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Okay okay okay okay, we’re straightening the ship. After starting the year 1-7, we’re working on it and went 3-1 last week (hate you, Minnesota). We are no longer rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, but we’re still treading water and Kate Winslet is eyeing the space on the driftwood to see if we’re worth keeping around. A perfect week might get us closer to sneaking onto the platform. Another bad week, and it’s been a pleasure playing with you gentlemen.
Houston -6.5 (-108, DraftKings)
The Jacksonville implosion should be a warning to NFL teams: as much as Trevor Lawrence is inaccurate, Travis Etienne is gameplanned to run directly into the asses of his interior linemen, and the secondary is getting smoked, look at the deeper issues here. Lawrence has the yips from three years of running for his life, and we’re seeing good coordinators plan around their roster deficiencies on both sides of the ball in New Orleans/Baltimore/countless other franchises that aren’t shitting the bed. Yet in Jacksonville, get your injured DBs out there and keep playing man at the highest rate in the league, and let’s continue to run our elusive and fast RB up the middle. Get fucked, Doug Pederson/Press Taylor/Ryan Neilsen. Even with the Texans beat up and this being a divisional game, this is a get right week for the only Texas team that many had going deep into the playoffs.
Kansas City/Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 40 (Caesars, -110)
Justin Herbert might be out, but I’m not sure this matters. The Chargers are one of the slowest pace of play teams in the league right now, having scored 58 points in the first three weeks combined. The Chiefs explosion that so many of us predicted after the team added Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy hasn’t come to fruition yet, as the offense is still locked into a low ADOT, possession precision attack. This number is about as low as I’m willing to go when one of the teams involved has Patrick Mahomes on it, but given the pace of play and ball control offenses on the field, it’s a line I’m comfortable with.
L.A. Rams Moneyline (Caesars, +140)
The Chicago offense is broken. The Rams bodies are broken. Having watched every snap from both teams, I can see why the home team has a slight edge for betting purposes. That said, even without half of their offensive line, both their stud WRs, and a handful of important role players, the Rams have something the Bears don’t: elite coaching. The coaching difference between Sean McVay and Matt Eberflus is one of the biggest mismatches of the week, both on and off the field. The youthful pass rush of the Rams should give the Bears fits, and all the things I said earlier about the Jacksonville coaching problems applies doubly to the Bears HC and idiot OC. Jaxon Smith-Njigba tried to warn us.
Zack Moss OVER 54.5 rushing yards
I’m trying something new this week. As much as I love betting lines and spreads, my heart is always with the player props. Zack Moss has the nuts matchup this week: when you combine offensive rush EPA with defensive rush EPA allowed. Zack Moss is the clear RB1 of the week. Not only does he have the matchup, this is a must-win for Cincinnati, and while Football Absurdity co-founder Waleed Ismail is quietly crying, Chase Brown is clearly the spell back in this backfield. Moss has a 75% snap rate, 70% RB rush share, 83% red zone snap rate, and 59% route participation. Going against the Panthers in a game the team needs to win? It’s Zack Moss time, baby.
Last Week: 3-1
Year To Date: 4-8
Tony Martin. Author. Dreamweaver. Visionary, plus actor. He writes for Football Absurdity and co-hosts the THfantaC Podcast. Bet along at: https://signupexpert.com/thfantac
