To paraphrase Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, “week one was craaaazzzyyy.” The Saints almost knocked off the Lions, the Bears dropped a muke on the Panthers, and the Bengals defense might be good? Week one had plenty to worry about, so let’s answer some pressing questions about our valuable fantasy football assets after the first week of NFL action.
Should We Bench Drake London & Kyle Pitts Until Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Return?
Things went poorly for the Falcons in their first game of the season, especially on offense. Ostensibly, Cooper Rush went 12/22/143 passing, with a touchdown and two interceptions. However, the literal majority of those yards came from dumpoffs to Bijan Robinson, who finished with 90 yards (mostly on catch-and-runs) on ten targets. That leaves, if you can do the math: 53 passing yards on 12 targets that went to the rest of the team. Unfortunately for managers who drafted them, Drake London and Kyle Pitts combined for two catches for 29 yards on five targets. Even more unfortunate for Kyle Pitts managers: Drake London caught two passes for 29 yards.
The Steelers are not a good pass defense, at least not right now; not with Joey Porter Jr. not playing. They get no reprieve next week as they take on the Green Bay Packers. As I write this, they are currently taking on Carson Wentz after Kyler Murray left with a concussion; it feels a lot like watching Cooper Rush today, but without a Bijan Robinson. The Saints are on the docket after that, but since I am not a doctor, I could not tell you who is starting for the Falcons in that game.
But, I can tell you this: I want no part of Kyle Pitts next week, or any week without Tua or Penix under center. I was already out on Pitts, as his high end-of-season rank was mostly due to a massive game against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football (without Drake London). As for London, you have to start him in three-wide receiver leagues next week, but I could definitely see a situation where you are benching him in 2WR leagues. That having been said, given what you spent on him, it might already be getting too cute to bench him next week.
Is David Montgomery a Must-Start Running Back? Was Woody Marks a Wasted Pick?
David Montgomery started his Houston Texans’ career with a bang, scoring three touchdowns in his debut for the Texans as they fell to the Buffalo Bills. He chipped in 20 carries for 60 yards, and three catches for 19 yards. All of this, this whole thing (except the loss): this was the thesis of the David Montgomery pick.
You took David Montgomery because the Houston Texans pick a bell cow and ride him into the ground. It was Joe Mixon until it was Woody Marks (he averaged 16+ touches per game as a starter last year), and now it is Montgomery. While you certainly can’t expect three touchdowns, the 23 touches are incredibly encouraging, as is getting three cracks at the goal line on his first touchdown. While I don’t expect Montgomery to get three touchdowns every game, he is off to a great start for Houston. His touch volume will likely decrease, as the Texans ran 77 plays in this one, 13 more plays than they ran last season. However, he should still get the lion’s share of the carries and targets out of the backfield, and the goal line usage is more than encouraging.
His backup, at least for now, is a different story. Woody Marks finished this one with ten touches for forty yards, which is approximately, give or take, more or less, exactly four yards per touch. Neither of these statistics are encouraging, nor is the fact that just one of these opportunities were targets. However, do I think that he is a wasted pick? Absolutely not. This game was game-scripted to be a slugfest, with C.J. Stroud dropping back 43 times this game, after averaging just under 28 dropbacks last season. That’s highly unusual, and speaks to the nature of the game.
In a typical game, the Texans likely run the ball a lot more than they did, and that means a lot more Woody Marks. Unfortunately, he was game-scripted out of this one. Double unfortunately, I can’t feel good about starting him next week, as the Texans have another potential shootout on their hands as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals.
So, for now, I would call David Montgomery a must-start, and I would file Woody Marks away for week two, but bring him back out in week three against the Colts, which should be a much better indication of how the Texans’ offense will “normally” work.
Was The Report of Bucky Irving’s Death an Exaggeration?
This offseason, many (myself included) were exceptionally worried about how Bucky Irving would produce this season. Not in a “how will he do?” way, but in a “how will he get enough fantasy points to matter?” way. He seemed hemmed in by Kenneth Gainwell getting passing downs, and Sean Tucker getting the touches inside the 20s. Well, there was no Sean Tucker this week, and seemingly, no Kenny Gainwell to speak of.
Bucky Irving finished the game with 35 snaps to 26 for Gainwell, but that wasn’t all; every other opportunity metric tilted towards Irving, including one surprising one. Bucky finished with 22 routes, seven targets, and eight carries, while Gainwell ran only thirteen routes and finished with one target and five carries. The routes are a huge development for Bucky Irving, because those routes were where Gainwell was supposed to make hay this season, and where he was supposed to take from Irving. Instead, Irving dominated the routes run, and left Gainwell with almost nothing to do while Irving finished with 93 total yards and a touchdown. The touchdown, thankfully, came from well outside the five-yard line, so we had no chance to see a Gainwell potentially steal a goal-line carry from Bucky.
But, ultimately, early returns were good for Irving, and it’s looking as though he is back to his pre-injury (1800+ yard pace) form. If you were able to buy in on Irving despite Chicken Littles like me saying the sky is falling, then congratulations. Early results are good.
