Hey everyone, i’m in Maui for my sister’s wedding, so not a ton of time to do an intro. I think I might have sucked last week. At least, my gambling account says I sucked.
No worries, another week, another chance to gamble. As always, remember: Never bet more than you can afford. If you can only afford to gamble 10 bucks this week, then only bet 10 bucks. Never over extend yourself. Gambling isn’t worth losing it all over.
Now, with that said, let’s get into week 7!
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
This was a nine point line no more than a week ago. Something is not clicking quite right with the Chiefs right now, and their defense just isn’t good enough to bail them out. On the other side, the Broncos have won two consecutive games in spite of the fact that their starting quarterback is still Joe Flacco. The Broncos are staying alive because their defense is holding it’s own. The Chiefs are failing because their defense can’t hold their own.
That being said, The Chiefs are very obviously the better team. They still have the weapons to put up 40 points in a game on the right day, and the Broncos are almost completely inept at the concept of scoring 20 points per game. Weird things happen every week, but nothing weird enough to cause me to lose my faith in the Chiefs.
I’m taking the Chiefs giving points, and if you can get better odds by the Chiefs taking even worse numbers, do it. Lets say you are getting even odds to bet the Chiefs at that price, and you are getting +185 to win by 8.5, then take the better odds. This is the night for the Chiefs to get right. This game feels like 35-10. Take the Chiefs with all the numbers.
Oakland Raiders (+6) at Green Bay Packers
So lets be honest here, the Packers should be 4-2. They had no business winning the Lions game on Monday Night Football, and were exclusively aided by two garbage calls by the referees. The Raiders are coming off a big comeback win against the Bears in England two weeks ago. They are coming off a bye, and have had time to get their team healthy going into a huge game this week.
They have won their five games by a hair less than 7 points per game. The team isn’t good enough to blow anybody out, and the Raider are good enough to nullify a good Packers pass rush with quick passes. The Raiders are getting more confident every game, and the Packers aren’t going to get bailed out by the referees every week.
I like the Packers straight up, but I like the Raiders getting the points. If you can parlay both, do it. This has three point game written all over it.
San Francisco 49ers (-10) at Washington Football Team
Washington beat the Dolphins because the Dolphins weren’t smart enough to call a decent play on a two point conversion that decided the game last week. They didn’t exactly take down the 1972 Dolphins. The team is bad, and they don’t seem interested in bringing in Dwayne Haskins yet, but instead they are hellbent on proving Colt McCoy and Adrian Peterson are competent enough to be a competitive football team.
Spoiler alert: They aren’t. The 49ers are good, in spite of the fact that they have barely played a better schedule than the Patriots. They are going to blow the walls off Washington. It won’t be close. Take the 49ers giving the points, and don’t over think it.
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at New York Giants
So, it’s a known fact that Vegas automatically gives a home team three points. Then they take everything else into account. the fact that Vegas has left this game at these odds leads them to say that they think these two teams are even. The problem is, they aren’t even. Arizona is starting to figure out their season. Kyler Murray is starting to look more comfortable as a starting quarterback, in spite of the fact that his offensive line has more holes than the plot of The Office.
New York, on the other hand, is completely pumped up by the fact that they are in New York in the first place. Daniel Jones has been one of the least impressive of the young quarterbacks since his first game. This line is almost completely dependent on whether Saquon Barkley plays or not. If he does, take the Giants. If he doesn’t, take the Cardinals.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Detroit Lions
So the Lions got screwed last week, and the Vikings convincingly beat the Eagles by following the only method they have to assure victory: Get in the lead early and don’t make Kirk Cousins have to play in big moments when the game is on the line.
I really like the Lions. I hate their coach, but I like the Lions. Darrell Bevell is the offensive coordinator of the Lions, replacing Jim Bob Cooter after last season. Bevell coached up Russell Wilson when he was young, and seems to have developed a connection with quarterback Matthew Stafford. On defense, the line is relentless. I love how the lines of the Lions plays. They seem to be able to ground down opposing teams as the game goes on.
I really like the Lions getting points at home this week, and will most likely put it them into multiple parlays
Houston Texans (+1) at Indianapolis Colts
GAME OF THE WEEK, BABAAAAAAY!!! I’m really psyched to watched these two teams battle for AFC South supremacy. Both have signature wins under their belt this season. Both are out to prove that they belong among the upper echelon of the AFC. The Texans are trying to prove that they aren’t just a perennial first round burnout. The Colts are out to prove that Andrew Luck doesn’t define who they are as a team.
I’ve said this before: Just take whatever team you want and try to enjoy the game. I think these teams are too evenly matched to feel any good about putting money on either team.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
The Rams have caught a couple games in a row on the chin, against good competition. They have lost their last two games to two of the three best teams in the NFC, in San Francisco and Seattle. There is still a lot to like about this team, in spite of the fact that there is a growing belief that Jared Goff might not be the quarterback they envisioned.
