The Arizona Cardinals bottomed out last season, but a mid-year explosion from Joshua Dobbs didn’t destroy their ability to get Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft. The Cardinals hope to build on the Trey McBride breakout from last year, and they hope to get Kyler Murray some increased production. But, how will their plans play out for 2024? How does the ADP shake out? Let’s dive into the undervalued, overvalued, and sleeper pick for the 2024 Arizona Cardinals! The ADP below is built from the Footballguys.com Average Draft Position consensus data.
Undervalued: Kyler Murray, Quarterback (QB10, Pick 76 Overall)
Kyler Murray came back from injury last season to average 18.9 fantasy points per game, which put him squarely at QB10 in fantasy points per game. So many things are working in Murray’s favor this season, including his recovery, his new weapon, and his historical performance.
Last year, Kyler was making his way back from a late-season ACL tear, and he wasn’t his normal self last year. He topped 50 rushing yards just once in eight games last season, and in the ten games in 2023 before his injury, he topped 50 rushing yards three times. He was also a top-12 quarterback in eight of those ten games. That’s because he also had DeAndre Hopkins in 2022, who gave him a true #1 wide receiver, something he lacked in 2023. With Marvin Harrison in tow, he will get back to throwing for the 246 passing yards per game he averaged with Nuk Hopkins.
Then, there’s the historical data: in the three years before 2023, he finished as QB3, QB4, and QB7. QB10 is an abject steal for Kyler Murray this draft season.
Overvalued: Trey McBride, Tight End (TE3, Pick 11 Overall)
This isn’t to say that I don’t think that Trey McBride is talented. He showed that last season when he turned 106 targets into 81 catches, 825 yards, and 3 touchdowns. A lot of his value came after the Zach Ertz injury in week seven. Before that game, McBride averaged 2 catches for 23.5 yards on 2.5 targets per game. After Zach Ertz fell to injury, McBride averaged 6.6 receptions for 65.5 yards on 8.5 targets per game (a 144 target pace). Those 144 targets would have led all tight ends in 2024, one ahead of Evan Engram. They would have been second to Travis Kelce’s 152 in 2022 (#2, T.J. Hockenson, had 129). That is to say, I would not expect him to keep that 144 target pace up, and that’s precisely what he needs to return his value.
Why am I so bearish on his target volume maintenance? Three Words: Marvin Harrison Junior. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Arizona, and MHJ, who the Cardinals took at #4 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, is the most gaping maw of them all, and the player the Cardinals will work the offense through. McBride’s target volume was pure necessity, as the role was not fruitful for Zach Ertz (6.1 targets per game).
While I don’t see McBride as a bust, I do see his TE3 as overvalued, as it is drafting him at his absolute ceiling.
Sleeper: Trey Benson, Running Back (RB38, Pick 118 Overall)
Trey Benson is a sleeper insofar as James Conner has missed a chunk of games in the middle of the season in every season that he’s been the starter, going down to injury in his sixth game in each of the last two seasons. As an aging person myself, I can tell you that isn’t a trend that reverses itself. That gives Trey Benson an inevitable foot in the door for the Cardinals, and they’ve already molded running back to be one that fits Benson’s skill set.
Traditionally, James Conner has been a good pass-catching back, and it was a big part of why we drafted him. 2023 saw his lowest targets per game, receptions per game, and yards per game of his career (since becoming a full-time player in his second season). That moves toward the Trey Benson “all running, no hands” style of runner. Benson averaged 6.1 yards per rush in college, as a hard-nosed, tough runner, and he averaged less than one catch per game. He’s an Isiah Pacheco-style runner, as in he runs like he bites people. He’s big, strong, and fast, and James Conner will give him a window of opportunity this season.
