Andrew WK, the greatest musician of all time, had an amazing song called “Don’t Stop Living in the Red.” Last year, that song pretty much defined by gambling season. I spent the whole year in the red, and was never able to climb out.
Not this year, though, babayyyyy! Last week I advised people to bet the spread on New England and Kansas City, and to take Seattle and the Rams straight up. I followed my own NFL betting advice, hit a clean four team parlay at 18-1 odds, and am comfortably in the black going into week three. There are enough bad teams in the NFL this year that betting against them is found money, and you can improve your odds every time by simply parlaying them. This week? The Patriots are playing the Jets. The Cowboys are playing the Dolphins. The Seahawks are getting the colossally-screwed Steelers. If you bet the Cowboys and Patriots against the spread and the Seahawks straight up, you get 4.5-to-1 odds. Adding the Packers to win straight up to the parlay brings you up to 5.8-to-1 odds. Then, if you like the Raiders to cover 8 points against the Vikings, bring them in to bring the odds to 12-to-1. Bet the Raiders to win straight up? 25-to-1 odds. And there is the sweet spot, people, because when it’s time to party we will always party hard!
Tennessee Titans (-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Every year. Every damn year. People joke about these two teams playing each other on Thursday Night Football every season. And every season, they play each other on Thursday night football. If you have a loved one, I’d suggest using up this Thursday as a date night. Go to a movie. Maybe the new It movie. Hustlers is getting Oscar buzz. Rambo: Last Blood is probably a dumb good time. Go see Downtown Abbey if you want the opportunity to sleep in a movie theater.
As for the game, last week Marcus Mariota showed his complete lack of ability to be an NFL quarterback if he isn’t being carried by a running game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars, when they aren’t fighting each other, are competent enough to force Mariota to beat them through the air, which he can’t do. The problem is, the Titans also have a defense good enough to shut down a team that continues to rely on Leonard Fournette as if he can run the ball for more than three yards.
Titans at Jaguars Betting Tip: This match is a total crap shoot, and the only true loser is anyone who has to watch this show, but i’m gonna take the Jaguars to win straight up, then pretend like i’m not gonna be watching every moment of this stupid slog.
Atlanta Falcons (+2) at Indianapolis Colts
I knew it was gonna happen. No matter how I bet the Eagles/Falcons game last week, I was screwed. Anyway, the Falcons showed up for approximately two minutes of the game and ended up winning when I had the Eagles straight up. I find it stunning that the Falcons are now on their second straight offensive coordinator who doesn’t know how to use Julio Jones, the best wide receiver in football. Hard to come up with Falcons betting tips with such inconsistent usage.
On the other side, the Colts look like a team that really knows who they are and what they are about. They are surviving on good line play, which could make them a favorite for my future Colts betting tips. If they can keep the pocket clean for Jacoby Brissett, then they are going to be in every game.
Falcons at Colts Betting Tip: Like an idiot, I’m gonna take the Falcons straight up to win, and then feel like a complete idiot when Jacoby Brissett puts up 300 passing yards and the Falcons throw the ball to Jones twice all day, like some shemps.
Baltimore Ravens (+7) at the Kansas City Chiefs
I’m gonna start by saying the under/over is 55 points, which could very well hit by half time. The Ravens have run roughshod over two teams already this season. Those teams’ defenses were arguably just as mediocre as the Chiefs. On the other hand, it doesn’t look like there is any team in the NFL that is going to slow down the Chiefs offense, especially not one that let Kyler Murray throw all over the field on them last week.
Ravens at Cheifs Betting Tip: This game is like the bizarro version of Jaguars vs. Titans, because in this game, the winners are the people who get to watch it. I’m looking forward to this game more than any other game so far this football season, and I’m not sure how great I feel about giving Ravens or Chiefs betting tips for this game at all, but i’m leaning towards taking the Chiefs straight up to win, and parlaying it with the over.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6) at Buffalo Bills
Oh man, I love the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen is a semi-talented gunslinger who looks like he just wants to play schoolyard football. He throws to an anonymous group of speed burners and Cole Beasley. Frank Gore, who recently turned 70, is still dominating the carries out of the backfield. The team is 2-0, and one of the big surprises early on.
The Bengals looked like a team that was completely overmatched by the San Francisco 49ers last week. They got the absolute doors blown off them by Jimmy Garoppolo, and someone named Deebo Samuel. They are starting to show themselves as a bottom 5 team in the NFL this season.