The Falcons, on the other hand, are one of the five worst teams in the NFL. This isn’t based on talent, either. This is based purely on the fact that they are one of the worst coached teams in the NFL and every person with “coach” or “coordinator” in their schedule should have been fired by now. The Falcons are a dumpster fire. If Jerry Lewis was still alive, he would hold a telethon to help support Falcons fans.
Take the Rams. Don’t over think it. Sean McVay is a better coach than the Flotsam and Jetsom that wanders the Atlanta sidelines.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals continue to baffle me. If you really watch their games, then everything you see would lead you to believe that this team has multiple wins. In fact, there is an alternate universe where the Bengals have pulled out a couple of their close games and are only two games out of first place in the AFC North. Instead, they just keep finding ways to lose games. Bad coaching loses games. Bad line play loses games. Everything you can possibly imagine going wrong has for the Bengals this season.
For the Jaguars, Gardner Minshew has come back down to earth a bit. The offense seemed to really stall out against the Saints, and the team seems to be really dependent on big plays to make their mark. They need to coach up plays that gets second year wide receiver DJ Chark loose downfield. Chark has established himself as the team’s most reliable receiver for the team, but they are still running too many plays downfield for DeDe Westbrook, who has had a bad case of the drops for most of this season.
Chark seems like Minshew’s guy. Westbrook seems like Nick Foles’ guy.
At the end of the day, never bet on the team that always finds a way to lose games. That team is the Bengals. I’m going to bet the Jaguars straight up in this game at (-180).
Miami Dolphins (+17) at Buffalo Bills
The Bills have done nothing on offense to prove they deserve to be that big of a favorite. The Dolphins have done nothing to prove they deserve to have a single penny bet on them. This is just a dumb line because the Dolphins exist in the first place. The NFL would just be better off if the Dolphins and Washington didn’t exist.
I don’t know. Maybe take the Dolphins getting the points, but i’d feel really stupid betting on the Dolphins, only to see them lose by 40. Just parlay the Bills to win straight up, and figure the rest out later.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2) at Tennessee Titans
If you are forced to watch even a moment of this game, you are either a masochist or you lost a terrible bet. The Titans are so desperate, they are turning to Ryan Tannehill to improve the offense. Turning to Ryan Tannehill is the equivalent of getting into a 1989 Toyota Corolla in the hopes of driving faster on the highway.
The Chargers probably just suck. They have suffered too many injuries to keep a competent team on the field, and just the existence of Melvin Gordon has made this team infinitely worse on offense, for some reason.
This game is the sadness that descends on football, but is usually reserved for Week 14 or 15, when two teams have packed it in, neither wants to win, and they are basically just occupying a 100 yard piece of grass for three hours to an ambivalent crowd that couldn’t find anyone to give their tickets away to.
I dunno, take the Chargers getting points I guess.
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
I am rock hard for this game, everyone. The late afternoon slate leaves so so so much to be desired, but this game really is a gem. I’m currently writing this as I stare off at a setting sun on my lanai overlooking the beach. There are a million things to do out here. On Sunday, i’ll be watching this game.
Lamar Jackson is redefining the game as a quarterback, as he is seemingly bulletproof when it comes to injuries, as he leads his team in rushing, and far and away leads the NFL in all quarterback related running categories.
Russell Wilson is having arguably the best season of his career. He is the favorite to win the MVP at this point of the season. Every year, we say that the Seahawks are in a rebuilding year, and every year, this team finds it’s way to the top of the standings. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are the West Coast Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Honestly, i’m taking the Seahawks here. They have the feel of a Super Bowl contender this season, and this is one of those games where, if you are a contender, you find a way to put this game away.
New Orleans Saints (+3) at Chicago Bears
One of the things that made the Bears so great last season was their ability to to stay healthy. When I did season previews on this team, I pointed out how random this was and how tough it was to replicate. They have missed multiple games from Mitch Trubisky. Akiem Hicks went on injured reserve this week. Kyle Long, too. Taylor Gabriel has missed multiple games due to a concussion. The offensive line has gone from middling to bad over the course of the season.
On the other side, this team was expected to fade when Drew Brees went down with injury. Instead, they have risen like a Phoenix, with Teddy Bridgewater being the game manager this team has needed. They might be the team to beat in the NFC with Bridgewater, and are probably the favorites in the league with Brees. The Saints have won without Alvin Kamara being effective, and they are able to pray on the Bears biggest weakness, which is their inability to move the ball downfield effectively and efficiently.
Take the Saints getting points on the road while you can, because when Brees comes back, ,you aren’t going to get that option again.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Dallas Cowboys
I don’t know, just bet on whichever team you think will crap the bed less on national television.
New England Patriots (+10) at New York Jets
Good on the Jets for not packing it in, and going out and beating the fraud of a football team that is the Dallas Cowboys. The Patriots are a real football team, though. They are the gatekeeper through which every other team has to operate through.
Until further notice, bet the Patriots, and don’t ever, EVER second guess it.
Check out Brandon on Twitter at @theBman
He is also the founder of FANCY BOYS CLUB