The Green Bay Packers offense is in flux this season. Last year’s first-rounder, Matthew Golden, failed to land in his rookie year. Their best player on offense, Tucker Kraft, is coming off of a knee injury, and their #1 running back was arrested for so many domestic violence charges that they had bullet points. They also gave nine figures to Christian Watson while moving on from Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs. There’s a lot to be said about the Packers’ offense, and hopefully some of it is good. Let’s take a look at the 2026 Green Bay Packers’ fantasy football sleeper, undervalued, and overvalued players!
Sleeper: Jayden Reed, Wide Receiver (WR46, Pick 107 OVR)
I’ve never really been in on Jayden Reed in the past because the idea of Reed always outstripped the production. This is usually because Matt LaFleur was critically dependent on rotating receivers: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks all had between 12% and 20% target share last season, with nobody topping Christian Watson’s 19.9% on the team. Now, the last two guys (Doubs and Wicks) are gone, without anybody to replace them in the passing game. This is part of LaFleur admitting that he mixed-and-matched at receiver way too much in the past, and attempting to simplify the passing game down to Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Matthew Golden.
Now, take a look at those three names and you see: oft-injured, flashed in the past, and hurtling toward first-round bust. That makes a relatively direct path for Jayden Reed to break out this season. In 2025, injuries kept Reed to a part-time role in seven games, but the metrics were there for him following the 2024 season (these stats are among players with at least 300 routes run). He ran out of the slot at the seventh-highest rate, was twelfth in catch rate, fourth in yards per target, tenth in yards after the catch per reception, and seventh in contested catch rate. It’s a nice profile for a receiver to have: catch the hard ones, and take the easy ones a long way after the catch. With both Golden and Watson playing out wide (38.9% slot rate and 29.7% slot rate, respectively) and Matt LaFleur saying he would go back to basics, I see an increased role for Golden in 2026.
Namely, I see an increased 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) usage this season, which will get Reed more routes: the Packers ran 11 personnel at the twelfth-lowest rate last season (54%) but had the fourth-highest EPA on these plays.
Overvalued: Christian Watson, Wide Receiver (WR29, Pick 62 OVR)
If Christian Watson can stay healthy, then this might be a good pick! Unfortunately, Watson has missed multiple games in every season of his career and had a medically relevant difference in his thighs, which could possibly, and call me crazy, be the reason why he has so many hamstring issues. Last season, Watson finished with ten games played, and finished top-thirty in four of them. The thing about those four games, though: he was WR12, WR6, WR6, and WR5. So, he’s the ultimate boom-bust WR3 play in fantasy football leagues.
Unfortunately, he’s going at a price range that I cannot co-sign for that kind of profile (beginning of the sixth round). He screams being a mid-round pick, but he’s going when you’re still trying to fill out your rock-solid players in your draft. Other oft-injured players are going after him that offer more intriguing upside (Ricky Pearsall) and players offering more consistency (Wan’Dale Robinson), and there are even better boom-bust options going after him (Brian Thomas Jr.) and “if he could just put it all together” upside cases (Marvin Harrison Jr.). His ADP tops a list of more interesting players, and as such, I’m just not making that click.
Undervalued: Tucker Kraft, Tight End (TE5, Pick 73 OVR)
Tucker Kraft is an elite tight end in the NFL and produced exceptionally well last year before his ACL injury in November. The latest reports are that he is likely to start training camp on the PUP, but that everyone plans for him to be back in week one without any sort of restrictions. So, we have that out of the way.
played in seven games last season before getting hurt in the first half of the Packers’ week nine game, so any statistics that I give you are going to exclude that game, and any rankings are as of week eight, his last fully healthy game.
Tucker Kraft ranked eleventh in route participation last season, running a route on 73.3% of dropbacks. He also ranked first in yards per target (12.03), second in yards per route run (2.71, behind Dalton Kincaid), first in yards per reception, and his 26.1% of team receiving yardage trailed only Trey McBride. Wildly enough, he created all this production on the 23rd-highest aDOT (4.5, tied with Evan Engram and Jake Ferguson).
He wasn’t targeted downfield like a Colston Loveland; he was targeted short, and then ran for the rest. Tucker Kraft was the YAC GOD in 2025, ranking first at the position (11.13 yards after catch per reception, nearly three full yards ahead of Tyler Warren, who ranked second, with 8.16 yards per target). The gap between Warren and Kraft was slightly bigger than the gap between Kraft and the #13 TE in YAC/REC, David Njoku.
This is because you simply could not bring down Kraft, who also ranked first in yards after contact per reception, at 3.83, which was also a huge gap over #2, Oronde Gadsden (2.52), and first in missed tackles forced per reception (0.30), which was first, just ahead of Chig Okonkwo. At the time of his injury, Kraft ranked ninth in catches, third in yards, and second in touchdowns, with a 30/469/6 line. He did this while having a bye week, and his 67 yards per game led the position.
So, we see a tight end who was elite at everything when he went down with injury, on a team that let two pass catchers (Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks) leave, an injury-prone WR1, a heretofore gadget WR2, and a potential round one bust WR3, and whose running back is a piece of shit with no depth behind him.
I ask you, unironically: who is stopping Tucker Kraft (do not say Jordan Love)?