Bengals at Bills Betting Tip: Having said all of that, my instinct just keeps going to the fact that the Bills probably aren’t this good, and the Bengals aren’t this bad, and this is a trap week for the Bills. I don’t know. I’m going for it. Give me the points, I‘ll take the Bengals.
Denver Broncos (+8) at Green Bay Packers
Does Von Miller still exist? When Vic Fangio was named the head coach of the Denver Broncos, the biggest hype about the team was going to be the unleashing of Miller and Bradley Chubb. While Chubb has flashed signs of promise in the defense, Von has been a non-factor. He has totaled 3 solo tackles this season, while looking lost in space. Miller is at his best when he is bull rushing the quarterback, but it appears that in Vic Fangio’s defense, his job is more to stand around and wait to see if a running back comes out of the backfield. This probably isn’t the best way to use one of the best defensive players in the NFL, but that’s just me.
Broncos at Packers Betting Tip: As said earlier, i’m locking in the Packers winning straight up along with the Cowboys, Patriots, Raiders, and Seahawks.
Detroit Lions (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles
I really, really, really, really hate the idea of betting on either of these teams. Unless you are throwing together a 16 team parlay and absolutely have to bet on one of these teams, save your money. The strength of the Lions this season was supposed to be improved defensive line play. They aren’t pressuring the quarterback enough to save their secondary. The Eagles lost what felt like ten players on Sunday night.
Lions at Eagles Betting Tip: If you told me that both of these teams were going to lose ten games this season, i’d believe you. If you told me both of these teams were going to win nine games this season, i’d believe you. I have no feel for either one beyond the fact that i’d still bet against either one making the playoffs this season.
Miami Dolphins (+22) at Dallas Cowboys
Now that is a line! It truly shows to the incompetence of the Dolphins that you can’t even bet on the Cowboys to win this game straight up, no matter how hard they stack the odds. For those who are gloriously unaware, the Dolphins are an unreal trash fire, and anybody with any talent is getting out of dodge as soon as they can. And somehow this blatant tank job is working. They finessed a first round pick out of the Steelers for Minkah Fitzpatrick, which is funny because the Steelers aren’t gonna be good this year, and might have just gifted the Dolphins a top 10 pick in the draft.
But forecasting the NFL draft in April isn’t why we are here, folks. I mean, it is for Dolphins fans, but not football fans who enjoy good football. I’m actually interested in the prop action for this game. Like, I want to be able to bet on the under/over for how many rushing yards Ezekiel Elliott will have in the first half before they shut him down for the day.
Dolphins at Cowboys Betting Tip: The Dolphins offense is spectacularly trash. The Cowboys defense is not. I can see the Dolphins randomly scoring 10 points at the end of this, after the Cowboys have pulled their starters. But that will basically put the final score at 42-10, so i’m not too concerned about betting the Cowboys.
New York Jets (+23.5) at New England Patriots
Adam Gase vs. Bill Belichick is the coaching equivalent of Goofus and Gallant. Gase looked out of his element in Miami. Now he is so hysterically out of his element in New York, that he might have to fire his Mini Me, offensive coordinator and “guy who isn’t tall enough to ride the roller coasters at Six Flags,” Dowell Loggains, to avoid having to get fired himself.
Unless Sam Darnold is able to come back with a horrible bout of the kissing disease, it’s going to be third stringer Lucas Falk going out there trying not to get murdered.
Oakland Raiders (+8.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Sooooo are we just assuming the Vikings are good? I’ve watched both of the Vikings games, and i’m absolutely not ready to admit this team is good. The Raiders also aren’t good, but they are playing loose football and actually buy in to what Jon Gruden is selling.
On the other hand, the Vikings look like they can’t wait to crap the bed every fourth quarter. They had every chance in the world to come back against a Packers team that looked more than willing to give the game away. I guess that’s what happens when your quarterback pulls a Houdini when the quarter rolls over to the 4th.
Raiders at Vikings Betting Tip: This line is too high. If it was four points, then I could maybe kinda be talked into the Vikings. 8.5 is a silly number, and I think the Raiders easily cover the spread.
New York Giants (+7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Giants at Bucs Betting Tip: Just stay away from this game. What are you really gonna do? Take Jameis Winston giving a touchdown, or Daniel Jones in his first start getting a touchdown? I’m staying away from this game like it’s Wal Mart on Black Friday.
