Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun. While I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
Well, we’re 1-7. I can’t lie, one of the hardest things a gambler can do is admit that they’re as due as I am right now. Also, since both of my long-shot plays have turned into massive blowout losses, it’s time.
“Look across the river, the long shot play of the week, and I’ll tell you how it will be. We’re going to get a little place. We’ll have a cow, and maybe a pig and some chickens, and down the flat, we’ll have a little piece of alfalfa, for the rabbits.”
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Anyways, now that we’ve purged ourselves of the sins of our fathers, it’s time to get back at it and deliver some winners for you this week. This series of bets is less gambling advice, and more a coming-of-age novel based on the experience of migrant workers in Dust Bowl America.
Houston -2.5 (-105, Fanduel)
Minnesota is one of those teams that I’m still trying to figure out, but we’ve watched Houston win both ugly and by blowing the lid off of Indy in week 1. This line is close enough that even if Minnesota hangs in a game they have no business being part of, a Texans win should theoretically be by more than a simple field goal. No Joe Mixon should mean the Texans do what we want, and whip that shit 55 times a game. Fuck it, we ball. Good luck with that cute shit, Brian Flores. The ghost of Tom Joad whispered to me and said “Texans to cover.”
Seattle -4.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Any world where a Skylar Thompson-led team goes against a Mike Macdonald defense has the potential to be a bloodbath. Thompson has the skill position players around him to take short gains very far, but a McDonald defense swarms in a way that very few can. Seattle’s defense is monstrous, and Miami’s is, well, not. If the Seahawks continue throwing at such a high rate to offset Zach Charbonnet’s awful play, this game could get ugly real quick and that defense can start jumping some routes.
Kansas City -3 (-110, Caesars)
After the Falcons were gifted a ridiculously silly win on MNF, they host Kansas City on SNF. KC has a one-day rest advantage and should make light work of a team that still hasn’t figured out much of its identity. No Pacheco might be the reason why this line is just three, but similar to Seattle: if the KC offense has to throw at a 70% rate through three quarters, I like the odds of this one becoming a blowout. Don’t start Carson Steele you’re so sexy aha.
Chicago/Indianapolis UNDER 43.5 (-110, BETMGM)
The Colts and Bears are two of the more lost franchises in the league at the moment. Caleb Williams is getting no help up front, but the game still seems to be moving too fast for him. Anthony Richardson is a guy who we love for fantasy, but still has some accuracy issues and is throwing against the defense that led the league in interceptions last year and is top 10 in that stat so far this year. Both of these defenses play the bend but don’t break philosophy, which means the AR deep ball is the best way either of these offenses have to score points. I’ll take the under because it’s what my brain says, and if I’m wrong, maybe Caleb is fixed and I can wear the jersey to work again without being ridiculed.
2024 Record: 1-7
Tony Martin. Author. Dreamweaver. Visionary, plus actor. He writes for Football Absurdity and co-hosts the THfantaC Podcast. Bet along at: https://signupexpert.com/thfantac
