(Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9d/Mike_Godwin_photographed_by_Voice_of_America_%28Cambodia%29%2C_September_2017.png under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/)
As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and points per game leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best wide receiver value lies.
Chris Godwin ADP and AAV
Standard: 21st among RBs, 53rd overall
PPR: 20th among RBs, 48th overall
Chris Godwin Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $30
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 25th | 126.2 | 34th | 7.9 |
| 2017 | 69th | 58.5 | 79th | 3.9 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 27th | 185.2 | 25th | 11.6 |
| 2017 | 71st | 92.5 | 84th | 6.2 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
FANTASY USAGE
| Receptions | Receptions Per Game | Targets | Targets Per Game | |
| 2018 | 59 | 3.7 | 95 | 6.0 |
| 2017 | 34 | 2.1 | 55 | 3.5 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Overview: Entering his 3rd year, Godwin is poised to break out for Tampa Bay, who led the league in passing yards in 2018. The drawback is his QB is inconsistent, and beasts Mike Evans and OJ Howard are also going to devour targets.
Strategy: Our Chris Godwin Auction Value ($200 Budget): $18
Okay, let’s step back for a moment and check out that average auction value: A crazy $30. We’re higher than most and we have him for $18. This is why this site has built such a high reputation for being good at auction. Seriously, we’re just a small group of friends making this site but, currently, if you google “2019 fantasy football auction values” we are the number one hit. That’s because we understand the organic nature of auction, whereas most other sites just take their draft rankings and convert them to dollar values using a strict formula. Sure, we all have Godwin going as a mid-WR2. Sure, that would place him at around $30 if you take your rankings and straight up convert them to auction values. But that’s not how auction works. How auction works is that, when most teams have their WR1 and a few have WR2s, there’s a strong chance at least one remaining WR2 won’t have enough owners lusting after them to go for the auction version of 3rd/4th round. So we just put a bunch of these $30 players at $15-$25, knowing at least one will drop to that value. Chris Godwin is in this category: If you’ve in love with him, go ahead and bid $30, but if you just want strong WR2 value, then play the waiting game. People aren’t going nuts to outbid each other for the WR20.
That said, in draft, we love grabbing Godwin towards the end of the 4th round. As mentioned, Tampa Bay led the league in passing yards, they can support two great WRs and a TE.
Best Case Scenario: Tampa Bay continues to lean heavily on the pass, rather than put the ball in the hands of their horrible running game. Godwin becomes a high-end WR2.
Worst Case Scenario: Tampa Bay has QB problems, Godwin still finishes as a top 24 WR.
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