The Steelers took a much-needed blowtorch to their offense this offseason, replacing offensive tackles, and the quarterback, and swapping out receivers. Only the running backs and tight ends made it out unscathed. Oh, and they have a new offensive coordinator! It’s offensive genius… Arthur Smith…
Well, at least he innovated in Atlanta, what with his “Oops All Jonnus” Offense despite Kyle Pitts and Drake London. And, given that I need to get this out before Brandon Aiyuk (doesn’t) end up in Pittsburgh, let’s get this party started! Let’s take a look at an undervalued and overvalued player in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, as well as one fantasy football sleeper!
Overvalued: George Pickens, Wide Receiver (WR27, Pick 52 Overall)
I already used my two punts this season (I skipped a Jets overvalued player and an Eagles sleeper), so I had to find an overvalued player on the Steelers. At this point, it pretty much only could be George Pickens. Pickens is a wildly inconsistent player, who many are projecting for a bigger role without Diontae Johnson. Given that the Steelers’ plans were a third-round Roman Wilson and begging the 49ers to give them Brandon Aiyuk, it’s a good bet that Pickens will see a lot more targets.
Unfortunately, a lot more targets likely won’t lead to a massive jump in production that people hope will happen. Pickens had a wild season last year, averaging over 18 yards per reception, which led the NFL. That worked out great for him because he wasn’t tasked with doing any of the meat-and-potato routes; the chain movers, the dirty work. Without Diontae Johnson around, those shorter, harder, more technical routes will fall to Pickens. Unfortunately, Pickens doesn’t have the skillset for that sort of thing. He is best suited as a freak of nature who goes out there and catches massive passes, and who opens up for the technicians underneath.
That isn’t to say that George Pickens doesn’t have things to like about his time without Diontae Johnson. Johnson missed four games last year, and George Pickens stepped up, getting over 8 targets per game! And in those four games, George Pickens averaged 4.3 catches for 89.3 yards per game, which is a great output. Once Johnson returned, Pickens’ target volume dropped down to six targets per game. Unfortunately, he caught 3.7 balls for 67.9 yards per game after that point, meaning that he was still a big-play receiver, he just had slightly more big plays. His game didn’t change, and those who fear he is going to be anything more than a big play receiver don’t have history on your side.
Again, please remember that I could not punt on this. I think George Pickens is a fine value at WR28, and is a great boom/bust WR3. Just don’t expect him to be much more than that; his final rank will depend on if he booms more than he busts.
Undervalued: Jaylen Warren, Running Back (RB26, Pick 86 Overall)
I haven’t seen the weird consensus undervalued pick since Chris Godwin’s breakout season back in 2019. Everyone agreed that Godwin wasn’t valued properly, yet nobody changed his valuation. And I’m a hypocrite; I write this with Warren as my RB27. I am truly a coward. Yet, I like Warren this year! New OC Arthur Smith has a slavish devotion to Running the Dang Rock™ and Warren & Najee Harris are set to make for a potent one-two combo in this offense.
Warren finished as RB29 last season in points per game, and many thought that Najee Harris wouldn’t be a Steeler in 2024. Harris is still around, and he & Warren will split touches. But, the run game pie should grow in 2024, and Warren’s spot in the offense should grow, accordingly.
Warren was a beast as the lightning side of a thunder-and-lightning platoon with Najee Harris last year, finishing with 74 targets, 61 receptions, and 370 receiving yards to go with his 784 rushing yards and four total touchdowns. Those catches are a nice boon in PPR leagues, as, after all, a 1-yard catch is worth an 11-yard run. But, once he has the ball in his hands, he’s one of the most dynamic runners in the league. He ranked first in juke rate, third in breakaway run rate, and third in yards created per touch. So, give him an extra 4 or so carries per game to go with his targets, and he should finish well within the middle-to-high RB2 ranks, and you can get him as a deepish flex play. Should something happen to Najee Harris, then the sky’s the limit for Warren.
Sleeper: Russell Wilson, Quarterback (QB29, Pick 192 Overall)
Russell Wilson is playing for the love of the game, signing a vet minimum with the Steelers after he became a Denver Broncos camp casualty. But, because of his ongoing camp battle with Justin Fields. But, with a disastrous first start in a Steelers uniform, and with camp reports sounding ominously familiar, it seems as though it will be Russell Wilson’s job, at least to start. Is Russell Wilson still prime Russ? Absolutely not. Have you ever been in your mid-30s? It sucks. But, Russell Wilson on the Broncos was still a banger of a fantasy quarterback. He finished as QB12 in fantasy points per game, despite ranking 28th in passing plays and the Broncos running a slow-down offense (26th in pace of play). Russ made up for it by hanging onions on every passing play: he finished ninth in deep ball attempts, sixth in red zone pass attempts, and first in pressured throws. He was just going out there and slinging the rock, ranking ninth in fantasy points per dropback, despite just 341 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
Russell Wilson is a lock to finish inside the top-fifteen quarterbacks if he gets the nod as the starter, and has a chance to be a lot higher. You’re getting him at a massive discount because people are afraid of Justin Fields. Don’t do that, Russell Wilson is still a beast with the football, and the Steelers are going to once again annoyingly finish above .500 because of it.
