Harsh reality sets in as I sit to write this article. Last week when I wrote this, I was staring off at a beach in Maui, enjoying the ocean air and the sound of waves crashing. Now i’m sitting in the Illinois suburbs, 24 hours off a jet home, dealing with temps in the 50’s and a dog who ate my window blinds while I was gone and now has uncontrollable diarrhea. Welcome back to real life, everybody. It doesn’t get much better than this…
As always, before we get going, always remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose. If you can only afford to bet five dollars this week, then only bet five dollars. Never go in debt, and never get yourself in trouble over gambling. If you think you have a problem, then step away. It’s easier to walk away than to be dragged away
Onto the Week 8 Picks!
The Best NFL Betting Tips for Week 8
Arizona Cardinals (+10.5) at New Orleans Saints
I stared at this game for several minutes, and find it to be one of the most utterly fascinating games of the week. The Arizona Cardinals are a couple early-season hiccups away from being 5-2. Seriously. If they could pull off the Lions game, and had chosen to man up and go for touchdowns in close yardage situations on fourth down instead of kicking field goals in their second game, they would be sitting at 5-2, and discussing Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray as potentially being the next great QB/Coach duo. The team has come together in a way most people (present company included) did not see them being able to do in season one.
They are averaging 23 points per game, three more than the Gardner Minshew-led Jaguars, and only 0.4 points per game fewer than the Saints. Here is where they are helping themselves: They aren’t causing turnovers. The Cardinals have only fumbled the ball once this season(and they recovered it). Kyler Murray has only thrown four interceptions this season. They are taking care of the ball, and even as a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of penalties on offense (really bad on defense), they aren’t making any big mistakes, and are instead playing their own game with discipline.
On the other side, Drew Brees is back. Teddy Bridgewater deserves the team MVP award this season for going undefeated as a starter with Brees gone. The Saints look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders coming out of the NFC this season. Alvin Kamara might/should be back this week. The Saints are ready to start flying high again.
With that being said, the Saints defense capitalizes on mistakes and could have issues against a team that doesn’t make them. I like the Saints to win the game, but I think the Cardinals getting the points this week is one of the best NFL bets available.
Green Bay Packers (-4) at Kansas City Chiefs
This line is a bit puzzling to me. I get that Matt Moore was admirable coming in to backup Patrick Mahomes after his injury last week. He threw a touchdown pass and kept the offense going. That being said, they were playing the Broncos, who are barely an NFL team at this point. No team marching Joe Flacco out every week deserves any recognition.
The Green Bay Packers, on the other hand, are starting to look like THE team to stand up to the Saints for NFC dominance this season. Their defense has been great and Aaron Rodgers is starting to look like the legend he has been for so many seasons. This line is too low only because the Chiefs are the home team.
I’m taking the Packers and putting them into any spreads I do as well.
Miami Dolphins (+14) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Here is a suggestion: Make a bet on this game, then throw your television into a river to make sure you don’t have to watch a single moment of it. Unless you are a fan of the Steelers, or one of the last eight people still supporting the Dolphins, you have no reason to watch this game under any circumstance. The Red Zone network should just black out this game as if it was an illicit porno.
Anyway, the Dolphins offense looks like it could, possibly, maybe have some signs of life with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Against the Steelers defense, the Dolphins should be able to score 14 points. So the better questions is: can the Steelers score 29 points? On the season, they are averaging 20.5. Against fellow dumpster fire Cincinnati, the Steelers put up 27 points.
God help me, i’m going to live to regret this, but give me the Dolphins getting the points.
Oakland Raiders (+7) at Houston Texans
The Raiders are better than they are supposed to be, but by how much? The Texans are worse than they were supposed to be, but by how much? These teams are more evenly matched than initial numbers might appear. I’ve stated before that the Texans are potentially a great team that plays too undisciplined to be considered a contender. At some point, you aren’t a team that has to tighten it up, you just are who you are. The only teams that have committed more penalties than the Texans offense this season are the Falcons, Cardinals, Washington, and the Browns. That’s not a list of teams you really want to be a part of. Offense is just as bleak.
The Raiders are just an average team, which is a win for them, I suppose. They are 13th in yards per game. 18th in points. On a per game basis, the Raiders are the 4th worst in scoring defense, and they are giving up fourth down conversions at a stunning 100% clip (small sample alert).
My instincts say that the Texans are going to find a way to move on this offense much better than the Raiders will move on the Texans defense. I’ll take the Texans giving a touchdown at home.
Cleveland Browns (+13.5) at New England Patriots
Don’t overthink it. Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time. Freddie Kitchens always looks like he is about to slip on a banana peel. Take the Patriots giving points.
Check out Brandon on Twitter at @theBman
He is also the founder of FANCY BOYS CLUB