Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
Get shit on, Tony. As we started climbing back towards respectability and human decency, the fates conspired to wreck us. Zack Moss hit his over and then lost it on a run for negative yards on his last carry of the game. The process being right doesn’t matter when we’re talking money. So, I retreated back to the lab to figure out a way to bring us closer to being .500. This article is a lot of fun for me to write, so to prevent myself from being forever known as the 2024 Mark Andrews of Football Absurdity, I need to rally.
Minnesota -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Minnesota is somehow the best team in football, and this season I’ve worked really hard on adjusting when my priors turn out to be incorrect- I can’t think of anything I’ve been more wrong about than the Vikings’ undefeated start. While I do think we’re due for a bit of a regression to the mean, we can’t discount what they’ve done so far. Conversely, the Jets are (shockingly) underperforming, and in a neutral site, I don’t think they can keep up with Minnesota. Sam Darnold gets all the kudos so far this year (and rightfully so), but I think Minnesota’s defense wins them this one.
Baltimore -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
This line is way too low for a superior team, divisional matchup or not. While it sucks with the amount of exposure I have to Mark Andrews, I have to give Baltimore credit for solid game-planning on offense. They have enough weapons to beat you in several different ways, and they’ve shown it, even without Andrews/Flowers really returning to the form we’ve seen them in previously. Cincy is a mess, and while I think they turn it around, I don’t think this one is where the streak begins.
Green Bay -3 (-115, Fanduel)
Jordan Love has shown us that it truly doesn’t matter who his wide receivers are, he’s going to be chucking that shit all over the field. The loss of a team’s WR1 and WR2 tends to hurt an offense (see: the Rams), but in Green Bay, it’s next man up. Jayden Reed remains a dawg, Wicks has shown flashes of elite potential, and if Green Bay’s line can hold up this one has blowout potential.
Player Prop: Brian Thomas Jr OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards (-113, Fanduel)
The BTJ killer! This line is influenced by two different things: the Colts using Cover 3 at the highest rate in the league, and how Jacksonville has historically approached that coverage. Brian Thomas Jr is 14th in the league in fantasy points per route run against Cover 3, while averaging almost 4 full yards per route run against that coverage. We watched Calvin Ridley look somewhat relevant in this matchup last year because the Jaguars love to attack Cover 3 deep. Brian Thomas Jr is a beast on the deep ball, to sweeten the pot. I love this line so much and can’t wait to see it all shake out on Sunday.
Last Week: 1-3
Total: 5-11
