(Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/RB_Derrick_Henry_Titans%2C_2016.jpg under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/)
As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and PPR leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best running back value lies.
Derrick Henry ADP and AAV
Standard: 17th among RBs, 33rd overall
PPR: 19th among RBs, 38th overall
Derrick Henry Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $38
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 13th | 186.3 | 17th | 11.6 |
| 2017 | 25th | 124.0 | 37th | 7.8 |
| 2016 | 38th | 92.7 | 52nd | 6.6 |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 16th | 201.3 | 22nd | 12.6 |
| 2017 | 37th | 135.0 | 48th | 8.4 |
| 2016 | 44th | 105.7 | 58th | 7.6 |
FANTASY USAGE
| Carries | Carries Per Game | Targets | Targets Per Game | |
| 2018 | 215 | 13.4 | 18 | 1.1 |
| 2017 | 176 | 11.0 | 17 | 1.0 |
| 2016 | 110 | 7.3 | 15 | 1.0 |
Overview: Henry exploded in the final quarter of the 2018 fantasy season, racking up 585 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns in the last four weeks. His limited production in the rest of the season, however, has owners nervous. The question, of course, is which Derrick Henry will we get in 2019?
Strategy: Our Derrick Henry Auction Value ($200 Budget): $30
We like Henry, even though our auction value is less than AAV. He has a solid line, a QB who can’t put the game script on his shoulders, and a powerful running style that can bowl through 8-in-the-box. The limited production over most of 2018 doesn’t bother us. What does limit us from paying high-end RB2 money is his ceiling. He doesn’t catch passes. His team has trouble moving the ball down the field. There’s no real outline for him to finish as a mid-RB1 like there is with similarly ranked backs Aaron Jones and Devonta Freeman. Since he’s not going to be a solid RB1, we feel he’s worth mid-to-low RB2 money and it’s better to see which RB2 drops to a decent value and grab him.
Best Case Scenario: Henry continues to have flashes of brilliance (although expecting him to retain his end-of-season pace is ridiculous) and finishes as a top-12 back.
Worst Case Scenario: Henry’s usage and offense continues to stymie owners and he finishes as RB 20-24.
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