Whenever I do my 32-team series, I love getting to the 49ers. First, they’re my favorite team, so usually, the articles end up done in a semi-auto pilot mode deep into my subconscious. Second, and more importantly, it means that when I’m done with the Niners, I have only four teams left to write about, and I’ve hit the home stretch. As a 49ers fan, 2024 has certainly been… challenging. From the Niners seemingly losing the Super Bowl because they weren’t sure how rules worked, to the ongoing Brandon Aiyuk Saga, that briefly became a Deebo Samuel Saga. Now, Trent Williams is holding out and Christian McCaffrey is holding his calf. Kyle Shanahan always has barely controlled chaos bubbling just below the surface of his rosters, but there’s always fantasy goodness there. Let’s dive in with an undervalued Niner, an overvalued Niner, and a sleeper (hint: it’s a receiver, but not the one you think).
Overvalued: George Kittle, Tight End (TE6, Pick 62 Overall)
Now, this isn’t because George Kittle isn’t good. The quite opposite. George Kittle is the best all-around tight end in the league, and because of that, his fantasy football output is wildly inconsistent and unreliable from week to week. The 49ers frequently use him as a blocker, which he loves; they also frequently use him as a decoy, which he loves. The thing is, George Kittle just loves football, so he’s never going to press the issue on his target share. That’s why he ranked fourteenth at tight end in that stat last year, despite playing on 91% of snaps (the second-most). He gets a lot of deep shots (the most at tight end), and he had the second-most tight end touchdowns and the most receiving yards last season. All of that added up to… TE6. He’s being drafted at his ceiling thanks to the boom-bust nature of his play (six weeks inside the top-3, six weeks outside the top-20 at tight end). If you want to build a rock-solid group of receivers and treat George Kittle as your cherry on top, then go for it. For me, I don’t like to get a player who wins me weeks as often as he loses them, not at a onesie position at tight end when I can get consistent upside players like Evan Engram later.
Undervalued: Brock Purdy, Quarterback (QB11, Pick 91 Overall)
There are folks out there who love to talk about how the 49ers don’t throw the ball enough to justify getting Brock Purdy onto their fantasy football rosters. While the Niners did throw the ball only 29 times per game last year (second-lowest number, behind Baltimore), they were also one of the most efficient passing games in the league, with Brock Purdy averaging a league-high 9.6 passing yards per attempt, on the tenth-highest air yards per attempt in the league (8.2). He also ranked first in deep ball completion percentage, play action completion percentage, true passer rating, QBR, and a pathetic second in red zone completion percentage.
Imagine he drops down to fifth or sixth in those efficiency metrics (unlikely, given those weapons)… that just means more passes for Purdy. If he’s not airing it out (Purdy led the league in 20+ yard passing plays and 40+ yard passing plays) that just means more passes. To put it a different way: it takes four 25-yard passes to make it down a football field, but 20 five-yard passes. You can’t ding him for not passing the ball enough and for being unsustainably efficient passing the ball. The two are related, and you can get a guy who is a lock for being a top-eight QB at QB11. If I miss on Kyler Murray, I’m likely looking Brock Purdy’s way later in the draft.
Sleeper: Jauan Jennings, Wide Receiver (WR101, Pick 264 Overall)
This one will cash in if Brandon Aiyuk ends up a Steeler (he won’t). But, if he does, then it’s Jauan Jennings, not rookie Ricky Pearsall, who will benefit from Aiyuk’s departure. The 49ers made keeping Jauan Jennings in the building a priority, giving him an extension and raise. The player they call “Third and Jauan” is already a key part of the offense, as their rotational third wide receiver, entering his fourth year with the Niners. He had over four targets three times last season, including 4 catches for 42 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets in the Super Bowl. The Niners like Jennings, and he fits what they do well.
But why not Ricky Pearsall? Well, as the saying goes, you can’t make the team in the weight room. Pearsall underwent a surgical procedure to deal with a shoulder injury early in the offseason, which caused him to miss much of the offseason program. He then didn’t make it off of PUP until July 27th with a hamstring injury then reaggravated the shoulder injury. He’s missing out on key reps that Brock Purdy and Jauan Jennings have now been having for two seasons. Add this to Kyle Shanahan’s propensity for dumping young receivers into the Phantom Realm and Pearsall likely takes a back seat in his rookie campaign.