Houston Texans (+3) at Wherever they call home Chargers
The Chargers are used to playing road games, even when they are at home. Their stadium is a hotbed for opposing teams’ fans because the Chargers have no fans to take the tickets, plus, who doesn’t like California in the fall. Just a certain way the smog hits you while you ironically get your foot run over by an electric car…
Anyway, the Chargers lost an absolutely brutal game in Detroit against a team they had no business losing to. The Texans survived a game they had no business losing to. Both teams had offense that looked much better in week one, and there is a chance that both are able to right the ship this week. The Chargers are injured and have had some struggles getting to the quarterback. The Texans have some secondary issues that might actually be play calling related. Unfortunately for them, Romeo Crennel is still the defensive coordinator.
Texans at Chargers Betting Tip: In the end, it might come down to which team’s kicker you trust more, and if I’ve learned one thing over the years, it’s to never trust a Chargers kicker. I’ll take the Texans plus the points, and probably sneak a parlay in there, too.
New Orleans Saints (+4.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Notoriously a great home field advantage, the Seahawks just barely survived the Bengals in week one. The Saints find themselves in really rough territory early on, needing to lean heavily on Alvin Kamara with Drew Brees out of action. Coming into the game, the Seahawks have only given up 57.5 rushing yards per game, good for fourth best in the NFL early on and have only given up six first downs on the ground so far this season.
If the Saints want to contend, they need to get Teddy Bridgewater going. The problem is, when your backup is behind Drew Brees, they don’t get a lot of playing time. While the Seahawks defense is a step down from the Rams defense last week, there is still reason for concern that Seattle can shut down the run and time up their blitzes to make Teddy miserable trying to pass on Sunday.
Saints at Seahawks Betting Tip: I think the Saints are going to survive the Brees injury because the NFC South isn’t as good as anticipated early on, but the Seahawks are probably going to be able to win this one. I’ll take Seattle straight up to win.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) at San Francisco 49ers
The Steelers are 11th in the NFL in rushing defense, which should be able to hold form against a hodgepodge 49ers rushing attack. On the other hand, the Steelers have the fourth worst pass defense in the NFL, which is why they foolishly traded a potential top 10 pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick to try to shore up the passing defense. The problem is, Fitzpatrick will be limited this week with minimal practice time. By passer rating, Jimmy Garappalo is the 10th best quarterback in the NFL early on.
The 49ers should be able to shred this defense, and that’s before we even get into the Steelers’ offensive problems, where they will now be relying on Mason Rudolph. James Conner may have turned back into a pumpkin.
Steelers at 49ers Betting Tip: I’m gonna take the 49ers straight up, while probably regret not taking the better odds at -7.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Ok. So wait. Let’s just pump the brakes a bit. After getting the piss kicked out of them by the Titans, a team with a good defense, the Browns were able to beat up on the Jets, a team that is flaming pile of baby diapers. On the other hand, the Rams have beaten the Panthers even though they had Christian McCaffery in “god mode,” and turned a prime time game against the Saints into a low key drubbing.
Rams at Browns Betting Tip: The Rams are in good health. The Jets decided to try to murder David Njoku in a play that somehow, some inexplicable way, wasn’t considered a penalty. This is going to be the best game of the week, non Chiefs/Ravens division. The under/over is at 49. I’m just gonna take the over and enjoy the game.
Chicago Bears (-4) at Washington Redskins
The Bears are sixth in the NFL so far this season against the run. The Redskins have somehow only given up two sacks this season and have thrown zero interceptions. If the Bears can’t get to Case Keenum, then he has shown that he can make teams pay…at least in the first half. Somehow, this team shuts down in the second half. What exactly does Jay Gruden do at halftime? Sudoku? Because he sure isn’t game planning.
On the other side, the Bears have scored one touchdown this season, and in their win last week, were completely bailed out by a terrible roughing the passer call, followed by an incredibly lucky timeout with less than a second left, FOLLOWED by a kicker who they didn’t trust to kick last week making a 53 yard field goal as time expired. Oh, and in two games, the Bears have completed a grand total of 16 passes to wide receivers. That is next level bad, right there.
Bears at Redskins Betting Tip: Maybe this is the week the Bears turn it around. But this could be the week the Redskins put a full game together and get a victory. I’m leaning toward the latter, but not willing to commit. I’m just gonna stay away and keep a bucket to vomit in nearby when I watch the Bears offense.
For more thoughts from Brandon, follow him on Twitter @theBman
Brandon is also the founder of entertainment site Fancy Boys Club
Brandon can also be found doing a weekly Youtube show here on Football Absurdity…at least he thinks he does. If not, then why does he talk to Waleed on webcam every week?
