If the Detroit Lions are the #1 all-vibes team in the league, then the Texans aren’t far behind. They added incredible talent in Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Denico Autrey, and Danielle Hunter, and they’re set to return to the top of the suddenly rough-and-tumble AFC South. The team is incredibly spot-on with their ADP, so it was hard to find an overvalued and undervalued player and forget about a sleeper. But, I am once again, pushing that boulder up the hill to make your draft clearer.
Overvalued: Nico Collins, Wide Receiver (WR11, Pick 18 Overall)
Nico Collins balled out last year, finishing as the WR7 in PPR leagues. The Texans paid him this offseason, but things are going to be very different for him this time around. First, he has a fully actuated Tank Dell to contend with this time around. Dell was taking over, ripping off 43 targets in 4 games, when he went down with an injury. That doesn’t bode well for Collins being the first Houston receiver off the board. Second, the Texans added Stefon Diggs. Even if you think that Diggs lost a step, he is still an elite route runner and when he’s engaged, he could still be one of the best receivers in the NFL.
With those two in tow, and Dalton Schultz, Joe Mixon, and a combination of Noah Brown and Robert Woods sopping up extra targets, Stroud would need to significantly grow his 499 pass attempts from last season to justify taking a receiver as a fantasy football WR1.
Undervalued: Tank Dell, Wide Receiver (WR27, Pick 53 Overall)
Dell going this late doesn’t make a ton of sense. He finished as WR12 in fantasy points per game last season, including a game where he had zero statistics, as he was injured blocking before getting a single target. In the four games before leaving for the year, he had 369 yards, and 5 touchdowns (on 25 receptions). He was a beast right before he broke his leg.
Breaking his leg is also an encouraging reason as can be for missing the last five games of the season, since that doesn’t have the same lingering issues as an ACL tear or deep muscle tear. Generally, you don’t see these folks come back with significant issues (unless they’re injured in the playoffs, like Tony Pollard). Dell is still the same guy, and he is a great bet to lead this team in targets. He’s also going last out of the three guys who might have a shot at that title, behind Nico Collins (WR11) and Stefon Diggs (WR16).
Sleeper: Noah Brown, Wide Receiver (WR104, Pick 269 Overall)
To be clear, we need at least one injury ahead of Brown to turn in any sort of fantasy football value; he’s likely fourth on the wide receiver depth chart, and unlikely to get significant snaps unless someone gets hurt. But, only six receivers had at least 150 yards in multiple games last season: Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, and… Noah Brown. Stroud gives everyone who might have a hand in this offense a chance to succeed, and Brown took full advantage of that last season, turning 14 targets into 13 receptions for 325 yards and a touchdown in weeks 8 and 9 last season, before getting injured and missing two games. Should the depth chart melt away ahead of him due to injuries, then Noah Brown has a chance to be a league winner down the stretch.
