Of all the offseasons in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills certainly had one. They traded Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis went off to the Jaguars to run wind sprints for Trevor Lawrence & Company. The wide receiver room is wide open, with Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman & Chase Claypool joining Khalil Shakir. Let’s take a look at a few players in the passing game whose draft prices don’t quite match up with their projected opportunities in 2024.
Overvalued: Dalton Kincaid, Tight End (TE5, Pick 54 Overall)
Right now, Dalton Kincaid counts himself among every run down of “elite tight ends” in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Unfortunately, he isn’t going to live up to his TE5 pick because of one man: Dawson Knox. The math here is simple: with Dawson Knox on the field, Dalton Kincaid averaged 7.6 PPR points per game on 5 targets, 4.2 receptions, and 34 yards per game. Without Knox, he averaged 11.7 PPR points per game on 6.6 targets, 5 receptions, and 52.6 yards per game. That was a full-season pace of 112 targets, 85 receptions, 894 yards, and 5 touchdowns. That would have ranked him 6th, 5th, 5th, and 7th in those categories at tight end over a seventeen-game pace. In fantasy points per game, it would have ranked him eighth, just 0.4 points per game ahead of Cole Kmet.
Again, those are without Dawson Knox. Knox is back, and they drafted Keon Coleman in the 2024 NFL Draft, putting Kincaid in target competition once again. When he was the sole tight end in the room, he flourished, but we are drafting Kincaid with the idea that Knox won’t exist. The truth is that Dalton Kincaid is already sort of at the top of his usage, already. He was second in slot snaps at tight end last season, and eleventh in routes run.
I don’t think that Kincaid will bust. I rewrote the whole series specifically to change “Bust” to “Undervalued” for Dalton Kincaid, lest I sound sensationalist. But, if you project a step forward in touchdowns, then sure, maybe he can reach TE5. But, it feels like he is being drafted at his ceiling.
Undervalued: Keon Coleman, Wide Receiver (WR49, Pick 109 Overall)
If I had to define his game in one word, it would be leverage. While guys like N’Keal Harry were good 50-50 players in college because they were big & strong, Coleman is a great 50-50 player because he knows how to get himself to the position where only he will catch the football. He is just a very smart route runner, finding success against off man, and zone coverage. Though press man gives him fits, it’s not because of a lack of strength, it’s a lack of creativity in route running. All in all, Coleman is incredibly adept at finding space, and he is a back-shoulder fade expert.
While he’s best at back shoulder fades, he’s also incredible with the ball in his hands (he’s somewhat creative and fast) and is a good high-pointer. This is likely why over 20% of his catches in his last year at Florida State went for touchdowns.
Josh Allen needs weapons, and Keon Coleman is likely the best wide receiver on this team, or at least the one with the skill set best suited for fantasy football production thanks to his touchdown upside.
Sleeper: Curtis Samuel, Wide Receiver (WR51, Pick 112 Overall)
It’s hard to call Samuel a sleeper, but I wanted to get another wide receiver on here. Curtis Samuel went to the Bills in part thanks to the Joe Brady Effect. Brady is the offensive coordinator for the Bills, after playing the same role for the Panthers in 2020 and 2021. He overlapped in 2020 with Curtis Samuel, and Samuel saw career highs in receptions, receiving yards, first downs, yards per target, and rush attempts & rushing yards. He finished the year with 118 touches for 1,051 yards, and 5 total touchdowns. Samuel did this as the third target on the Panthers, behind Robbie Chosen and D.J. Moore (with an 18% target share). Thanks to his rushing versatility, he was second on the team in touches behind Mike Davis. He finished as WR26 on the year.
While I doubt that Curtis Samuel will finish as WR26 on the season, he should finish well within the top 36 at the position. He’s reunited with the offensive coordinator who gave him his best season while playing in a wide-open receiver room. Even if he finishes third in targets, his role will be enough to get him a top-30 finish in the prolific Bills offense.
