It’s almost August, so it’s high time we turn our attention to fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, and busts for every NFL team. The ADP is per 4for4’s ADP data. We round out the AFC with a look at the AFC West’s four teams. Can the Chargers stop Chargering for like 30 seconds in 2023? Did the Cowboys fire Kellen Moore because he threatened to take Jerry Jones’ salt away? Will Austin Ekeler ever stop scoring a billion touchdowns? We answer none of those questions, and more, with the Los Angeles Chargers’ sleeper, breakout and bust!
Sleeper: Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver (WR
Johnston is too big to be this fast, or too fast to be this big. Either way, he was a bully at TCU, overpowering defenders with his unique blend of speed and size (and with his long arms!). He played like he was the biggest kid on the playground, just imposing his will on defenses. This is both good and bad, as his athleticism made him dominant in college, but also made him less-than-stellar at the finer points of the position. He’s a sloppy route runner, and he rounds off a lot. He also lets defenders body him by failing to get his feet set properly on 50/50 balls, leading smaller opponents to leverage against him. All-in-all, his freak athleticism, speed, and size will play in the league as long as he does not let opposing defenders make him play smaller than he actually is. He might struggle out of the gate, but he should end up with at least one All-Pro season under his belt.
With that kind of upside at the position, I am more than happy to take a flier on QJ at his price, especially given the boost that the Kellen Moore offense is going to bring to the Chargers.
Breakout: Gerald Everett
The Kellen Moore Cowboys ranked inside the top-ten in tight end targets in each of the last two seasons, and Gerald Everett is the player most primed to take advantage of the benefits of the Moore offense. He ranked eighth in TE targets last season, as well as eighth in receptions. It isn’t just targets and receptions for Everett that have me excited, he also ranked top-ten in slot snaps, routes run, red zone targets, and yards after the catch.
The thing that kept him from ascending to true fantasy football stud status: 4 total touchdowns (12th at the position). Luckily, the Kellen Moore offense is friendly to tight ends, with the position getting 20 over the last two seasons, which ranked second at the position. One out of every ten Cowboys’ receptions were touchdowns in the last two seasons, which put on Gerald Everett, makes him good for at least six touchdowns in 2023.
Bust: Not a DANG PERSON
The Chargers offense is set for a massive step forward this season under Kellen Moore. Moore ran one of the most prolific offenses the last few years in Dallas, and he has better offensive weaponry in Los Angeles than he had in Dallas the last couple of seasons. Scoop up every bit of the Chargers offense that you can get your grubby little hands on. It’s giddy up for everyone involved.
The best part? Herbert is going to spread the ball around. Last season, he ranked second in passes beyond his first read (among 33 quarterbacks to throw at least 200 passes). It’ll be a veritable fantasy football buffet.
