Three weeks are in the books, and if you don’t need to peruse this article for a player, then congratulations; you’ve escaped the trials and tribulations of the early NFL fantasy season. Unfortunately, we aren’t so lucky, and we might need some help. Below I have two players at each position available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues, with a long shot available in at least 90% of leagues.
QUARTERBACKS
Sam Darnold versus L.A. Chargers (44% rostered)
Darnold returned to the lineup last week, and while the Seahawks lost, the passing game won. Darnold finished with 379 passing yards and four touchdowns, throwing the ball 45 times. The Seahawks will likely lean on the passing game in this one, after conceding that their backfield is currently a three-way split. The Chargers are the cure for what ails you at this point, and are ninth in EPA per dropback as well as fifth in expected fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. The Seahawks likely aren’t chasing points in this one, so four touchdowns aren’t in the cards, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba is currently averaging two receiving touchdowns per game, so that’s a good floor for Darnold this week.
Jacoby Brissett at N.Y. Giants (12% rostered)
The Cardinals got back to basics against the 49ers, getting down early in the game and making it respectable in the second half. This is the formula that Brissett rode to glory last season, and it ended with him getting three total touchdowns last week against the 49ers. For his part, Brissett has 16.5 or more fantasy points in two of three games this season, with his game against Seattle as the only hiccup. The Giants are not quite the Seahawks this season, and that was before Brian Burns tore his ACL. They are currently pressuring quarterbacks at the second-lowest rate (22.9%), and only the sackless Dolphins convert pressures to sackgs at a worse rate (4.2%). Like the Chargers above, they are top-eight in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s expected fantasy points allowed ranking.
Long Shot: Marcus Mariota versus Indianapolis (in London)
Mariota came out to spell Jayden Daniels and punched the Seahawks in the mouth en route to a 33-31 victory. He finished with only 194 total yards, but his four touchdowns on 31 pass attempts against a top-five pass defense bode well as he takes on a bottom-five pass defense in the Indianapolis Colts. Indy is fifth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and are just league average in generating pressure. Mariota makes for a good deep league play, as only the dysfunctional Houston passing game failed to get their quarterback at least 24 fantasy points against the Colts this season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Wan’Dale Robinson at Baltimore (49% rostered)
“Wan’Daddy” finally broke out last week, catching seven balls for 57 yards and a touchdown. But his eleven targets intrigue me more. This is the second time in three games that he has had at least six targets, and that will bode well for him this week, especially given his alignment in the Titans’ offense. Robinson runs 78% of his routes out of the slot, which is where the Ravens are particularly vulnerable. They are sixth in targets to the slot, fifth in yards, second in catches and touchdowns, and most importantly: second in fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This is the best slot player matchup of the week this side of Antonio Williams (who only has eleven targets through three games).
Kalif Raymond versus N.Y. Jets (23% rostered)
You can only fight city hall for so long, and at this point, I am going to lean into the Kalif Raymond sickness. Through three games, he is WR12, posting 19 receptions for 214 yards and a touchdown through three games. He’s currently second among the Bears’ wide receivers in route participation, second in target share, first in yards per route run, and second in targets per route run. He leads the team with 30% of their yardage, and has the highest yards per target on the team (barely scraping by Rome Odunze). He’s also the best in the position group after the catch, posting 5.11 yards after catch per reception. He’s going to fall apart eventually, but you have to ride the hot hand while you can. And who knows, maybe he won’t fall apart?
Long Shot: Mack Hollins at Buffalo (5% rostered)
Someone has to be WR1 in New England without A.J. Brown, and early returns are that it is Mack Hollins. He leads the wide receivers in snap share by a wide margin (8% higher than Romeo Doubs), and he has three more targets than Pop Douglas, who is second on the team. Doubs is the air yards eater, but Hollins is getting the “alpha” receiver range (11.8 yards downfield), whereas Doubs gets the ball 17+ yards downfield. So, that makes Hollins the more reliable plug-and-play guy. The Bills are beatable in the Mack Hollins range, as they allow the most yards and catches per game on the season on wide receiver passes that travel between 10-19 yards downfield.
RUNNING BACKS
Braelon Allen at Chicago (45% rostered)
Maybe folks didn’t get the memo? Braelon Allen will be the lead back for Gang Green this Sunday as they travel to Chicago to take on the Fightin’ Keenums. Braelon hasn’t had a lot of opportunities yet this season as he rotated in behind the now-injured Breece Hall, but he’s top-20 in success rate and missed tackles forced per rush attempt this year, which means that he will keep the Jets on schedule, making it unlikely that Frank Reich turns to other backs in this rotation. The Bears “stopped” the Eagles’ dysfunctional running game last week, but they allowed double-digit fantasy points to both Aaron Jones and Chuba Hubbard in the first two weeks of the season.
Brian Robinson at New Orleans (25% rostered)
Brian Robinson is quietly averaging double-digit touches this season, and has 50+ rushing yards in each of the last two games, punching in a touchdown against the Packers on Thursday Night Football. This week, the Falcons have yet another primetime game, and ATL’s change of pace back will once again produce. The Saints are one of the better run defenses to attack this season, as they allow the third-most fantasy points to running backs on the ground, allowing 4.75 yards per carry and 1.3 touchdowns per game. Robinson will be the very short side of the platoon, but he will get enough to not hurt you, at least.
Long Shot: Raheim “Rocket” Sanders versus Pittsburgh (2% rostered)
Since I write this on Wednesday now, and not on Friday, we have our first Thursday Night Special of the entire article’s history. Rocket Sanders has 3+ targets in two-of-three games this season, and finished with 9.1 PPR points last week on five touches. The Steelers are twelfth in fantasy points per game to running backs, but the change of pace back for Cleveland will feast against the Steelers’ team that is top-ten in yards per target allowed to running backs, and is tenth in receiving yards per game to the position despite allowing just one receiving touchdown to running backs this season.
TIGHT ENDS
Kenyon Sadiq at Chicago (36% rostered)
The Bears are, on paper, strong against tight ends. However, they are strong against tight ends because they let wide receivers style all over them. They also haven’t played the best tight ends in the league, as they took on the split Tommy Tremble/Darren Waller tight end room, T.J. Hockenson, and Johnny Mundt/a freshly off the couch Zach Ertz. Sadiq is the best receiving tight end that they’ve played this season, and he just went off against the Lions last week. He plays more like a wide receiver than a tight end, so he should flip the script on the Bears this week, building on his seventh-ranked yards per route run and current TE10 ranking.
Darren Waller versus Detroit (21% rostered)
I know I just called Darren Waller “not the best tight end in the league,” but you simply must play any tight end going up against the Lions. This season, they’ve allowed six touchdowns to tight ends in just three games. Waller’s targets, yards, and catches have crept up over the last three weeks, culminating in a 5/51 line on eight targets last week. It appears coming out of retirement last season was smart for Waller, as he remains one of the more productive tight ends, with the eighth-most yards per target, as the TE12 so far this season.
Long Shot: Cade Otton versus Green Bay (2% rostered)
I regret to inform you all that Cade Otton is tenth in the NFL in tight end targets, with 17 targets through three games, and six per game in each of the last two. He is a volume play, and you hope that the rookie Jalon Daniels looks for a release valve at tight end. Since Daniels is a running quarterback, those dump-offs may not come, but it’s not a good week for deep league tight ends. As for the opponent, you are hoping for another touchdown, as the Packers have allowed a touchdown to tight ends in two of their three games this season.
