Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and losing my retirement $10 at a time if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
4-0 last week, time to celebrate (in moderation). I’ve popped one of the Key Lime LaCroix that I’ve been storing in the basement for this special occasion, and I’ve been hard at work looking to Week 6 for another chance to break even and get back into it. This article could run early, or late, it doesn’t matter. I really like our slate this week.
Detroit -3 (-112, DraftKings)
Dallas has a decimated defensive line, while the Lions are returning Frank Ragnow (supposedly). Dallas is a shell of its former self, with injuries and a stunning lack of depth firmly leaving them on the outside looking in this year. The Lions are one of the few teams in the league who can beat you in a number of different ways, and this week I think they run the air out of the ball, while their stifling run defense forces Dak into a couple of picks. I believe Detroit takes this one by a touchdown.
Tampa Bay -3.5 (-105, Caesar’s)
Tampa Bay is coming into this division matchup with a few advantages, most of which revolve around Spencer Rattler getting the start instead of Derek Carr. The Saints still have Marshon Lattimore to deal with their Mike Evans problem, but Chris Godwin is playing out of his mind this year and the emergence of Bucky Irving has made the Bucs run game something opposing coaches have to acknowledge the existence of at least. If the Bucs can go up a touchdown early and force Klint Kubiak to abandon the run, this could get ugly.
LA Chargers/Denver Broncos UNDER 35.5 (-110, BetMGM)
SPEAKING OF UGLY, holy shit this game. We’re reaching levels of bad taste previously unseen, betting the under for a game at this low a price. However, we’ve never seen two offenses this bad BY DESIGN go against each other, at least in recent memory. Harbaugh and Payton are fighting two parallel holy wars on the concept of offensive football, and here they intersect. Imagine the Crusades, but being fought by two NFL head coaches that wouldn’t surprise many if they were found on the Epstein flight logs. I fell asleep twice writing this paragraph. I’m sorry, Chargers fans.
Player Prop: Jayden Reed OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-114, Fanduel)
It’s only Wednesday, and I’m already sick of how much I’m locked into Jayden Reed this week. Per the FantasyPoints Data Suite, Reed has the 7th best matchup of the week, based on coverage schemes alone. The Cardinals play cover 3 and cover 4 at top-10 rates this season, and Reed averages 4.87 yards per route run against those coverages across his 63 routes. Overall, he’s second in the league in yards per route run (one of four players to be above 3.00), one of eight WRs with a 12+ yards per target average, and second in yards per target over expected at +7.4. Arizona’s slot cornerback Kei’Trel Clark is allowing the most targets per route run this season (.25). If you don’t really want to spend the hours figuring out what the hell all these stats mean, they mean Jayden Reed is going to rip it up this weekend and you should get this line as early as possible.
Last Week: 4-0
Year to Date: 9-11 (never forget)
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Tony Martin. Author. Dreamweaver. Visionary, plus actor. He writes for Football Absurdity and co-hosts the THfantaC Podcast. Bet along at: https://signupexpert.com/thfantac
