The Jaguars rebuilt their receiver room, eschewing another year of Calvin Ridley for Gabriel Davis and rookie Brian Thomas, Jr. They pretty much stood pat other than that when it comes to their fantasy football-relevant options between 2023 and 2024. So, what can we expect from the Jaguars (other than hopefully not crashing down the stretch again)? Let’s dive into an undervalued and overvalued player on the Jags, as well as a potential sleeper for the 2024 fantasy football season!
Overvalued: Travis Etienne, Running Back (RB10, Pick 25 Overall)
Folks in the draft space are exceptionally cautious on the Jaguars this season, with Etienne going as the only player in the top 60 picks (Christian Kirk is pick 61). This makes finding an overvalued player exceptionally difficult. Etienne is my pick for the Jaguars thanks to his top-ten price tag. I love ETN, and I think that he is an exceptional talent, but I just can’t put my chip down on him at his price tag. Etienne was the RB7 last season, so I get that RB10 is being cautious with him, I also understand that the Jaguars doubled down on their passing game, and that is going to cause some struggles for Etienne to return his top-10 price tag.
Much of Travis Etienne’s value in 2023 came from his receiving, as he ranked seventh in targets, sixth in receptions, and ninth in touchdowns. This helped buoy his rushing production, as he barely scraped past 1000 rushing yards. This is something that likely reduces, thanks to the switchover from Calvin Ridley to Brian Thomas, Jr. & Calvin Ridley. I don’t think Etienne falls farther than RB15, but I also think that taking him at RB10 is likely taking him at his ceiling, which is why I need to stress to you that he is overvalued, not a bust.
Undervalued: Evan Engram, Tight End (TE8, Pick 66 Overall)
The most annoying trope in tight end analysis is that “he’s a wide receiver with tight end eligibility!” That’s not true, people will look at 70% route participation and call that good enough, but not me. You have to truly be out there running routes on nearly every play for me to give you the “really he’s a receiver” definition. For me, that’s Evan Engram after last season. Engram finished last year running 603 routes, with a 97.4% route participation. Only seven players in the whole league ran at least 600 routes, putting Evan Engram alongside CeeDee Lamb’s 606 at the bottom of that list. He is truly a receiver with a tight end designation. The next-highest tight end was Cade Otton, and he was the only other tight end above 520 routes run last year.
He’s truly out there with the most opportunities to produce out of any tight end in the league, and the Jaguars are not afraid to use him. Engram finished with the most targets and receptions among tight ends last year, and the third-most receiving yards. He’s a huge value going at pick 66 overall because he’s an elite wide receiver in the body (and with the eligibility) of a tight end.
Sleeper: Brian Thomas Jr., Wide Receiver (WR48, Pick 108 Overall)
Thomas is decently sized and ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the combine, so he is an athletic marvel. He also is an adept (though raw) route runner and a fun player with the ball in his hands. He’s also a very good high-point receiver and a YAC monster. He has a bit of bonehead in his game, but all-in-all, he can produce when given the opportunity. His profile reminds me a ton of George Pickens, even down to the chronic weirdness on the football field.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a wide receiver room bereft of a WR1. They lost Calvin Ridley this offseason, and Christian Kirk & Zay Jones are better suited as WR2/WR3 in an ideal situation. He will cap off this offense with someone who could be a true #1 for them in 2024, and grow with Trevor Lawrence. Calvin Ridley vacated 136 targets (the fourteenth-most in the NFL) and 1792 air yards (the eighth-most in the NFL). The Jags went out and got Gabriel Davis in free agency, but we saw in 2023 just how little you can rely on Davis. It’s more likely that Davis moves Zay Jones down the depth chart than it is he takes that opportunity away from Brian Thomas.
He is going outside the top 100 picks, and if the Jaguars do what they hope to do, then the first-rounder will easily finish as a top-60 player in fantasy football leagues.
