Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you. I thought about that a lot as I went back to the lab to cook back up some winners this week. Weeks 1-4 tend to be a bit of a crapshoot, as teams figure out what they’re going to do and how they will do it, but that’s no excuse. I got hosed in week 1, with my long shot play going historically terrible. If it keeps up, we’re taking that segment out back and having it shot.
This year, as part of the THfantaC sponsorship with Betstamp, you can sign up for sportsbooks that are local to your area and look for the best deals possible. You can expect that finding as many profitable lines as you can across books as part of my whole “deal” this year, so be sure to follow me at https://signupexpert.com/thfantac to take advantage of playing the books against each other.
Kansas City (-5), (-110, DraftKings)
You guys, I have a deep-seated fear that Joe Burrow’s wrist is just never going to be fully there ever again. I watched this man struggle to hold a water bottle on the sidelines last week, and also look like shit despite having his 3rd lowest pressure rate in a single game IN HIS ENTIRE CAREER. Per FantasyPoints (really worth the money), he only threw 6 of his 29 week 1 passes more than 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to let Cincy hang around in this game and give Burrow the chance to take it late. They’re gonna pile it on, and I feel confident in a KC win by a touchdown or more.
Indianapolis (-3) (-102, DraftKings)
This is a dangerous game to bet, so if you’re faint of heart, I won’t take it personally (you wuss). The Packers are a better squad from 1-53 than the Colts, that’s undeniable. However, the Malik Willis factor is huge. Colossal, in fact. I don’t see any reason why Indy can’t cover up a lot of their shortcomings against one of the worst QBs in the modern era, who just joined the team less than two months ago. This has shades of the Josh Freeman game when he joined the Vikings and started his first game ten days later. It also has shades of the Josh Dobbs ascension, but Dobbs has shown signs of being at least a replacement-level QB in the NFL, Willis has not. Take Indy to win the time of possession 70/30 and win by more than 3.
San Francisco (-6) (-110, BetMGM)
I’m smashing this line regardless. I don’t care if CMC is out, in, or traded to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (go Ti-Cats); the mismatch between San Francisco and Minnesota is immense. The 49ers made the Jets’ defense look like absolute garbage, even without the god of pro football starting. It doesn’t matter. On the other hand, Minnesota is a bad team that looked strong in week 1 by virtue of going up against a true bottom-feeder. No lessons should be learned from this except that Justin Jefferson and Malik Nabers are unreal. Sam Darnold’s ghosts are coming back, and San Francisco crushes on the road.
Longshot Play of the Week: LA Rams Moneyline (+102, DraftKings)
I love getting plus odds for the better team to win. I know the Rams are the walking wounded right now, and that’s baked into the price. Even sans Puka and half their offensive line, the Cardinals are the perfect team to catch at a time like this. They can’t get consistent pressure or clog up running lanes, and the McVay system should get Kyren on the edge easily. Any interior line issues in the passing game should be aided through quick throws to Cooper Kupp in the short area, one of the best things this team has done over the past few years. Arizona is not a good defense, and I think they played above their level to meet a Bills team that candidly isn’t the powerhouse we expect them to be.
