee (what a preposterous word, I “guess that there will be”) a lot of desperation plays from L.A., which will include a good amount of Keaton Mitchell catching the ball out of the backfield. That has been a potent play against the Broncos this season, as they allow the sixth-most receptions per game to running backs, and the third-most receiving yards to the position.
George Holani versus San Francisco (10% rostered)
Like Mitchell, this is a lot of “targeting a defense that gives up receptions to running backs and scam those PPR points.” The 49ers gave up ten catches to RJ Harvey last week out of the backfield, which isn’t surprising, as they lead the NFL in running back receptions and receiving yards allowed. But the part you might doubt is the player. Over the last two weeks, George Holani suddenly is a crucial component of the Seahawks’ passing game, at least by the numbers. In the last two games, he has 21 routes and six targets. That comes out to a .286 targets-per-route run, which is beyond elite. With JAG incarnate Emanuel Wilson ahead of him, and Operation: Joe Mixon aborting prematurely, the Seahawks don’t have much of a choice but to turn to lean into him a bit more, which builds his PPR scam value.
WIDE RECEIVER SLEEPERS
Keon Coleman at L.A. Rams (33% rostered)
People truly aren’t buying the Keonaissance, probably because he hasn’t put together back-to-back good games yet this season, but that is a matter of volume. Coleman has more than two targets in a game twice this year, and in those two games, he has twelve catches, 179 yards, and a touchdown. Both games came following D.J. Moore’s (lingering) AC joint sprain in week two, which led to Coleman getting a 68% route share in both of his two big games. In the draft and post-draft process, I fell hook, line, and sinker for Coleman, so I am willing to buy back in. The Rams spent a ton on their defensive backfield this offseason, and it is showing some results, with no wide receiver getting more than 50 yards against them this season (never mind the 49ers splitting 145+ yards and 3 touchdowns nearly perfectly in thirds), so it might be an uphill battle. But this one is set to be one of the week’s shootouts, and if you’re desperate, then this is a way to get a part of that shootout.
Roman Wilson versus Indianapolis (18% rostered)
Wilson has six targets in each of the first four games this season, and his devilishly good stat line is about to get a bump, as the Steelers need him for quite a bit more than that this weekend. Michael Pittman won’t play in this one, and Wilson will move up to WR2 against this woeful pass defense. As WR3, Wilson has 14 receptions, 188 yards, and two touchdowns across four games, with six catches for 134 yards and a score in the last two weeks. The Rodgers-to-Wilson connection is heating up, and the Pittman injury could kick it into full overdrive. The Colts defense gives up the twelfth-most fantasy points to wide receivers on the season, but five wide receivers have at least 11.7 fantasy points against them this year. Unfortunately for the Colts, they’ve given up an explosive catch (20+ yard reception, Wilson’s bread and butter) on 20.7% of their receptions this year, which ranks fifth in the league.
Isaac TeSlaa at Arizona (4% rostered)
TeSlaa had a mini-breakout last week, finishing with four catches for 95 yards on eight targets. He’s a boom-bust play because he’s always been a boom-bust player, but he has five or more targets in two of his last three games, and given that his average depth of target comes 15.93 yards downfield, five targets are all that he could need. This one is going to be a hideous shootout (if you like defense, but it will be glorious for us) as it has the highest over-under of the weekend, and both defenses are currently bottom-three in the league (as mentioned in the Brissett portion of this). TeSlaa is a dirt-cheap way to get a part of this offense.
Careful starting him, though, because we all know that a TeSlaa could explode in your face at any moment.
TIGHT END SLEEPERS
Kenyon Sadiq versus Cleveland (45% rostered)
Let’s forget that he had a big ol’ zero last week; the Bears were just a python slowly draining the Jets’ life with long, drawn-out drives. You can’t do much when you have the ball for just over seventeen minutes. Sadiq goose-egged his fantasy managers in week four, but he finished with a 26.7% target share and a 0.33 target per route run, which are both elite for tight ends. His targets just… weren’t really catchable, with only one of his four targets graded as such. So, better days are on the horizon for Sadiq, who already carries elite numbers at 2.1 yards per route run (sixth) and 0.25 targets per route run (ninth), and a 16.7% explosive reception rate (thirteenth). He’s on the verge of a breakout, and the Cleveland Browns, who allow the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Mike Gesicki at Miami (26% rostered)
Zero tight ends have four top-twelve finishes so far this season, and only three have three top-twelve finishes: Juwan Johnson, George Kittle, Trey McBride, and Mike Gesicki. Gesicki has touchdowns in three of his four games, but I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. With Tee Higgins nursing an adductor injury, and Ja’Marr Chase battling the concussion protocol, the Bengals are likely to be without at least one of their top-two passing game weapons. In steps Gesicki, who performs whenever the Bengals call on him; they just don’t call on him that much. This Dolphins matchup is highly exploitable for “Gridsicki” or “Goodsicki,” as folks call him. They give up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, and gave up thirteen catches for 199 yards to T.J. Hockenson last week. This marked the third straight week that a tight end had at least 13.9 PPR points against them.
Michael Mayer at New England (10% rostered)
Mayer is eighth in the league in routes per game, and eleventh in targets per game. He’s also quietly TE14 on the season thanks to a #15 route win rate and a renewed focus on the tight ends in Las Vegas. This is a true breakout campaign for Mayer, who is running 75% of routes this season, compared to just under 50% for his career, to go along with a 16% target share, which sits at about 10% in his career. The 75% route rate is especially great, considering he and Brock Bowers are the only players on the team with at least a 75% route run rate, and those two & Tre Tucker (73.7%) and Ashton Jeanty (61.8%), are the only ones who have run over 50% of routes. This is a true two-tight end offense, and you can still get in on the ground floor of a brewing Michael Mayer breakout.
