It’s almost July, which means that it’s high time we turn our attention to fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, and busts for every NFL team. The ADP is per 4for4’s ADP data, pulled in the last week of June. We will start with the AFC East, and we finish the division with the New York Jets. They have plenty of questions with the addition of Aaron Rodgers and their sudden categorization as an AFC East contender. Can Aaron Rodgers stay off the drugs? Can Zach Wilson stay off the moms? Will Israel Abanikanda finally acquiesce to my “Abanikanda Forever” nickname that I’m desperately trying to make happen? We answer none of those questions, and more, with the . Can Tua Tagovailoa play all seventeen games? Will Tyreek Hill beat the case, yet again? Will Mike McDaniel ever just be normal for like 30 seconds? We answer none of those questions, and more, with the Miami Dolphins’ sleeper, breakout and bust!
Sleeper: Tyler Conklin, Tight End (TE24, Pick 189 Overall)
Tyler Conkowski finished 2022 with 87 targets across 17 games, which tied with Gerald Everett for eighth at the position. Much like Garrett Wilson (more on him in a second), he had dreadful quarterbacks throwing him the football in what would otherwise be a tight end friendly offense. Despite that, the volume gave him a top-fifteen tight end finish, as he ended the season with a 58/552/3 line, good enough for 131.5 PPR points. Put Aaron Rodgers in that tight end friendly offense, and see how those numbers will boost right up. He’s firmly inside the tight end blob, but hes drafted as a backend TE2. You don’t have to draft him, but you could snag him after the first couple of weeks, should he and Rodgers connect immediately.
Breakout: Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver (WR8, Pick 12 Overall)
Much like Rhamondre Stevenson on the Patriots, the breakout is already baked into the Garrett Wilson cost for 2023. The case for Wilson is extremely straightforward: he finished with 1,100 yards on 147 targets as a rookie with a mishmash of Zach Wilson, Mike White, Chris Streveler, and Joe Flacco throwing him the football. And now, he has Aaron Rodgers. That’s pretty much it, that’s the case for the breakout. If you want that quantified, Garrett Wilson, per PlayerProfiler.com, had a 63.9% catchable target rate last season (92nd), and only Christian Watson had double-digit targets with a catchable rate under 67% with Aaron Rodgers in 2022.
Bust: Breece Hall, Running Back (RB11, Pick 31 Overall)
Sorry, but I have been burned enough times by “player tore his ACL late in the season, and should be ready for week one,” that I don’t want to invest a top-three round selection in this happening again. While Robert Saleh said he is “very optimistic” that Hall will be ready for week one, that has a lot to do with him hitting high speeds on a radar gun. While that’s a great step in the right direction, it isn’t really a stress test for an ACL. That quote in that article isn’t the one that has me spooked. Go ahead and actually click the link. You’ll know exactly the quote that has me spooked about Hall’s week one availability. If you’re too lazy to click a link, here you go: “I’ll be ready when I’ll be ready. Obviously, I hope I’m ready [for Week 1], but you never know. I’m just taking it a week at a time and letting my knee do what it does. Everybody wants me to be ready for Week 1, but at the end of day, you have to come back when you feel ready. Until I feel like I’m ready, I’ll just know.
Yikes. He’s hands off for me until we get something more definitive there.